Coronavirus (2021) thread

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shemnel said:
There are a few problems with both approaches.

can you really act suppressively with data that is 'flashy' and could simply represent a steady trend but the reporting means it looks like an increase? Equally should you wait and see what happens when the reporting date data is telling you things are going up? 'Out of date' is a misnomer, as it represents the actual date, but i understand you just use that as a label.

for what it's worth, i am very confident that there are batch processes that compare both sets of data. The speed at which variant %age breakdown of cases was produced (weeks ago, not recently) told me that to do that, there was sequencing already happening ages ago. Then there is access to data we simply dont have in good time, that were initially used as parameters in the crappy tier system.

the communication between the data production and the people who make decisions on what to do with it, or level of interest in what it means (across the board) is another matter entirely. Yes i think you're right in that Bolton data was pretty obviously going up but i am afraid i completely disagree that it was not seen in public health, it's just a question on why there wasn't 'apparent' action.
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To clarify I am NOT saying it was not seen. As I said I presumed strongly it was. And I understand the reasons why it is difficult to know whether to act swiftly and be wrong if the final data peters out.

I do not envy anyone in the job of making these decisions.

I just feel the media maybe could have been made more aware and perhaps issued warnings about a need to be cautious just in case. Or seen it themselves and acted proactively not retroactively.

But the media do not investigate much these days. They really are sheep being fed by others and going baaa in. the local accent of their ethos and readership.

I trust the scientists to make the right call. And the government to try. Though they have a tough job balancing responsibilities. I am neither a scientist or politician and envy neither in these circustances. But guess I am a kind of journalist and I feel they have been very poor in the past 18 months.
 
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Scotland data:

2 deaths and 641 cases today. It was 0 death and 414 cases last Friday.

A big increase (about 30% week to week increase NIcola Sturgeion says) - though more testing is a factor. Nicola Sturgeon says R number could be as high as 1.3

Also positivity has been rising and is now 4.4%.

Hospital patients up 7 to 90 and on ventilators up 2 to 6.

Glasgow is showing signs of stabilising. And even after some time of high numbers the hospital data in the city is not escalating much if at all there.

But Dundee now the latest area to see a significant rise.

She stresses to younger people a 'higher' percentage are now getting sick and this virus CAN make the young very ill. So get the vaccine now being offered to you she insists.

As it has got to younger ages they are now seeing some 'quite high numbers' of people not turning up for the vaccination.
 
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Healdplace said:
But the media do not investigate much these days. They really are sheep being fed by others and going baaa in. the local accent of their ethos and readership.

I trust the scientists to make the right call. And the government to try. Though they have a tough job balancing responsibilities. I am neither a scientist or politician and envy neither in these circustances. But guess I am a kind of journalist and I feel they have been very poor in the past 18 months.
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Totally agree, my problem is with lazy, cut-and-paste, click-bait journalism. Cannot believe the difference in quality between the Covid analysis I get from my paid-for New York Times subscription and the BBC, and that's nothing to do with perceived bias, just quality.
 
ONS weekly report today says cases in England pretty stable week to week. Though again this is 5 day old data.

One in 1120 versus last week 1 in 1110

Scotland much bigger change - UP from 1 in 1960 to 1 in 630.

Curiously England is the only one of the four nations that has fallen week to week.

Even Wales (1 in 3850) and N Ireland (1 in 820) are up from last week.
 
Nicola Sturgeon asked if any changes have been noticed in hospital data - re age range/ if they have had or not had vaccinations.

She said there are signs (not fully confirmed) that people are NOT staying in hospital as long or getting transferred to icu as often as in the past.

Also warns that 100 in hospital is not overwhelming the NHS but 'you can go from 100 to 1000 pretty quickly'.
 
ZOE APP

3226 cases predicted - up 327 - another big rise predicted.

Symptomatic cases to - 47, 526 - up 2812 from 44, 714. Another bigger rise than yesterday. But only slightly.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


TAMESIDE - up to a level they do not even have a colour for!

2552 / 11, 404 V 2032 / 9079

Not seen a place go into five figures on Zoe before.

They seem to be looking into this as something has long seeme very wrong with their data here or elae Tameside has a lot of peope in real life with no idea they are ill. As nothing in the case data in real life put Tameside anywhere but the LOWEST in GM right now. Not the worst in the UK as has been claime here for dayt now.

BUT


New big watch area in the NW in WEST LANCASHIRE (Region betweemn Southport and Wigan).

Straight into the dark red zone at 589 / 5222
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data:

2 deaths and 641 cases today. It was 0 death and 414 cases last Friday.

A big increase (about 30% week to week increase NIcola Sturgeion says) - though more testing is a factor. Nicola Sturgeon says R number could be as high as 1.3

Also positivity has been rising and is now 4.4%.

Hospital patients up 7 to 90 and on ventilators up 2 to 6.

Glasgow is showing signs of stabilising. And even after some time of high numbers the hospital data in the city is not escalating much if at all there.

But Dundee now the latest area to see a significant rise.

She stresses to younger people a 'higher' percentage are now getting sick and this virus CAN make the young very ill. So get the vaccine now being offered to you she insists.

As it has got to younger ages they are now seeing some 'quite high numbers' of people not turning up for the vaccination.
Click to expand...
Yes, this was reported this week
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Half of appointments missed at Glasgow mass vaccine hub

The BBC has learned a "considerable" number of no shows were recorded this weekend at Glasgow's Hydro.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


BURY 1167 / 6190 V 1057 / 5606 Another rise today but modest

BOLTON 1237 / 4365 V 747 / 2638 -Back up a tier sadly.

MANCHESTER 2028 / 3720 V 1497/ 2745 - another rise here unfortunately.


These three and anomaly of crazy Tameside still the only GM boroughs in watch zones on Zoe. Though Tameside seem to be sensibky being evaluated by Zoe as it is pretty obviously wrong somewhere.


Other GM Areas:-


OLDHAM 60 / 258 V 51/ 219 - slight rise here.

ROCHDALE 101 / 463 V 69 / 318 V 63 edging up again today

SALFORD 71 / 283 V 52 / 207 a rise again.

STOCKPORT 105 / 363 V 83 / 286 - a bigger rise here than in recent days

TRAFFORD 155 / 663 124 / 531 - similar scale of uptick to Stockport

WIGAN 148 / 457 V 115 / 356 - also rising as above.


First time every borough is on an upward track.
 
Elsewhre on Zoe

Hillingdon, London enters the watch zones

Leicester up to one of the worst in England.

Leeds rises again to be in the same range as Bolton.

Kitrklees still high.

But Stratford on Avon - whilst still well over most of GM - has been falling in past days.
 
Rammy Blue said:
For what age groups though? Can this be given to the over 18’s?
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Is being used with those over 18 in the United States. Belgium paused its use the other day after a woman in her 30s passed away, so further investigations taking place. The Dutch are using it with everyone.

Read that the U.K. might also keep some stocks back to use as a booster for older people later in the year; it can be stored comparatively easier than others.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE APP

3226 cases predicted - up 327 - another big rise predicted.

Symptomatic cases to - 47, 526 - up 2812 from 44, 714. Another bigger rise than yesterday. But only slightly.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


TAMESIDE - up to a level they do not even have a colour for!

2552 / 11, 404 V 2032 / 9079

Not seen a place go into five figures on Zoe before.

They seem to be looking into this as something has long seeme very wrong with their data here or elae Tameside has a lot of peope in real life with no idea they are ill. As nothing in the case data in real life put Tameside anywhere but the LOWEST in GM right now. Not the worst in the UK as has been claime here for dayt now.

BUT


New big watch area in the NW in WEST LANCASHIRE (Region betweemn Southport and Wigan).

Straight into the dark red zone at 589 / 5222
Click to expand...

not sure if this helps but Tameside seem well ahead with Vaccines. I’m 31 and got mine a couple of weeks ago now when most places were doing the over 40s

my grandparents were fully vaccinated by the first week in January too
 
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