Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Following on from the positive info from Israel, my own noddy look at the England hospital data here.

Graph is the proportion of over 80s recorded in hospital deaths. We expect that to drop as they were the first cohort vaccinated. Vaccination started Dec 8th, so you'd expect an impact on deaths to start coming through about a month later. Here's the data. Daily numbers are plotted in red, weekly average in blue and the overall deaths in grey on the right hand axis.

View attachment 10355

Exactly what we'd expect - a fairly steady decline in over 80s as a proportion of the total.

I've also had a look at the first wave last April. Rather a different picture:

View attachment 10356

We see the opposite - more older people dying in hospital over time as a proportion.

I think this is pretty convincing evidence of a vaccine effect - but then the easiest person to fool is always yourself!

It's possible to roughly quantify the effect - it works out at ~10% reduction in total deaths, or 25 people a day are currently being saved through vaccination in English Hospitals. The total in the UK community can be expected to be quite a bit higher - I think most out of hospital deaths are elderly.

This is great news and fits all the other data.

The midweek out of hospital deaths in England past two weeks were well down on previous sky high weeks and the care home outbreaks plummeting in the Northern Ireland update above all match the suggestion that the vaccines are saving lives and stopping infections outside hospital too.

Hence the hospital numbers (patients and ventilated patients) in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland spiralling down very fast in past 2 weeks as fewer in the most vulnerable categories getting sick enough to need this.

 

[Claytop]

Following on from the positive info from Israel, my own noddy look at the England hospital data here.

Graph is the proportion of over 80s recorded in hospital deaths. We expect that to drop as they were the first cohort vaccinated. Vaccination started Dec 8th, so you'd expect an impact on deaths to start coming through about a month later. Here's the data. Daily numbers are plotted in red, weekly average in blue and the overall deaths in grey on the right hand axis.

View attachment 10355

Exactly what we'd expect - a fairly steady decline in over 80s as a proportion of the total.

I've also had a look at the first wave last April. Rather a different picture:

View attachment 10356

We see the opposite - more older people dying in hospital over time as a proportion.

I think this is pretty convincing evidence of a vaccine effect - but then the easiest person to fool is always yourself!

It's possible to roughly quantify the effect - it works out at ~10% reduction in total deaths, or 25 people a day are currently being saved through vaccination in English Hospitals. The total in the UK community can be expected to be quite a bit higher - I think most out of hospital deaths are elderly.

Without sounding too negative, is this likely to be partly because the over 80's didn't make it to hospital or were no space for them?

 

[mosssideblue]

Weren't some of the tories rebelling against the last Lockdown so surely if they carry this on for months they are going to fight back. Same with the general public, we've done everything asked so far, if they keep moving the goalposts then there will anger from everywhere.

Not if they're moved for good reason

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Interesting! Do they have underlying health conditions?

In addition to this I have just heard that my mum and dad will be done at Woodhouse Park next Wednesday. Mum with COPD and dad had a heart attack a few years ago. Both just under 60.

You're going to be hearing about your parents very, very soon I'd say.

 

[mancity1]

If you think it’s bad in Australia think again - there’s plenty of folk here that would swop places with you.

You really don’t want to be where the UK is right now.

Despite being in lockdown and vaccinating folk at a rate of knots we still have thousands of infections / hundreds of deaths each day because of how infectious this virus is.

You just need to pray that the lockdown in Australia works cos if it doesn’t those it won’t be long before those 14 cases become 1400 cases with deaths to follow a few weeks later.

No I truly am sorry for the position you are in , its a human disaster in non waring times.

The point I was making was evert time we have community transmission we go into lockdowns of the most extreme kind and we have to learn to live with the virus , like many strains of flu and virus and eventually it will morph into flu strains it will be around with us for many generations if in fact for all time.

Lockdowns particularly severe lengthy lockdowns are by and large ineffective in keeping people safe from the virus.

Use the best model available and replicate it.

Taiwan have the best model and hear in Oz NSW have the best model.

NSW have the best contact tracing , carry the vast majority of overseas travellers including those with recent strains like you have in the UK and keep the economy open as much as possible without closing borders further killing jobs and livelihoods at the first sign of a case.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Not if they're moved for good reason

Afternoon Mosssi, The problem i think the government might have is that people are getting fed up with the lockdowns which are lets be honest half hearted. This current lockdown and the one before Christmas is nothing like the one back in the spring, t just reduces cases down slower than the original lockdown. I think it would be much better for everyone to have a much stricter lockdown for 2 weeks than what we currently have for 2-3 mths.

 

[paulchapo]

Anyone in the trafford area know of 60-65 getting it yet? That's my dad's age and im genuinely curious! The day my mum and dad get theirs is the day i breathe a huge sigh of relief

Me I had mine three weeks ago, no underlying health conditions except the odd psychopathic tendancies now and then lol.

 

[cleavers]

I think it would be much better for everyone to have a much stricter lockdown for 2 weeks than what we currently have for 2-3 mths.

From where we were 6 weeks ago, with >60.000 cases per day, a stricter 2 week lockdown would not have brought case numbers down to this level. It's taken 6 weeks for a reason, it was totally out of control, and in large part it got there through schools being open pre christmas helping the spread, especially in the then tier 2 london area, where the new variant spread much more quickly.

A stricter lockdown in November might have helped, but that ship sailed in November.

 

[twosips]

Me I had mine three weeks ago, no underlying health conditions except the odd psychopathic tendancies now and then lol.

And you're in Trafford? Interesting! My parents local GP is the delamere medical centre in stretford

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

From where we were 6 weeks ago, with >60.000 cases per day, a stricter 2 week lockdown would not have brought case numbers down to this level. It's taken 6 weeks for a reason, it was totally out of control, and in large part it got there through schools being open pre christmas helping the spread, especially in the then tier 2 london area, where the new variant spread much more quickly.

A stricter lockdown in November might have helped, but that ship sailed in November.

Please explain why a stricter lockdown with a lot more people staying at home would not brought cases down quicker?