Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Churchlawtonblue said:
So its not the lockdown that is bringing the cases down faster.

That doesn't mean that a stricter lockdown wouldn't bring the cases down even quicker would it?
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That's a different question entirely and not one I can answer. What is clear though is the fact that almost a year on a far bigger proportion of the population has either had it already or has been vaccinated.

I might have had it as recently I took part in a study for Imperial College to see if I had antibodies. The home test kit showed that I had IgM antibodies and these are the ones that are created when you are first infected. I tested negative for Covid immediately after but there is a good chance I had an asymptomatic case recently.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Following on from the positive info from Israel, my own noddy look at the England hospital data here.

Graph is the proportion of over 80s recorded in hospital deaths. We expect that to drop as they were the first cohort vaccinated. Vaccination started Dec 8th, so you'd expect an impact on deaths to start coming through about a month later. Here's the data. Daily numbers are plotted in red, weekly average in blue and the overall deaths in grey on the right hand axis.

View attachment 10355

Exactly what we'd expect - a fairly steady decline in over 80s as a proportion of the total.

I've also had a look at the first wave last April. Rather a different picture:

View attachment 10356

We see the opposite - more older people dying in hospital over time as a proportion.

I think this is pretty convincing evidence of a vaccine effect - but then the easiest person to fool is always yourself!

It's possible to roughly quantify the effect - it works out at ~10% reduction in total deaths, or 25 people a day are currently being saved through vaccination in English Hospitals. The total in the UK community can be expected to be quite a bit higher - I think most out of hospital deaths are elderly.
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Nice one.

Great post.
 
697. 434 pillar 1 & 2 tests (down from 731, 596 yesterday) to find 1650 more cases.

So positivity will be up a bit.

13, `219 of the cases were from England (up 1298 on yesterday)


UK Cases 1 Jan v 8 Jan v 15 Jan v 22 Jan v 29 Jan v 5 Feb v Today:-


53, 285 v 68, 053 v 55, 761 v 40, 261 v 29, 079 v 19, 114 v 15, 144 Today
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
Than back in April and May?

How is this possible when there is obviously much more activity , more people about and many more places open?
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Here's the data (all settings deaths by day of death). You can clearly see the rate of drop is higher from the 2nd peak

1613148355233.png


How is it possible? Some possibilities:

1) Masks
2) Significant proportion of the population immune now
3) Better controls in workplaces
4) Better compliance to the rules

Your guess is as good as mine though.
 
TINY said:
After 4 days out of hospital under the care of the “virtual Covid ward”, I’m feeling much better. I use the oxygen provided for about an hour a day, usually after my sister has visited and I feel a little winded for talking, which is a strange feeling.

Again it may sound silly but I yawned this morning and felt like I took in a big breath without coughing - that genuinely seemed a million miles away last week.

Making small steps each day, making tea, going out for a drive with the old man and Mrs, no destination just drive around and take in some fresh air.

Since getting Covid and spending a week in hospital, I lost just under 2 stone which I could do with tbf...my appetite completely disappeared leading up to hospital, but the steroids they give you (dexamethasone) is a wonder drug, and I was told to wait for my appetite come back with vengeance; took about an hour!

Me and the old man are taking it very easy whilst trying to making a conscious effort to push to do something each day. Thank Yaya that I have the Mrs though, she has been an absolute God send throughout everything we’ve been through this year, and continues to look after us every day. Not sure if what I would’ve done without her.

Anyone suffering I hope your feeling a bit better today and can see some small light at the end of the tunnel.
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Another week on and further improvements. Today my Dad and I were discharged from the care of the Covid virtual ward, our oxygen levels have remained over 96 for 4 consecutive days, and no oxygen used since last Saturday.

Taking in full breaths still feels amazing!
 
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