Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

Whatever the arguments about case numbers, etc, from what I can see after looking at that Gov UK link hospital admissions aren't exactly hitting catastrophic levels. Less than 1000 in UK hospitals when at the peak in January it was nearly 40,000. All the data suggests the vaccines are working and working very well so unless a totally vaccine resistant variant comes along I don't believe for one moment we will get anywhere near 40,000 Covid hospital patients ever again, regardless of whether restrictions are lifted on June 21st or not.

Need to be looking specifically in areas where the hotspots are to guage real impact. the rest of the country is still very low on Covid so numbers will be dropping due to that. if we look at Bolton for example, then extrapolate that out to the rest of the country we'll have a better idea of where we will be in 3/4 months time if we open up and let it rip.

Edit: Im not suggesting that this is bad, im not sure what happened hospitalisation wise. but UK level hospital figures will be misleading as a barometer.

 

[willipp]

Need to be looking specifically in areas where the hotspots are to guage real impact. the rest of the country is still very low on Covid so numbers will be dropping due to that. if we look at Bolton for example, then extrapolate that out to the rest of the country we'll have a better idea of where we will be in 3/4 months time if we open up and let it rip.

I know my dad was in preston hospital last week and they told him there wasnt a single case of Covid in the whole hospital. Numbers have been rising in Preston for a few weeks now so hopefully thats a sign the vaccine is working.

 

[lancs blue]

You can't all be scientists like myself

You won't be taken seriously with that attitude, a scientist would lay out a comprehensive argument for being correct in their conclusions. You just chose to dismiss semi-log graphs as being "an old stats trick" when they're simply an alternative method of illustrating data trends.

I've no idea whether your or anyone else's data on here has been "manipulated" as I can't be bothered digging out the original data and doing the work myself but don't expect such glib comments to go unchallenged.

 

[splinter]

Latest video from Tim specter just gone up..its looking grim folks..21st June will probably be delayed..up to 20,000 cases next week and 40 deaths per day. Not good.

 

[grunge]

Latest video from Tim specter just gone up..its looking grim folks..21st June will probably be delayed..up to 20,000 cases next week and 40 deaths per day. Not good.

Mostly in the unvaccinated or younger group, but big increases.

India variant r0 looking like its about 6. original variant was 3.

Looks like this variant has different symptoms too. more classic cold symptoms for younger. loss of smell has dropped off the top 10.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Which is why the axis is labelled "Rescaled cases"?



Right. A good way to process data expected to be exponential or not. Let's ask a scientist




Oh dear.

It's rescaled cases of admissions go and do it yourself if you want to check.
I have a PhD in Mathematics and an MSC in Physics, I know what I'm doing with data by the way

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Cheshire East and West about to be joining Manchester in enhanced testing, greater restrictions.
Announcement imminent.

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[roubaixtuesday]

It's rescaled cases of admissions go and do it yourself if you want to check.
I have a PhD in Mathematics and an MSC in Physics, I know what I'm doing with data by the way

You've mislabelled a graph. You've added a baseline to an exponentially growing series which then understates the growth by a significant factor. The data you've once labelled "cases", then claimed is "admission numbers" actually bears no resemblance to the source you claim for the data!

Here's the hospital admission data for the NW, direct from the govt website:



And here's your plot, yellow line:



Whatever you've plotted, it's not NW hospital admissions.

You claim competence in data?

1. Label your data correctly.
2. Present an explanation of how you've processed it
3. Use a visualisation appropriate to the underlying phenomenon.

 

[Manc in London]

Ah the old non linear y-axis trick. There's huge differences in that chart just hidden by the log values. It's a stats trick probably beyond your knowledge

How long are you planning to continue with this spat within this thread?

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Dont upset the covid cartel on here mate.

tell me about it. They're literally mental, they'd have the country lockeddown as there's one hospitalised case in Anglesey.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

You've mislabelled a graph. You've added a baseline to an exponentially growing series which then understates the growth by a significant factor. The data you've once labelled "cases", then claimed is "admission numbers" actually bears no resemblance to the source you claim for the data!

Here's the hospital admission data for the NW, direct from the govt website:

View attachment 18722

And here's your plot, yellow line:

View attachment 18723

Whatever you've plotted, it's not NW hospital admissions.

You claim competence in data?

1. Label your data correctly.
2. Present an explanation of how you've processed it
3. Use a visualisation appropriate to the underlying phenomenon.

1) If you read the previous post you'd realise it was all about admissions. Cases of admissions is just English and you're being pedantic
2) I've mentioned my method you can go an recreate it to see that it's correct
3) this visualisation is the best method to use to compare two growths as it's the actual data

oh and while we're at it the NW has one of the highest unvaccinated over 50's population in the country so generating stats on the NW and pretending other areas of the country will be the same is extremely naive but that's for another day

 

[BerkshireBlue]

How long are you planning to continue with this spat within this thread?

until people realise they're being shortsighted and they aren't thinking of the mental health of the UK population

 

[west didsblue]

Just smiling as the national news just annouced what I posted on here days ago and was accused of having something against Stockport for saying. I said it was in trouble because it was rising much bigger than others and expectations and those 5 day old figures have just worked thriugh and been presented nationally.

Happily it has not got any worse since then. It has flattened much like Bolton did.

That is next weeks news.

Pity these numbers are no use for the lottery.

This thread especially posts from yourself, @roubaixtuesday and a few others provide a much better indication of what's coming up than any bollocks from government ministers. I've lost count of the number of times I've heard absolute shite on the TV and found some real insight based on proper data on here.
Thanks for that.

 

[Manc in London]

until people realise they're being shortsighted and they aren't thinking of the mental health of the UK population

Not sure how you can make the assumption. Regardless, it comes across as personal and has carried over more than one day and over several pages. Most of us get in to spats but this is becoming vendetta-like. It is spoiling the thread. It's ruining my cup a soup and apple.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Yeah, boo to reality, posting mislabelled and manipulated data is the way to go.

NW hospitalisations ~trebled in the last month.

only 40 case over 30 odd days in an almost linear fashion. The vast majority unvaccinated idiots who have been offered a vaccine but haven't taken it up. What's your point?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I've mentioned my method you can go an recreate it to see that it's correct

You haven't described your method other than saying " the scale is just an uplift of new wave adminssions to match the day 0 number of the autumn day 0 number."

It's very obviously not correct. Your graph shows no relation to the numbers on the govt website. I've literally just posted them. They're a completely different shape.

Whatever you've plotted it's not

1. NW cases rescaled as the graph is labelled
2. NW admissions "uplifted" as you now claim

 

[Healdplace]

It was me that said it and my point was you have said that many times that Stockport was in trouble, at some point your were going to get it right.

I think that is pretty unlikely as Stockport has for much of the pandemic had the lowest numbers in Greater Manchester and I regularly reported the race with Trafford for the lowest overall Pop Score which tells you who has fared the best - as in lowest cases per population - across the last 15 months.

For almost all of that time Stockport WAS the best. Just as I routinely report that it has the best vaccination numbers in GM too. Trafford has only quite recenty usurped that lead back over Stockport and is now 173 points ahead. This gap narrowed up to a couple of weeks ago when Stockport was clearly doing better than anywhere and had the lowest Pop Score in GM all this year at just 14.

The reversal since then is clear and obvious and whilst Trafford too has risen Stockport very clearly has done so far more. The numbers tell the story and why I reported them. Going from 14 to 218 in the period that Trafford went from 46 to 174. No argument who did worst there. That period btw is just the last 17 days. Stockport also went from having the lowest weekly case numbers under 50 to now over 600 and chasing down Bolton.

I report on the numbers and these qualified quite clearly for calling attention to the problems in Stockport. But to suggest I only report negatively is absurd as even now Stockport has by far the second best overall record just behind Trafford and it is quite likely that once they get this current outbreak under control when the pandemic is over to the degree it ever can be said to be over that Stockport will emerge with the best overall performance numbers out of the 10 boroughs over the entire pandemic. It is very unlikely not to be second at worst.

 

[Healdplace]

Cheshire East and West about to be joining Manchester in enhanced testing, greater restrictions.
Announcement imminent.

Cheshire Live - News, Sport, events in Chester and around Cheshire

The latest local, sport (incl. Chester FC) and events news in Chester and around Cheshire. Including breaking, live blogs, video and indepth coverage on all the things that matter, from the Cheshire Live team.

www.cheshire-live.co.uk

No surprise sadly as this variant has been radiating outwards from East Lacashire over the past month. They will not the last areas to be caught in this trap.

Still puzzle as to why Liverpool is as yet evading this. Would be good to know how.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Still puzzle as to why Liverpool is as yet evading this. Would be good to know how.

It's coming, unfortunately.

We need to hope that vaccination outruns the virus in the areas which have picked up slower - probably not seeded from India to the same extent - if Liverpool is a month behind then that's a month's more vaccinations before it hits. It could be enough to make the difference, or it could be a way off yet.

 

[shemnel]

No surprise sadly as this variant has been radiating outwards from East Lacashire over the past month. They will not the last areas to be caught in this trap.

Still puzzle as to why Liverpool is as yet evading this. Would be good to know how.

definitely increasing in Merseyside the last wee while now