Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Stockport

Patients per day admitted 24 - 30 May (latest data Gov UK posts - 0 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 0

Patients in hospital per day 26 May - 1 Jun (this data is always more ahead) 2 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 3 / 2

Ventilated in hospital per day 26 May - 1 Jun 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 /0 / 1 / 1

Deaths up to 7 Jun the last death in Stockport was on 22 May.


Bear in mid hospitalisations/ventilators/deaths WILL lag rising cases by a week or two so these are not as probative as they look.

But they are certainly not yet remotely an issue.
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How long since the cases started rising significantly - about a week? If so, one to keep an eye on over the next 10 to 14 days
 
@grunge, so using those 3 links you can get to a % double vaccinated of over 50's by LA level and then you can rank the areas to see where the problem areas are going to be. (or better still weight it by the probablility of hospitalisation by age group). I only did national numbers as I couldn't be bothered looking at subnational but I'd be interested in what comes up. As this is the proper way to measure the risk to the NHS.
 
@grunge in fact if you're going to do the maths on it, as everyone should, and if you can find the probabilities of hospitalisation by age group (it should be out somewhere) and then use this to come up with an estimate for the hospitalisation of unvaccinated population and then sum this number for England. We'll get visibility of how much of a problem we're looking at. I reckon it will be very low
 
M18CTID said:
How long since the cases started rising significantly - about a week? If so, one to keep an eye on over the next 10 to 14 days
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BOLTON HOSPITAL DA

Which is why I pointed out the one or two week lag from cases to hospitalisation to ventilator to death.

But the spike in Bolton was not terribly big.

On 7 May it had 0 admissions.

3 4 or 5 were admitted over the next week

Over the next week 9 was the highest.

The big week was 24 - 30 May (latest data) where for two days it was 10 then 14 (the ONLY double figure day admissions in the past months). Since it has been 6 - 3 - 8 - 1 - 3

On 7 May there were 14 in hospital in Bolton - a week later it was 20 - 7 days on 30.

2 from London, 2 from Yorkshire and 1 from Midlands.

The 1 from the NW was in Tameside.

Last week was 6 with 1 also. Wks before 11 with 2 and 25 with 1.
It peaked at 49 on 27 May and fell daily to 42 on 1 Jun (latest data)

There were 3 on ventilators for the first 12 days of May. Then 5 up to 19 May. It rose steadily to 12 by 30 May

1 June number is 11.

Ventillations lagged admissions as you see and as expected. But seem to have peaked like patients did hopefully.

As for deaths:-

There were 7 Covid deaths in Bolton in the month of May.

In April there were 4.

In March 24.

In February 69.

In January 105


In the first week on June there have been 3

So there is clearly an increase driven by the patients rise but even if it continues to rise due to the lag beyond ventilation numbers then at 3 a week more or less the likely peak it will be nowhere near the 105 in the January wave.

Because of the age of those catching it, of course.

Bolton is showing cases are the issue from the new variant and hospitalisations much less so

But more cases means more of the latter and the ICU and death numbers.

But it looks pretty clear these will not go close to the levels we saw in January unless something unforseem happens.

As in a pandemic it might.
 
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grunge said:
cases spike only really just starting a week ago there and hospitalisations have a 2/3 week lag time.
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No they don’t. Someone posted the data on gap from positive test to a death and in the 2nd wave it was something like 7 days. More moving of the goalposts on here than a kids 5 a side tournament.
 
Scotland data:

TOPS 1000 cases in a day for first time in many weeks. Sad but not unexpected

1 death - was 1 last week

1011 cases - was 677 last week

3.0% positivity - was 2.8% last week

121 patients - same as yesterday - was 114 last week

14 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday - was 10 last week
 
True_Blue69 said:
No they don’t. Someone posted the data on gap from positive test to a death and in the 2nd wave it was something like 7 days. More moving of the goalposts on here than a kids 5 a side tournament.
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News to me, links?

everything i've read stated 1st week is build up, 2nd week is more severe. 3rd/4th week death if it happens. obv has a lot of variations but those were the averages.

I assume your refering to this from Oct last year?

Median (interquartile range) of time from symptom onset to death is currently shorter in the second wave (7 days [IQR 11 days]) compared to the first wave (13 days [IQR 14 days]). However, it should be noted that insufficient time has elapsed since 1st August 2020 to provide sufficient follow-up for this and second-wave records are more incomplete. Little difference is seen in time from hospital admission to death between first and second waves.
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roubaixtuesday said:
"without any data conversion."

Lol.

Whatever you did to that "rescaled" data, which of course you don't tell us, you've managed to reduce a real ~6 fold increase to a presented <2 fold increase for the current wave.

I mean, that's pretty impressive rescaling.

View attachment 18716



Data from here, for NW region, by date reported.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

You're welcome.
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And hospitalisation and death data isn't following the trend. Which is the main point.
We need to protect against the next bad strain which to me says we need to reach herd immunity as quickly as possible by vaccination and infection. All over 45s should be double jabbed by the 21st June which was the reason for chosing that date in the first place (all over 50s jabbed twice - with 8 week regime now all over 45s)
 
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BlueAnorak said:
And hospitalisation and death data isn't following the trend
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Death isn't at the moment. Let's hope it stays that way.

Hospitalisation is. Just see the data already posted on NW hospitalisations above.

And, as posted on multiple occasions, hospitalisations are currently running ~5% of cases, lagged 10 days. We hope that this will fall as vaccinations rise, but we don't know how fast.

1623246574032.png

From https://twitter.com/BristOliver
 
England hospital deaths:

6 with 1 from NW

Only 3 of these were from the past 5 days and 2 were from over 4 months ago so likely will be discounted.

The 1 was in Tameside.

2 in London, 2 in Yorkshire and 1 in Midlands the others

Last week was also 6 with 1 and wks before 11 with 2 and 25 with 1
 
Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

105 cases - was 84 last week

5.0% positivity - was 3.7% last week

1 care home outbreak - same as yesterday - was 2 last week

585 rolling 7 day case total - waa 546 yesterday & 484 last week - edging up again like everywhere but may not matter much (see below)

18 patients - up 3 in day - was 17 last week. Firat rise here in a while.

0 ventilated - was 0 yesterday & last week


AGE RANGES OF PATIENTS TESTING POSITIVE IN THE 584 FROM LAST 7 DAYS (1 patient age not recorded)

0 - 19 (210) 36.0%

20 - 39 (246) 42.1%

40 - 59 (97) 16.6%

60 - 79 (27) 4.6%

80 PLUS (4) 0.7%


Once again the gap grows. 78% UNDER 40 catching it. 5.3% over 60.

Biggest gulf ever and more evidence of the success of the vaccines as this gulf would surely not keep widening otherwise.
 
Presumably one side effect of the rapid spread recently, seemingly in unvaxed cohorts, is that it will edge us close(r) to herd immunity than jabs alone? Because if the younger (not had the vax offered yet) and older (unable or unwilling to have the vax) individuals who are getting infected weren't generally covered by the vax then it achieves the same result via natural infection surely?
 
Healdplace said:
England hospital deaths:

6 with 1 from NW

Only 3 of these were from the past 5 days and 2 were from over 4 months ago so likely will be discounted.

The 1 was in Tameside.

2 in London, 2 in Yorkshire and 1 in Midlands the others

Last week was also 6 with 1 and wks before 11 with 2 and 25 with 1
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RIP to those who have passed..vaccines working well
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Death isn't at the moment. Let's hope it stays that way.

Hospitalisation is. Just see the data already posted on NW hospitalisations above.

And, as posted on multiple occasions, hospitalisations are currently running ~5% of cases, lagged 10 days. We hope that this will fall as vaccinations rise, but we don't know how fast.

View attachment 18730

From https://twitter.com/BristOliver
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No it isn't. Absolutely nothing like January - see various reports on the ages of those being hospitalised and how long they are remaining in hospital for).
 
davealvers said:
Presumably one side effect of the rapid spread recently, seemingly in unvaxed cohorts, is that it will edge us close(r) to herd immunity than jabs alone? Because if the younger (not had the vax offered yet) and older (unable or unwilling to have the vax) individuals who are getting infected weren't generally covered by the vax then it achieves the same result via natural infection surely?
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Let’s hope so. Although I thought the same thing last year, when Bolton, Blackburn etc were struggling with cases.For months on end. I’m amazed that the same places are in this situation again. How is there anyone left to get infected!!
 
True_Blue69 said:
No they don’t. Someone posted the data on gap from positive test to a death and in the 2nd wave it was something like 7 days. More moving of the goalposts on here than a kids 5 a side tournament.
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Uper quartiles are the important stats here - From memory Hospitalisations between 7-10 days from the initial infection, deaths from 18-24 days.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
No it isn't. Absolutely nothing like January - see various reports on the ages of those being hospitalised and how long they are remaining in hospital for).
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I agree it's not the same same as January, but hospitalisations are following the same trend (exponential growth, same doubling time but with a lag) as cases now. Perhaps that will change. Hopefully it will as more vaccinations roll out.

It's around half the number of hospitalisations per case as January - as per the posted graph above. It's disappointing that ration isn't lower.

I agree that there seems to be growing evidence that hospital stays and severity are improved, which should translate to fewer inpatients relatively than hospitalisations. But we would still expect that also to increase proportionally to cases (why wouldn't it?), again hopefully falling as further vaccinations are rolled out.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Possibly the best resource for seeing the ages of people catching it and being vaccinated is LG Inform.
www.local.gov.uk

Coronavirus: council information and support

Useful information and support for councils on novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
www.local.gov.uk www.local.gov.uk
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superb. Much better than the coronavirus dashboard. I'll use this data to calculate the total hospitalisation rates later on. Just looking at the Bolton data as their wave started 7 weeks ago. And guess what there's no exponential growth in the number of deaths whatsoever. I guess the naysayers will say something like give it "one more week". Well how many weeks would you like?
 
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