Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
It's coming, unfortunately.

We need to hope that vaccination outruns the virus in the areas which have picked up slower - probably not seeded from India to the same extent - if Liverpool is a month behind then that's a month's more vaccinations before it hits. It could be enough to make the difference, or it could be a way off yet.

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Liverpool people have far more people double vaccinated ergo hardly any hospitalisations. It's not rocket science is it. 30% for Manchester 40% for Liverpool.
 
Hopefully, the vaccine beats the variants and I’m fairly confident it will. That doesn’t mean we have to be hooked on a so called “freedom day”.

My plans for the weekend have already changed as I can’t go to the rugby league on Fridays, with 2 senior Leeds Rhinos players having caught Covid. People’s social lives are going to be hit and miss for a good while yet and the more important thing is that we try to limit the amount of serious illness.

Fingers crossed things continue to reopen on the 21st but the scientific advisors and hopefully the Government too have better info to judge what is best.
 
Wales is now seeing a rise too.

BUT no panic - as it is not as bad as these figures today suggest - although they are going up daily it seems.

There has been under reporting for about 3 days caused by an issue now identified so there is a lot of backlog in the cases data today. THe numbers will be artuficially hufh for another coupke of days as they catch up on the backlog of not counted data.


TODAY

0 Deaths - was 0 last week

223 cases - was 83 last week.

0.8% positivity - was 0.9% (this number reflects the truth of their argument)
 
BerkshireBlue said:
Liverpool people have far more people double vaccinated ergo hardly any hospitalisations. It's not rocket science is it. 30% for Manchester 40% for Liverpool.
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Not entirely that simple - though relevant, of course.

As the daily GM numbers for vaccination show - Stockport has the best vaccination data in GM and been over 50% double vaccinated through the whole time its cases have escalated rapidly from very low to very high.

The reason is that those catching this new variant are mostly unvacinated because they are so young. As a result the double vaccinated stats really tell us more about why spiking areas are not going to threaten the NHS too much as they are primarily those who will not got too sick.

This wave is totally different because it involves those under 40 primarily and not those over 60. That is a good thing for healthcare and death but not so much for raw case numbers.

So you are right on the implications but it will have less impact on the increasing case numbers because the ones catching it will largely be not ones within that number - be it 30, 40 or 50 percent. And also by age and behaviour patterns the ones most likely to pass it on to each other.
 
Healdplace said:
Not entirely that simple - though relevant, of course.

As the daily GM numbers for vaccination show - Stockport has the best vaccination data in GM and been over 50% double vaccinated through the whole time its cases have escalated rapidly from very low to very high.

The reason is that those catching this new variant are mostly unvacinated because they are so young. AS a result the double vaccinated stats really tell up more about why spiking areas are not going to threaten the NHS too much as they are primarily those who will not gt too sick.

This wave is totaqlly different because it ivolves those under 40 primarily and not those over 60. That is a good thing for healthcare and death but not so much for raw case numbers.
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What does that mean in reality for the country though? If the people getting it are primarily under 40, do we need to be majorly alarmed at the way the figures are going? Or is it a case of pushing the vaccine out as fast as possible in these hotspots and in general across the country and maybe just slowing the easing of restriction a while whilst we do?
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
First jabs are way down, meaning timescale for first jabs for all adults is going to be longer than first thought. That’s why I posted that graph.

Noone has any idea what the percentage is for those “eligible” for the jab. That’s a pointless statistic.

29m people have had both jabs when I posted that post. c. 40%
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incorrect, the data on 2nd dose numbers and population at LA level is on the ons/nhs website it's where I got the 85% of the over 50's being vaccinated from.
 
At 82.7% with antidodies in Wales v 80.3% in England, 79.9% in N Ireland and 72.6% in Scotland according to todays weekly data (all places up signifcantly wek to week) it explains well why Scotland is struggling and Wales not so much with the new variant.
 
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Healdplace said:
Not entirely that simple - though relevant, of course.

As the daily GM numbers for vaccination show - Stockport has the best vaccination data in GM and been over 50% double vaccinated through the whole time its cases have escalated rapidly from very low to very high.

The reason is that those catching this new variant are mostly unvacinated because they are so young. As a result the double vaccinated stats really tell us more about why spiking areas are not going to threaten the NHS too much as they are primarily those who will not got too sick.

This wave is totally different because it involves those under 40 primarily and not those over 60. That is a good thing for healthcare and death but not so much for raw case numbers.

So you are right on the implications but it will have less impact on the increasing case numbers because the ones catching it will largely be not ones within that number - be it 30, 40 or 50 percent. And also by age and behaviour patterns the ones most likely to pass it on to each other.
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and what's Stockports hospitalisations like as this is what is important. I'm guessing it's sub 10
 
willipp said:
What does that mean in reality for the country though? If the people getting it are primarily under 40, do we need to be majorly alarmed at the way the figures are going? Or is it a case of pushing the vaccine out as fast as possible in these hotspots and in general across the country and maybe just slowing the easing of restriction a while whilst we do?
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Majorly alarmed no. Especially if we complete the vaccination roll out ASAP.

But 10,000 cases sending a smaller percentage into hospital is no big deal. But if it keeps rising and becomes 100,000 because we do not rein it in then TEN times a small number that do becoe sick potentially is enough to put pressure on the NHS at a time when it has a huge backlog of non Covid conditions to treat put on hold for 15 months.

The debate going on in government will be between the let it rip and get this over with fast and the lets stem it by holding back a few week to ramp up vaccination to those who are most at risk of now catching it. The younger age groups.

Had this new variant come a month or so later we might well have been OK. Wales being just a step ahead on that shows the difference.

And there are hints of more people now dying under 60 than over 60. As the numbers in age ranges have started to even out. Half were under 60 yesterday in England.
 
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BerkshireBlue said:
tell me about it. They're literally mental, they'd have the country lockeddown as there's one hospitalised case in Anglesey.
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thats what they pretty much do in Australia and New Zealand - we instead have open borders and 5000+ rising cases and have people pretend it’s nothing to worry about.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
only 40 case over 30 odd days in an almost linear fashion. The vast majority unvaccinated idiots who have been offered a vaccine but haven't taken it up. What's your point?
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The vast majority unvaccinated idiots who have been offered a vaccine but haven't taken it up -where's the evidence for that or are you supposing that is the case?
 
grunge said:
Got some links? I can only see the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ dashboard that doesn't mention age for vaccinations.
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this is the population at LA level

Estimates of the population for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex (including components of population change, median age and population density).
www.ons.gov.uk
 
grunge said:
Got some links? I can only see the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ dashboard that doesn't mention age for vaccinations.
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and if the midyear pop file doesn't give you age breakdowns by LA there's a downloadable file here

Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex.
www.ons.gov.uk
 
Stockport

Patients per day admitted 24 - 30 May (latest data Gov UK posts - 0 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 0

Patients in hospital per day 26 May - 1 Jun (this data is always more ahead) 2 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 3 / 2

Ventilated in hospital per day 26 May - 1 Jun 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 /0 / 1 / 1

Deaths up to 7 Jun the last death in Stockport was on 22 May. Zero now for 16 days.


Bear in mind hospitalisations/ventilators/deaths WILL lag rising cases by a week or two so these are not as probative as they look.

But they are certainly not yet remotely an issue.
 
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