Coronavirus (2021) thread

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What happens in the NW is crucial because it was the first region to be dominated by this variant and will be the template for what will still happen elsewhere in coming weeks even if we do not open up any more at all. People are still travelling and will do so regardless.

So if it can be brought down here without rising much from where we are now then that will be a good sign we can manage this elsewhere by rapid intervention locally. Which seems the strategy.

This variant is now unstoppable. It is really just a balance point between it taking over and our immunity levels rising via catching it and vaccination completion that matters. If we get through these coming weeks and are heading out of it with miminal impact on the NHS we will be OK.

And next time a variant turns up in the world we HAVE to learn to stop travel proactively not retrospecively.

Because more variants will arrive until we vaccinate the entire world which this weekend's summit surely has to get moving immediately.

They should tell the delegates to agree something or they will all be flown to Greater Manchester and keep meeting here in the thick of it until they see why vaccinating the world is urgent and essential and in their hands to put into full scale operation now.
 
Manchester33 said:
There are still fewer people in hospital with COVID today than there are hospitals in the UK.

Even if the number of patients increases tenfold we should be able to easily cope with it. If we can't cope at 10k patients (who are mostly younger and healthier than those patients earlier on in the pandemic) then that really is a very sad reflection of where decades of austerity has left our NHS.
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While I appreciate the optimism. Not if they are all in one region. Even in the last full wave there were plenty of hospitals with capacity while others were totally overrun. if someone is sick enough to need ICU they are not gonna get shipped half way across the country to somewhere that has capacity.

It certainly not looking that bad right now mind you, Bolton were on the rise a lot to start with but the surge test and vaccinations has helped there.

Hospitalisation wise though the North west as a whole is back up to March levels. This will be the figure being watched by the Gov with regards to extending the 21st date I would guess.
 
Manchester33 said:
I don't care at all about the notion of 'freedom day', but not everyone hoping for that date to come to fruition are 'snowflakes who can't wear a mask in a supermarket'. I'd gladly continue wearing a mask, I'd gladly adhere to social distancing, I'd gladly give up any hopes of foreign travel this year.

But what I'm not happy to go along with is my wedding being delayed for a 3rd time, at less than a months notice and at a large cost to me and my fiance, when the virus isn't anywhere near to overwhelming the NHS. They've done pilots and proved that they can host such events safely.
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I really feel for you. Situations like yours get forgotten when people say they’re happy to wait another 2 weeks/2 months.
 
Manchester33 said:
I don't care at all about the notion of 'freedom day', but not everyone hoping for that date to come to fruition are 'snowflakes who can't wear a mask in a supermarket'. I'd gladly continue wearing a mask, I'd gladly adhere to social distancing, I'd gladly give up any hopes of foreign travel this year.

But what I'm not happy to go along with is my wedding being delayed for a 3rd time, at less than a months notice and at a large cost to me and my fiance, when the virus isn't anywhere near to overwhelming the NHS. They've done pilots and proved that they can host such events safely.
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Totally agree, I hope it doesn't get delayed again for you.
Beyond farcical now this situation, they are drunk with power.
 
grunge said:
While I appreciate the optimism. Not if they are all in one region. Even in the last full wave there were plenty of hospitals with capacity while others were totally overrun. if someone is sick enough to need ICU they are not gonna get shipped half way across the country to somewhere that has capacity.

It certainly not looking that bad right now mind you, Bolton were on the rise a lot to start with but the surge test and vaccinations has helped there.

Hospitalisation wise though the North west as a whole is back up to March levels. This will be the figure being watched by the Gov with regards to extending the 21st date I would guess.
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That part in bolded italics above is not actually true.

If you look at my nightly reports on the up to date hospItal data there were last night 256 in hospital in the whole NW.

The last time we were at that number was 264 on the 20th April. Coming down then, of course, not edging up.

On 15 Mar the number was 992 - nearly 4 times as many as now.

There are 45 on ventilators in the NW - the last time there were more was 46 on 14 April. On 15 Mar it was 115. More than double now.

And last night there were MORE patients in hospital (270) and on ventilators (47) in London than in the NW - a situation that has changed in the past few days because London is now rising faster than the NW which has slowed its increase if not yet falling, I presume.
 
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Healdplace said:
That part in bolded italics above is not actually true.

If you look at my nightly reports on the up to date data there were last night 256 in hospital in the whole NW.

The last time we were at that number was 264 on the 20th April.

On 15 Mar the number was 992 - nearly 4 times as many.
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I think the difference is whether quoting inpatient numbers or daily hospitalisations.

On a falling trend (March/April) you'd expect more in hospital relatively, if hospital stays were of the same length. Of course, there is evidence that those are falling.
 
grunge said:
While I appreciate the optimism. Not if they are all in one region. Even in the last full wave there were plenty of hospitals with capacity while others were totally overrun. if someone is sick enough to need ICU they are not gonna get shipped half way across the country to somewhere that has capacity.

It certainly not looking that bad right now mind you, Bolton were on the rise a lot to start with but the surge test and vaccinations has helped there.

Hospitalisation wise though the North west as a whole is back up to March levels. This will be the figure being watched by the Gov with regards to extending the 21st date I would guess.
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I think hospitalisations may get a fair bit worse before they get better but to counter that they're now rolling out the vaccine to younger age groups and as it seems that it's now mainly young people being hospitalised that can only be a good thing. No doubt that the Indian variant has taken hold at the wrong time in terms of the proposed June 21st lifting of restrictions which means that date is up in the air, but hopefully with a few million jabs in younger arms over the next couple of weeks - and by all accounts the signs are that the vaccine take up amongst the younger population is excellent - I would expect any peak to 1) not be too much higher than where we are now and 2) not to last very long. This is basically a race against time to get as many jabbed as possible over the next few weeks in order to send this current "wave" to the margins. We'll get there but we may just have to wait it out a bit longer than we hoped.
 
Healdplace said:
That part in bolded italics above is not actually true.

If you look at my nightly reports on the up to date hospItal data there were last night 256 in hospital in the whole NW.

The last time we were at that number was 264 on the 20th April. Coming down then, of course, not edging up.

On 15 Mar the number was 992 - nearly 4 times as many as now.

There are 45 on ventilators in the NW - the last time there were more was 46 on 14 April. On 15 Mar it was 115. More than double now.

And last night there were MORE patients in hospital (270) and on ventilators (47) in London than in the NW - a situation that has changed in the past few days because London is now rising faster than the NW which has slowed its increase if not yet falling, I presume.
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Sorry, I was talking admissions per day rather than current levels.


5th + 6th of June ( last days available on the data ) were over 40 per day. last time there was over 40 was march 25th
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think the difference is whether quoting inpatient numbers or daily hospitalisations.

On a falling trend (March/April) you'd expect more in hospital relatively, if hospital stays were of the same length. Of course, there is evidence that those are falling.
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I do post both and admissions are rising but the number that matters - imo - is not that but how many are in day to day - the balance of those going in and going out - and the ones long term sick enough to be in ventilators.

The admissions are really a factor of high case numbers. The other data is what matters as to whether the NHS is overwhelmed. And it will be that which will determine choices on NHS need I would suggest.

And, yes, this is promising evidence that hospital stays are less frequntly now long term or as serious as they were.

Numbers in those factors will rise if patients rise inevitably but so far it looks as if the younger age profile is the crucial difference and every day we move toward them being vaccinated is a step in bringing even them down.
 
grunge said:
Sorry, I was talking admissions per day rather than current levels.


5th + 6th of June ( last days available on the data ) were over 40 per day. last time there was over 40 was march 25th
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OK sorry. But I was not criticisng what you were saying. I think too much emphasis is put on that number as it is not as relevant as it used to be if - as seems to be true - most of those admissions will be short term to check progress. The ins and outs = how many are in per day with Covid and that is what will determine the NHS ability to cope or not. And so drive decisions based on that.

Admissions mattered when they were a very different age and prognosis profile to now. This is a huge change between this wave and all previous ones. As it factors into both the stress put on the NHS and the likely morbidity outcome. Which are the factors which determine what stage of societal response is needed.

That could change if we let this spread too far but right now the change in profile is the key to why we may get through this better than India has.
 
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Healdplace said:
OK sorry. But I was not criticisng what you were saying. I just think too much emphasis is put on that number as it is not as relevant as it used to be if - as seems to be true - most of those admissions wilol be short term to chek progress. The ins and outs = how many are in per day with Covid is what will determine the NHS ability to cope.
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Yeah fingers crossed it stays that way too!. ICU is the critical figure for any hospital overrun I would guess.
 
grunge said:
Yeah fingers crossed it stays that way too!. ICU is the critical figure for any hospital overrun I would guess.
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Agreed. And it is up in the NW but given the case numbers we have had so far in modest numbers From around 20 to 45 in past 2 or 3 weeks.

In the January wave NW ventilated patients started at 195 and peaked 21 days later at 417.

We are happily nowhere near seeing that kind of number even though it will be a week or two before we see the full impact of the last week's escalating case numbers.

But I think it is looking probable we will not come close to that kind of scenario in this wave. Unless something drastically changes before we vaccinate everyone.

As, of course. it still might. But hopefully not.
 
Wales data:


1 death - was 0 last week

113 cases - was 49 last week

1.0% positivity - was 0.6% last week


Though this looks a big rise bear in mind the data flow testing issue that led to 223 cases yesterday.

Today has had some data added for the same reason.

Still looks like cases are edging up in Wales as the variant has started to get through there cross the border from the NW presumably as it is in North Wales in Wrexham and Denbighshire it seems.
 
ZOE UPDATE


Predicted daily cases 11,906 - up from 10, 615

Symptomatic Case numbers 117, 702 - up 17, 692.

Still climbing steeply


North West bw in the highest watch zone along with Scotland.

North West has overtaken Scotand.
 
ZOE DATA NORTH WEST

Manchester has jumped up over 10,000 into the highest watch zone on 10, 974

Manchester is now the highest number in the whole UK.

Tameside 6400, Trafford 5216, Bury 5094, Stockport 4802 are next - Stockport rising fast. Doubled in 24 hours. Wigan 3605.

They have taken Salford down as its numbers have obviously been miles out and absurdly low given its escakating cases and Pop Score. Now rated as too few contributers to make a meaningful number. As Tameside was for weeks.

St Helens has become a big hot spot on 8073

Liverpool enters the watch zone at lowest level 1752.


Lancaster 4447 Wyre 3645.

KIrklees is up to 9018 - highest in Yorkshire.

Sunderland in NE on 6267

Perth & Kinross on 8901 highest in Scotland.

London and surrounds was almost empty a week ago and is now like GM was a week ago - a sea of linked boroughs in the lower watch zones. It has spread very fast there.

Unfortuntely, it looks like London will become the new North West in coming days.
 
Healdplace said:
I do post both and admissions are rising but the number that matters - imo - is not that but how many are in day to day - the balance of those going in and going out - and the ones long term sick enough to be in ventilators.

The admissions are really a factor of high case numbers. The other data is what matters as to whether the NHS is overwhelmed. And it will be that which will determine choices on NHS need I would suggest.

And, yes, this is promising evidence that hospital stays are less frequntly now long term or as serious as they were.

Numbers in those factors will rise if patients rise inevitably but so far it looks as if the younger age profile is the crucial difference and every day we move toward them being vaccinated is a step in bringing even them down.
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I agree, it's the number in hospital that counts, particularly as hospitalisations become less "severe" and for shorter periods.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Why do the media keep asking Professor Lockdown on what's going on?
The guy's a fucking tool who is consistently wrong
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Neil Ferguson is one of the few people who have been more right than wrong throughout.

And like I said, for your own mental health, get the fuck off the internet mate.
 
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