Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Nightmare Walking]

Outbreak in work, had a track n trace alert to self isolate but only for 5 days ??
Feel like shit today but how can i go for a test if i have to self isolate ?

You can go for a test as you have symptoms.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland update:

0 deaths - was 5 last week (Sunday data is always low recall)

569 cases - was 928 last week

Positivity 7.0% - crept up a bit lately

123 Greater Glasgow, 112 Lothian and 97 Lanarkshire

1428 patients - down 15 - was 1650 last week (approx)

102 ventilated - down 2 - was 114 last week

 

[cleavers]

Do they employ clowns at the BBC News these days or do they just twist what was said deliberately?

Yes to both.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination update:

1, 255, 190 first doses given - 31, 416 yesterday.

Nicola Sturgeon points out that having reached 99% + of the upper age group (80 plus) they are also now at:

99% in the 75- 79, 85% in the 70 - 74 and ahead of things so much that 53% in the 65 - 69 group have been vaccinated too.


But she also reminds as reported last week vaccine supply issues (Pfizer related as they are upgrading the plant in Belgium for next fortnight to increase deliveries subsequently) mean there will be fewer numbers over rest of February.

So quite likely you will be having the AZ jab if called in the coming weeks I would assume from this.

 

[Marvin]

It's looking increasingly unlikely that herd immunity is a realistic aim.

Ro is the R number with normal behaviour and no immunity. The formula for the fraction needed to be immune to reach herd immunity is (Ro-1)/Ro

The original variant had an Ro of ~3 but the new variants are said to be ~50% more transmissible.

If R ~5 then the fraction needed to be immune is ~80%

The vaccine is unlikely to give "sterilising immunity" ie complete protection against transmission, is not 100% effective against disease either, and reduced effectiveness against variants has been reported for some variants. Given that we're also not going to be immunising children, then reaching a complete suppression of the virus through herd immunity doesn't seem likely.

However, it's still vital as many people as possible are vaccinated, not just to protect themselves, but also because even if we haven't reached formal herd immunity, outbreaks will be much easier to contain the closer we are to that limit. There seems to be a body of opinion that current immunity levels reached through prior infection and vaccinating have helped speed the reduction in cases in the current lockdown, and that level was probably something like 20% at the start rising to maybe 30% now and over 50% in the next couple of months.

It may be that we end up similar to the flu; there's an annual booster jab but still outbreaks through the winter, dying down in the summer but never completely going away.

It's difficult to know just how transmissible the SA like variants will be in the vaccinated populations both now and in the future.

Could the growth rate of the variants in a population with a very high vaccine uptake rate be <1? If so, we don't need to worry.

I think it's important that we drive down the infection rate as low as possible and then release restrictions slowly and then monitor for growth of the variants. If the infection rate is low then we can reduce the risk of future mutations.

I the Autumn we should be able to go for herd immunity and end this once and for all assuming that infection rates are much lower by then. I think that is what is intended. It's not really clear to me how much we have to fear from the variants. I expect there's lots of papers out there which document how the variants react to vaccines but I have lost the interest in reading them.

 

[blueparrot]

Scotland vaccination update:

1, 255, 190 first doses given - 31, 416 yesterday.

Nicola Sturgeon points out that having reached 99% + of the upper age group (80 plus) they are also now at:

99% in the 75- 79, 85% in the 70 - 74 and ahead of things so much that 53% in the 65 - 70 group have been vaccinated too.


But she also reminds as reported last week vaccine supply issues (Pfizzer related as they are upgrading the plant in Belgium for next fortnight to increase deliveries subsequently) mean there will be fewer numbers over rest of February.

So quite likely you will be having the AZ jab if called in the coming weeks I would assume from this.

Yes, would assume any pfizer would be used now on those that had a pfizer 1st dose at the end of December beginning of January until it comes back on line in March.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon under fire for saying she is STILL trying to persuade the UK government to have the tighter border rules that Scotland wants but England does not.

She says she is trying as long as she can but will consider seriously border restrictions on England if the four nation approach cannot be agreed.

But would rather not go that route and in essence hopes common sense will prevail.

I will not be counting to ten waiting for that and it is a tough call really locking down the UK borders.

 

[bluemoon32]

You can go for a test as you have symptoms.

Thank you, i haven't got a clue with all this

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon just asked - will not people instead of paying to quarantine just fly internally on from Manchester to Scotland for instance at far less cost? Citing a flight from Turkey today where of the 60 passengers nearly all did something like that and only single figures stayed in their original destination and self isolated in the hotel.

If I followed the reporter who had been at the airport to watch them fly in today correctly. As that makes no sense - surely there is a rule stopping just that in place already as its a very obvious get around we must have anticipated?

Nicola Sturgeon said she understood this and her ultimate obligation is to the people of Scotland not the UK and will take that decision if the UK cannot be persuaded of these problems.

She added the UK government are still talking to her about her concerns.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Had my first shot of AZ at Clarendon Leisure Centre, Salford, a couple of hours ago. It was extremely efficient & I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Didn’t feel a thing, no reaction so far and I now have 5G on my phone so all good.