Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

Reminder that Scotland prioritised care homes in terms of vaccination programme, so this is a positive sign for everyone on the vaccine front.

 

[Healdplace]

Interesting. ZOE app has been very, very accurate previously. Slight warning signs here. No panic yet but sumat to keep an eye on.

Nice to see Zoe Ap supporting what the data is showing and I have been saying in here for days.

Though worrying because I was hoping I was reading it wrong.

But it was VERY clear the southern regions have -plummeted and the North West is struggling to go lower and that at best GM has flatlined in the past week at still too high a level as my GM updates each evening have been warning.

Of course, they took vaccine away from here to hand over to the south exactly when this happened. Something that was most unfortunate and regional leaders really ought to be screaming about even if it had no actual direct connection. As it probably didn't. It was not a great PR move as this trend was already appearing when they did it.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

30 deaths - was 21 last week

374 cases - was 323 last week

5.7% positive - was 5.6% last week

Slight worrying signs but the weekly Pop has fallen

Weekly Pop 86 - was 88 yesterday - and 111 last week.

This is below EVERY region in England in the table I posted above so Wales is doing pretty well right now.

Unless the slight week to week rise today is the sign Zoe Ap is right.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination update:

807, 351 first doses - 11. 424 yesterday - up from 11, 118 day before

12, 988 second doses - 5737 yesterday - up from 1849 day before

 

[paulchapo]

Latest Weekly Pop Score table for the regions

Pop Score v Score 7 days ago v % change up and down - same basis as in the table I post daily for GM boroughs

lower the number the better - rising bad, falling good



West Midlands 196 v 272 = 28% fall

East Midlands 193 v 250 = 23% fall

North West 189 v 250 = 25% fall

North East 173 v 220 = 21% fall

Yorkshire 159 v 182 = 13% fall

East 131 v 206 = 37% fall

London 127 v 219 = 42% fall

South East 108 v 177 = 39% fall

South West 100 v 140 = 29% fall



This shows what the nightly updates on the regional cases show.

Everywhere is falling - the good news.

Midlands and North West are the drivers of most of the cases right now and - whilst they they are falling too - the southern regions have dropped like a stone in past couple of weeks creating most of the big reduction in cases.

This is based on 5 day old data not the actual daily data I post for GM but the principle is the same and the trend the same.

To compare the weekly pop scores above for the regions with GM numbers as of last night.

The LOWEST in GM is Trafford - but at 138 that is higher than all four of the southern regions.

Five of the GM boroughs - Rochdale (182), Oldham (185), Manchester (186) and Stockport and Wigan (188) are bunched together - just below the NW regional number of 189. Though it has likely fallen to below those GM boroughs in the five days since.

Tameside (200), Bury (202) and Bolton (219) are above the numbers even 5 days ago for every single region.

So, as you can see Greater Manchester is not doing as well as it might and is finding it hard to drop below what has become a plateau of case numbers over past week or so.

The problem with the North West may be down to the supposed discovery of new variants here perhaps?

I'm in Trafford and did my weekly shop yesterday. Everywhere was busy, mainly with families out and about as the kids who are actually at school are off this week. Still couples shopping together in spite of signs saying try and restrict it to one person and loads of gangs of teenagers milling about, so I wouldn't be surprised if cases rise after this week.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

64 deaths - was 50 last week

1121 cases - was 803 last week

5.2% positive - was 4.8% last week

1317 patients - down 56 in day - was 1542 last wk

99 ventilator icu - down 1 in day - was 113 last week


Like Wales a rise in cases, positivity and deaths week to week is a little concerning

But hospital numbers till going the right way.

Though they woud follow any case increases by a day or two.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination update

1, 320, 074 first doses given - 32, 070 yesterday - down from 32, 814 day before

64% of those aged 65 -70 now vaccinated

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon gave some telling data on the past 3 weeks death statistics and says they are good evidence the vaccine is working.

There has been an 11% drop in Covid deaths in hospitals. A 29% drop at home. And a 62% fall in care homes - she says justifying their decision to focus on these first with the vaccinations even though it slowed them down at first as it was harder to do with the Pfizer vaccine.

The number of Covid deaths all told have fallen 43% in the over 80s - the first group to be mass vaccinated and fully vaccinated so the first they expect to see evidence in the data.

 

[blueparrot]

The big one here is care home residents that were the first people vaccinated


The first minister says there are some positives from the weekly NRS statistics.
Ms Sturgeon says they show the first hard evidence of the positive impact of the vaccination:

• Deaths overall have fallen now for three consecutive weeks.
• Deaths in hospital have fallen by 11% over the three weeks
• Deaths in people's homes or other non-institutional settings have fallen by 29%
• Deaths in care homes have fallen by 62%

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[Healdplace]

According to the Telegraph today btw they claim Boris has decided not to reduce restrictions significantly in early March. And that we need to be sub 1000 cases a day sustainably before we do so.

If true the current plateau outside the south needs to either self resolve or be addressed

We might just be lagging behind areas that had further to fall and are back to normal levels. The NW (Merseyside especially) was a week or two behind the new variant uptick that happened down south and the idiotic decision to keep Merseyside out of top tier was a massive error that has not helped and many of the big numbers of deaths daily in the NW (112 yesterday - over half of them then being an example) are from there.

I am hoping we are just running that bit behind as hospital numbers showed that. Up until last week the NW was flatlining there or going down very slowly but in the past four or five days that fall seems to have accelerated.

So the same thing might happen with cases in coming days.

GM has no major issue right now. It is about twice as high as its norm from the autumn as opposed to about 5 times as high as it was a few weeks ago.

So it has plateaued a little but at modest numbers.

Where it goes from here though is critical. If it starts noticeably rising that will be a concern.