Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

761 infections in Scotland (5.2% of all tests, for the first time in months Scotland are over the 5% threshold)

26 in people aged over 65
122 in people aged 45-64

258 in people aged 25-44
349 in people aged 0-24 (including 148 in those aged 0-14)

******************

0 deaths announced (weekend reporting)

******************


20k first doses
21k second doses

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Nowhere near doubling every week like some were predicting. Considering it’s meant to be a lot more contagious it’s not really doing it’s job. My money is on them coming out and saying ‘actually we have found it’s not actually any more contagious’ within a few weeks.

Alpha being on rapid decline whilst Delta takes over creates that effect, it's akin to having two pandemics at the one time with one on the decline and the other growing. It creates an illusion that all things are equal and even when they're not.

 

[True_Blue69]

Alpha being on rapid decline whilst Delta takes over creates that effect, it's akin to having two pandemics at the one time with one on the decline and the other growing. It creates an illusion that all things are equal and even when they're not.

Either way, the total number of infections is not doubling every week which is good news right?

 

[Manc in London]

Wait, you're saying you'd fuck off family members because they are vaccinated?
Sounds like you're a fucking nutter.

I am of that view but it was based on the 'identifying stars' thing. Imagine making some kind of parallel with the treatment of Jewish people in Nazi Germany.

 

[Manc in London]

A crackpot anti vaxxer theory that the Vaccinated shed "something" that is dangerous. to the extent that Antivaxxers in the states are starting to wear masks to protect themselves from the vaccinated......

That is hilarious. I do hope there are some articles or YouTube videos about this.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data over past 3 day weekend:

Admissions 162 - 144 - 137 V (7 days before) 93 - 96 - 96

NW drove these admissions 61 - 53 - 57 - three highest in many weeks V (7 days before) 31 - 30 - 41

Unfortunately this HAS trnslated into a rather larger increase in hospital numbers - patients/ventilators in England - than in past week or two.

UP 109 over the weekend rising 884 - 915 - 947 - 993 today.

Last week the same numbers were 805 - 782 - 807 - 860

Ventilators are also going up unhappily.

Up 146 - 152 - 171 - 170 over the weekend.

Last week the same numbers were 119 - 124 - 131 - 133


As will be no surprise the NW is driving the numbers:-

Patients up over the days 272 - 300 - 323 - 328 V last week 202 - 210 - 223 - 245

Ventilators 49 - 52 - 61 - 63 V last week 30 - 39 - 41 - 45.

The good news - not a huge week to week escalation.

The bad news - NW the only area really showing this rise - unsurprisingly - given its new variant case numbers.

London is the only other area with much of an uptick over the weekend but that is just by 23 patients to 285 and ventilators stay at 51.

 

[Healdplace]

So as you see the North West IS the epicentre of the hospital problems right now in England. And numbers are rising.

But as yet I would not call it a crisis. It is simply concerning and these numbers would always follow the cases by a short period and longer with ventilators and then deaths.

The real worry is that unless the NW gets these under cotrol quickly and filters through to them slowing, stopping or reducing then we have every other big region waiting in the wings to follow suit over the next few weeks as Delta colonises there as it is doing right now.

This would result in a much bigger escalation if these other regions all add onto the problems the NW is already building up before it gets them under control.

So this data really left no option but to do what is being done today imo.

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

I wonder if even a tiny bit of Boris brain is regretting putting his trade deals before the health of the people who elected him. Once is expected, twice is naive, 3 times its negligent, 4 its criminal.

 

[Healdplace]

Don’t want to make light of your post, because I read yours and Healdplace’s posts with interest and thank you for them… but that graph does look a lot like a warthog to me!

I saw exactly the same thing. It does! My fault though as I called Covid a PIG of a virus in a post here yesterday.

So - maybe if I say now it is like Tinkerbell we will all be able to wish it away tomorrow by not believing in it. We have a head start with those already not doing so.

 

[Elbow beards]

It's certainly possible, but I think unlikely.

Here's the Covid Tapir: French and UK cases on log scale

View attachment 19100

In order for this to become as big a problem for France as it is here, that very rapidly declining case rate in France has to turn around, then start doubling at UK rate, and do that faster than their vaccinations catch up with us (and they're currently vaccinating faster than we are).

What's the maximum case rate of delta that could be hiding beneath that steep overall French decline?

It seems likely that either the delta variant isn't rising as fast in French conditions, or the numbers there are currently still very low.

Are there any areas within France that like Bolton here was, are showing sudden unexpected rises? That would be what you'd expect if there was a hidden issue. I've no idea.

That just looks like he's drawn a wild boar.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Either way, the total number of infections is not doubling every week which is good news right?

Doubling every two weeks is bad news! That's about as fast as it's been at any point in the pandemic save for the start of wave one before any restrictions were in place.

The current UK week on week rise is 45%, which equates to 13 day doubling, R of ~1.35



The reason for not relaxing restrictions is precisely to avoid a further acceleration to an even smaller doubling rate.

Some back of the envelope good news:

Current vaccination rate is 500,000ish, ~0.7% of the whole population dosed daily - but need to halve that as we need two doses. So 0.35% vaxxed per day. Doesn't sound much but it's 10% in a month.
Currently (incl children) we have 61% of the population at least single dose vaccinated, leaving 39% unvaccinated.

In a month, if we keep up that rate, the 39% will become 29%
The R rate should drop by the same fraction (29/39, about three quarters).

That's enough to completely stop the rise.

All very rough, but hopefully illustrates how much difference a month should make.

(additionally, something like 20,000 people daily are gaining immunity through infection, if we guess that we only find one in three cases. That makes a difference too, but it's far less than vaccination)

 

[Healdplace]

I wonder if even a tiny bit of Boris brain is regretting putting his trade deals before the health of the people who elected him. Once is expected, twice is naive, 3 times its negligent, 4 its criminal.

We could always name the virus after him and call it the Boris variant. That might cheer him up.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

England hospital data over past 3 day weekend:

Admissions 162 - 144 - 137 V (7 days before) 93 - 96 - 96

NW drove these admissions 61 - 53 - 57 - three highest in many weeks V (7 days before) 31 - 30 - 41

Unfortunately this HAS trnslated into a rather larger increase in hospital numbers - patients/ventilators in England - than in past week or two.

UP 109 over the weekend rising 884 - 915 - 947 - 993 today.

Last week the same numbers were 805 - 782 - 807 - 860

Ventilators are also going up unhappily.

Up 146 - 152 - 171 - 170 over the weekend.

Last week the same numbers were 119 - 124 - 131 - 133

That's a huge rise in admissions. Not good news.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Doubling every two weeks is bad news! That's about as fast as it's been at any point in the pandemic save for the start of wave one before any restrictions were in place.

The current UK week on week rise is 45%, which equates to 13 day doubling, R of ~1.35

View attachment 19109

The reason for not relaxing restrictions is precisely to avoid a further acceleration to an even smaller doubling rate.

Some back of the envelope good news:

Current vaccination rate is 500,000ish, ~0.7% of the whole population dosed daily - but need to halve that as we need two doses. So 0.35% vaxxed per day. Doesn't sound much but it's 10% in a month.
Currently (incl children) we have 61% of the population at least single dose vaccinated, leaving 39% unvaccinated.

In a month, if we keep up that rate, the 39% will become 29%
The R rate should drop by the same fraction (29/39, about three quarters).

That's enough to completely stop the rise.

All very rough, but hopefully illustrates how much difference a month should make.

(additionally, something like 20,000 people daily are gaining immunity through infection, if we guess that we only find one in three cases. That makes a difference too, but it's far less than vaccination)

It’s not really moved for the last 5 days though.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That's a huge rise in admissions. Not good news.

Exactly what we should anticipate, I think. The vaccination programme isn't proceeding fast enough on a weekly basis to make a material difference. So you'd expect hospitalisations to be directly proportional to cases, and so to double at the same rate.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It’s not really moved for the last 5 days though.

I don't think we'd expect it to? Once the delta variant has taken over you'd expect it to be constant doubling, all other things being equal (which they rarely are in the real world).

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Exactly what we should anticipate, I think. The vaccination programme isn't proceeding fast enough on a weekly basis to make a material difference. So you'd expect hospitalisations to be directly proportional to cases, and so to double at the same rate.

Yeah it's what we've been told would happen, still puts you on a bit of a downer when you see it coming to roost though.

 

[Healdplace]

After some sums I found that in the past month - whilst Delta has arrived, increased then fell in Bolton but colonised the rest of the NW the number of patients as a perentage of those in hospital in England has risen from 18% to 33%. (up from 152 out of 810 to 328 out of 993.

Ventilators have gone from 15 out of 115 (13%) to 63 out of 170 (37%)

That ventilator number is a particular worry as it took NW from one of the best to the worst in a flash.

If every other England region follows a similar path as Delta spreads there over the next month you see why it matters far more than it might appear right now to act to try to mitigate the problem.

 

[ctwrd]

Those who say it doesn’t stop you spreading it, why do we need to wait to vaccinate more (non vulnerable) people then?

 

[splinter]

After some sums I found that in the past month - whilst Delta has arrived, increased then fell in Bolton but colonised the rest of the NW the number of patients as a perentage of those in hospital in England has risen from 18% to 33%. (up from 152 out of 810 to 328 out of 993.

Ventilators have gone from 15 out of 115 (13%) to 63 out of 170 (37%)

That ventilator number is a particular worry as it took NW from one of the best to the worst in a flash.

If every other England region follows a similar path as Delta spreads there over the next month you see why it matters far more than it might appear right now to act to try to mitigate the problem.

Slightly worried we will need more than 5 weeks to get on top of the delta V ?