Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tonster]

This will just rumble on and on. Don’t plan anything for this year. This inept government will open all schools and carnage awaits.

If only we had some vaccines to sort this out ffs

 

[shemnel]

Graph of hospital admissions in England only per day up to Feb 16th, per age bracket (the only ones that are available)

I am surprised that the over 85's are dropping at a slower rate, or at least extremely similar rate, than the other brackets. I thought the vaccine would be suppressing this more.

- The case numbers are still hugely dominated by the 18-59 categories (predominantly 30s and 40s now).
- Do 85+ end up in hospital more readily as they are frailer?
- Do more 85+ go to hospital as a precaution but far more are surviving the condition?
- Is it, in fact, not covid that is hospitalising them, but some other condition and they test positive as well?

I would tend to think that as the data are showing in-hospital deaths of over 80s are falling as a %, that the vaccine is not yet keeping them out of hospital, but perhaps reducing the severity as to end in death, but still not dramatically.

Cases, hospital admissions, death, is still is a very confusing picture.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Graph of hospital admissions in England only per day up to Feb 16th, per age bracket (the only ones that are available)

I am surprised that the over 85's are dropping at a slower rate, or at least extremely similar rate, than the other brackets. I thought the vaccine would be suppressing this more.

- The case numbers are still hugely dominated by the 18-59 categories (predominantly 30s and 40s now).
- Do 85+ end up in hospital more readily as they are frailer?
- Do more 85+ go to hospital as a precaution but far more are surviving the condition?
- Is it, in fact, not covid that is hospitalising them, but some other condition and they test positive as well?

I would tend to think that as the data are showing in-hospital deaths of over 80s are falling as a %, that the vaccine is not yet keeping them out of hospital, but perhaps reducing the severity as to end in death, but still not dramatically.

Cases, hospital admissions, death, is still is a very confusing picture.



View attachment 10869

Have a look on a log plot

 

[chesterbells]

what should they do then kenny G.

@KennyG can answer for himself, but my view would be that they shouldn’t be rushing all the schools back straight away. My kids are secondary age and are getting 5 hours a day of online lessons which they say are pretty good, and they are certainly making progress with their learning. The idea that they have stopped learning just isn’t true.
My view on primary aged kids would be different, as I don’t think at that age, esp infants, online learning works. For this reason, and cos at that age they aren’t as likely to affect the R rates as children who have reached puberty, then I would have them return on the 8th.

 

[shemnel]

Have a look on a log plot

feck i switched my laptop off

edit: checked, makes no real difference

 

[unicorn]

It seems as though anyone who works in a Manchester school can get the vaccinated at the Etihad. This is to fill the slots left open by 60 plus year olds who are waiting to be jabbed near their homes. That’s according to Blues on Twitter so I can’t vouch for the accuracy of this info.

That's great news if true; get the teachers vaccinated.

 

[artfuldodger]

It seems as though anyone who works in a Manchester school can get the vaccinated at the Etihad. This is to fill the slots left open by 60 plus year olds who are waiting to be jabbed near their homes. That’s according to Blues on Twitter so I can’t vouch for the accuracy of this info.

My friend is a teaching assistant in Stockport and she is getting hers tomorrow. She was forwarded a link that has been shared around Stockport and Manchester schools, for teachers and TAs to take the empty slots at the Etihad. How legit this shared link is, I don’t know, but she’s got her slot.

 

[Marvin]

Well if you look at this weeks data it has stopped. Its only when you compare with last weeks data when cases were higher it has fallen. If you did a 3 or 4 day average you would see that cases have plateaued as heald place observed. Which is the point at which I just questioned whether it was worth carrying on with the current loose lockdown. Or tightening to make cases fall.

Use the 7 day moving average to remove 'artefacts' of our working week. You are right though. Anyone can see the rate of decline is slowing. It's falling, but at a lower rate than before. Theories? I think the spread of the more contagious UK variant is still being felt. We should see increasing effects from vaccination given we're told it reduces transmission.

Like you I am a bit perturbed that the rate of decline is slowing. We need to make sure it never grows again. We can't affford that with semi-resistant strains around.

 

[KennyG]

Too many non-essential shops have been open, during this ‘lockdown’. People going to work unnecessarily. Ridiculously high baseline of cases to even consider opening schools, which was the main reason the November lockdown was a sham. Whoever can’t see this is deluded.

 

[Marvin]

That's great news if true; get the teachers vaccinated.

The vaccination policy is supposed to be risk / age based? I heard that Burnham remarked that age criteria should be widened re vaccination at the Etihad.