Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard:

A good day all round.


East - down 67 to 331

London - down 36 to 400

South East - down 48 to 413

South West - down49 to 227


Small falls to lowest numbers in months in many cases here.


East Midlands - down 147 to 452

West Midlands - down 134 to 424

The biggest falls here in what has been the most infected part of England is great news.



North East - up 89 to 306 - only place that goes up today

Yorkshire - down 39 to 693 - a small drop means Yorkshire has the most cases in England today. As the impact of the variants has waned (which it was less impacted by) it has found its previous much lower numbers stalling and joining the pack.


And North West

Very good day here - down 91 to 689 - four less than Yorkshire.

Lowest total in NW for 178 days - about 6 months.

 

[Marvin]

Whilst the news is very positive, it's not "virtually over", not until the majority of adults are vaccinated twice, and we're still a long way from that point.

And we don't know whether variants will continue to replicate and therefore evolve still further. If there were no variants and it was virus v vaccine with no complications it would be all over but we cannot say this any more.

We are not even trying to get herd immunity any more. This is implicit in this discussion, i.e. we can allow the epidemic to rise as long as serious illness falls.

 

[Manc in London]

Completely agree with you, I have only a small family and so it is easy for me. Larger family groups must be finding this extremely wearing and desperate for things to return to something like normal.

I only have a small immediate family (missus and a little un) but a large family (three parents, fours sisters and three step brothers). I hate being stuck at home and I am unhappy at not being able to see family (three have serious underlying health conditions). All the family are desperate for lockdown to end but we also appreciate that we need to follow the rules.

 

[Len Rum]

We can only do what he is doing which here I think he has got spot on - vaccinate quickly - open up slowly bit by bit and edge towards normality in stages as the best plan to only go forward and not have to step back. Which nobody wants.

It's not the case that we can "only" do what Johnson is doing.
Many members of Independent Sage do not agree with the emphasis in his approach i.e. of priorising reduction in infections over reductions in cases. If you're interested view Christina Pagel's twitter feed in which she outlines the +s and -s of the government plan and concludes she is more pessimistic than optimistic
Their view is basically keep restrictions in place a bit longer, get cases down to rock bottom levels by which time most people would have been vaccinated. Tighten border controls. This would reduce the spread of the virus,reduce chances of variants/long covid etc and with very low case numbers would enable test and trace to operate more effectively.
I realise there are break points in Johnson's roll out but the problem is once you fail a critical break point it's usually too late by then.
The disadvantage of the alternative approach is that we stay in lockdown longer and can't open the economy as quickly with all the problems that entails.
I'm not saying Johnson's plan is wrong - nobody knows. Indeed I genuinely hope it's successful and I think it has a good chance of working, it's just that it's NOT the only way

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester highlights:


Did not quite share the 45% or so fall of the NW total needed to stay level but DID fall to the lowest GM numbers since September.

Down 30 to 335. But up to 48,6 % of NW total. Which is about where it used to be in Summer.

The big news though is a spread of cases that is extraordinarily close.


Every single borough under 50. And a spread of just 28.

From Manchester with its lowest in six months at just 48.

To Bury equalling its winning score yesterday of just 20.

Stockport had its first 'best' in ages by rising by just 9 pop score with a 2021 low of just 27. It actually gained one Pop Score point back off Trafford which rose by 10 with its 24.

Most places down week to week - though Salford - at 42 - closest to Manchester - was up a bit from last Monday.

All in all another good day of falling Pop Scores - though none by much as numbers are at such a low level it is hard to fall much further and even a small change in cases day to day can mean a small uptick in the weekly Pop.

Like all stats you get this low it is less obvious how well you are doing as only small downward moves are possible.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Let’s just sack any kind of social interaction off for the rest of our lives in case a virus appears and causes harm then. Very much doubt this will be the last worrying virus in our lifetimes, do you suggest we live like this forever just in case?

No i don't. I think people should have the hope of normalcy when cases are low and the majority are vaccinated but i hate the flippancy of some who don't give one shit that people like me and over 4 million others will soon have to take the gamble of catching the virus. What what i can gather there will be an over 10% chance we will die. Some will be too scared to leave the house, some like me will take the risk because otherwise whats the point? Some just miss the pub. Some genuinely need to see their family and friends and i 100% know that it has to happen.

How many reading this would go out knowing there is a 10% chance you will die?

 

[cleavers]

It's not the case that we can "only" do what Johnson is doing.
Many members of Independent Sage do not agree with the emphasis in his approach i.e. of priorising reduction in infections over reductions in cases. If you're interested view Christina Pagel's twitter feed in which she outlines the +s and -s of the government plan and concludes she is more pessimistic than optimistic
Their view is basically keep restrictions in place a bit longer, get cases down to rock bottom levels by which time most people would have been vaccinated. Tighten border controls. This would reduce the spread of the virus,reduce chances of variants/long covid etc and with very low case numbers would enable test and trace to operate more effectively.
I realise there are break points in Johnson's roll out but the problem is once you fail a critical break point it's usually too late by then.
The disadvantage of the alternative approach is that we stay in lockdown longer and can't open the economy as quickly with all the problems that entails.
I'm not saying Johnson's plan is wrong - nobody knows. Indeed I genuinely hope it's successful and I think it has a good chance of working, it's just that it's NOT the only way

I think the approach, minor opening (ie schools), then wait to see how it reacts, and 5 weeks is a good time, we'll effectively have another school break added in then as well, with Easter holidays, so by the next opening of things we should know clearly which way we are headed, then wait another 5 to see if it is still under control, at this point the more widespread opening can be delayed if necessary, though we are at the end of spring/start of summer at this point.

The numbers are still going in the right direction, with @ 15% decline in cases week on week, if we can keep that going with schools open it will be very positive, and by then the hospital/death numbers should be small, plus a lot more will be vaccinated.

The issue will always be the impatient, as tonight's journalist cretin questions show again, "shouldn't we open quicker PM ?".

 

[Len Rum]

I think the approach, minor opening (ie schools), then wait to see how it reacts, and 5 weeks is a good time, we'll effectively have another school break added in then as well, with Easter holidays, so by the next opening of things we should know clearly which way we are headed, then wait another 5 to see if it is still under control, at this point the more widespread opening can be delayed if necessary, though we are at the end of spring/start of summer at this point.

The numbers are still going in the right direction, with @ 15% decline in cases week on week, if we can keep that going with schools open it will be very positive, and by then the hospital/death numbers should be small, plus a lot more will be vaccinated.

The issue will always be the impatient, as tonight's journalist cretin questions show again, "shouldn't we open quicker PM ?".

I agree.
The risk is that with schools going back and with loose border controls, cases will rise and a variant may take hold. So you get to a five week break point and you find yourself having to freeze the release program or god forbid introducing lockdown measures again.
With the more cautious approach the chance of failing a critical break point test is reduced.
However it's a decent plan.
Better than most countries have got and I for one am cautiously optimistic.
Rest of the world and the implications thereof is another discussion.

 

[twosips]

No i don't. I think people should have the hope of normalcy when cases are low and the majority are vaccinated but i hate the flippancy of some who don't give one shit that people like me and over 4 million others will soon have to take the gamble of catching the virus. What what i can gather there will be an over 10% chance we will die. Some will be too scared to leave the house, some like me will take the risk because otherwise whats the point? Some just miss the pub. Some genuinely need to see their family and friends and i 100% know that it has to happen.

How many reading this would go out knowing there is a 10% chance you will die?

Not sure you've got over 10% chance from mate. The IFR seems to be about 0.5-1%. Not downplaying your fears, but your perceived risk value is miles off I think.

 

[cleavers]

However it's a decent plan.
Better than most countries have got and I for one am cautiously optimistic.

I agree, on both counts.

I think our border control is about as strong as it can be, and there aren't many coming in or going out right now, and to get out now you have to have something written to prove it's essential, strengthened last week.

I've colleagues working in numerous countries right now, and they have to quarantine before leaving, on arrival in some cases (not all), and obviously on return when they have to take tests as well. Luckily they can work from home doing this, so it has less impact on the jobs they do, but they have to travel with our organisation, and I'm sure mine is far from alone in that.