Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP REGIONS:

Yorkshire still top but falls well today - DOWN ON 742 / 1034 FROM 811 / 1124

London - ALSO DOWN ON 713 / 906 FROM 744 / 947


THESE ARE NOW THE ONLY TWO IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE



North East - DOWN ON 552 / 950 FROM 575 / 993

Northern Ireland - UP TO 346 / 1282 FROM 312 / 1257


NORTH WEST ALSO WELL DOWN TO 545 / 766 FROM 583 / 817 AND 594 / 832 AND THEN 601 / 846 DAYS BEFORE

So down now quite steadily.



AND IN THE LOWEST WATCH ZONES ON THEIR OWN:-


WALES DOWN TO 343 / 617 FROM 360 / 653 AND 380 / 685


SCOTLAND STILL THE LOWEST BUT ALSO NOW GOING UP STEADILY


UP T0 249 / 456 FROM 234 / 442 AND FROM 208 / 415 AND 194 / 398 OVER RECENT DAYS
 
On a positive note my 21yo got his 2nd a week ago and is off to a festival next weekend. Without going into personal details he's had an awful year because of the knock ons of the pandemic and I'm just delighted he can live life more to the full.

My 19yo got his second yesterday, and will be off to a deferred place at uni soon after a very constrained year at home with us caused by the A level fiasco last year.

And I'm waiting for our 16yo to get called for his first jab which apparently is how it works - you don't seem to be able to book in despite eligibility being announced a week or two ago.

So from a personal pov, progress.

Will we be showing off our trophies before or after the match next week - would be nice with a capacity crowd for the first time.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
On a positive note my 21yo got his 2nd a week ago and is off to a festival next weekend. Without going into personal details he's had an awful year because of the knock ons of the pandemic and I'm just delighted he can live life more to the full.

My 19yo got his second yesterday, and will be off to a deferred place at uni soon after a very constrained year at home with us caused by the A level fiasco last year.

And I'm waiting for our 16yo to get called for his first jab which apparently is how it works - you don't seem to be able to book in despite eligibility being announced a week or two ago.

So from a personal pov, progress.

Will we be showing off our trophies before or after the match next week - would be nice with a capacity crowd for the first time.
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Glad your children, same as mine of similar age, are getting their lives back mate.
 
marcus said:
Go on …
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“Of, not with.” The 1st and last bastion of the COVID deniers. Trying to diminish the impact of the virus. Usually posted by those reading stats from Facebook.

All they need to do is take a look at I’m the official stats to see that the “With + 28 days” figure is far lower than the “of, mentioned as a main factor on the death certificate”.

by adding that line the valid point was reduced into nonsense.
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA


GREATER MANCHESTER


BOLTON DOWN TO 10 591 FROM 11 476 - slowly falling as in real case data yesterday

BURY UP TO 12 589 FROM 9076 - biggest rise today

MANCHESTER STILL FALLING TO 7819 FROM 9548 - lowest here in a long time

OLDHAM UP TO 17, 363 FROM 15 544 - still going up and now the highest in GM - which matches its real high case numbers

ROCHDALE DOWN TO 11 365 FROM 14 007 - edges down and in the real data is clearly still high but doing better than neighbour Oldham too.

SALFORD Best fall of day here to 6518 FROM 10 127 - been high for some time now going the right way

STOCKPORT UP TO 9185 FROM 7726 - another rise towards the upper watch zone matching its not so good but not terrible day in the real numbers yesterday. No longer best score in GM,

TAMESIDE FALLS slightly to 16 325 FROM 16, 956 - no longer highest in GM as Oldham is above.

TRAFFORD DOWN TO 8872 FROM 9496 - back to falling and it has been doing better lately in real data

WIGAN UP TO 11 990 FROM 11 065 - tracking high but flat and not near where it was about sums up its real cases


Others:

CHESHIRE EAST - often tracks neighbour Stockport and does again up a bit TO 8103 FROM 7169

LIVERPOOL - UP to 9314 FROM 8101

WIRRAL - keeps falling like a stone from days in the mid 20K region and second worst in the north under a week ago now TO 5811 FROM 6347


FYLDE & WYRE (The Blackpool holiday coast)

DOWN BIG AGAIN TO 10, 327 FROM 13 788 - Nowhere near the 25K it was up too in the sunshine.

THE GOOD WEATHER GONE AND SO HAVE THE CASES!
 
Healdplace said:
The lambda variant has turned up in the Phillipines this weekend after first appearing in Peru but as yet no evidence it is a variant of concern and seems not to be spreading that quickly to become a threat.
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As likely to be parallel evolution rather than direct transmission.
 
grunge said:
“Of, not with.” The 1st and last bastion of the COVID deniers. Trying to diminish the impact of the virus. Usually posted by those reading stats from Facebook.

All they need to do is take a look at I’m the official stats to see that the “With + 28 days” figure is far lower than the “of, mentioned as a main factor on the death certificate”.

by adding that line the valid point was reduced into nonsense.
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Whos a covid denier ? Im double jabbed , i encouraged my 20 year old son to do so even though he was in serious doubt.

accusing someone of being a covid denier also renders your point as nonsense too my friend. Easy to throw that accusation isnt it

im certainly no denier … but im definitely a living life embracer.

huge difference

nice try though
 
BlueAnorak said:
Not really. Not just in Scotland either. It's lots of mini epidemics riding exponentially then flattening off and then some starting to come down. Some are still on the up some are starting to come down the other side.
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Well yes that is true and the main reason I post everything I can in here as different sets of data tell you different things.

As always TRENDS are the key not day to day numbers that fluctuate. They tell you who is doing well and who is not - and do so better than daily cases which can easily shift due to a small batch of samples delayed a day in testing.

For instance, Stockport gets 100 cases - it has a good day - its Pop Score goes up by just 40 and its weekly pop falls. Next day it gets 150 and the reverse happens 55 Pop Score - goes up - has bad day.

In truth it might well have had 125 cases on both days and had an average day on both.

So the day to day numbers can mislead. So I post the up since yesterday and v last week numbers and stress the v last week is more important. As it shows the trend. These can still fluctuate but the impact is less.

I also post the total cases in the past seven days as that gives another perspective. Obviously a borough with small population - eg Bury - IS going to score fewer cases than a big city like Manchester or Salford or large town like Stockport. So that table tells you other things and is more about the spread and how far above and below 1000 the weekly cases are.

Bolton WAS over 2000 and on top when in trouble. It is now one of the best and way below. Again not day to numbers but the wider picture.

The Weekly Pop Score numbers are probably the most important that I post daily. So if you read just one make it THAT.

Because the POP evens out the population to show what difference 100 cases in Bury v 100 in Stockport mean. AND it also shows you the week to week trend in every borough - going up or down and by how much. Falling a lot - good news. Rising a lot bad news. It is visually simple to show who is doing well and who is not across 7 day period and is why the government use it to make decisions on who is in troubke and who is not.

Of course, the really important numbers are the deaths and the hospital patient data.

As cases anywhere are less important by far than how many are making people sick.

Unfortunately - in their wisdom - Gov UK do not release this data at all at weekends. And we get three days of it on a Monday.

But those are the numbers to follow along with the Weekly Pop Scores I post for GM.

They tell us the key things. The rest are just nuance.
 
marcus said:
Whos a covid denier ? Im double jabbed , i encouraged my 20 year old son to do so even though he was in serious doubt.

accusing someone of being a covid denier also renders your point as nonsense too my friend. Easy to throw that accusation isnt it

im certainly no denier … but im definitely a living life embracer.

huge difference

nice try though
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I wasn’t specifically calling you a denier, it’s a general point about that “with not of” comment.

that line is used by them all the time, and you used it in exactly the same way they do, to reduce the impact of this virus.

The simple fact is. Using that line turned a valid point about % of cases vs hospitalised vs deaths. into total nonsense, as the official stats show more people in this country have died of the virus than “with+28 days”.
 
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WALES DATA

THIS IS FRIDAY ONLY - SAT & SUN ARE PUBLISHED TOGETHER ON MONDAYS

4 deaths - was 3 last week & 5 week before

1099 cases - was 864 last week & 719 week before
 
Russia has had its fourth successive day with over 800 deaths. Highest numbers over the pandemic.

From around 25,000 daily cases.

Only 25% have had one dose of vaccine there. And 20% both doses.

However accurate these numbers are the HUGE gulf between cases v deaths there and the UK is obvious.

As is the reason why.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
1. That % is of the adult population. U18s are likely much lower and act as a reservoir.

2. A fair fraction of those are either from a single jab or from previous natural infection. They're much more vulnerable to infection/ reinfection than double jabbed.

3. If the adult population is 50 million or so, then even 94% protected leaves 3 million completely vulnerable. That would take months to burn out at 30,000 a day.

4. Vaccines aren't 100% effective.

5. It might be that immunity is waning amongst the early vaccinated (though I think the evidence for that is limited).

Almost every other developed nation on earth is vaccinating children now. We desperately need to get on with that and do everything we can to cover the remaining unvaccinated.

We're yet again in danger of sleepwalking into another wave - Israel right now are seeing continuing growth and are above our infection rate. Why should we be different?

Schools and universities returning are highly likely to boost infections as they did last year.

We're currently at very roughly 100 deaths a day and 1000 hospitalizations. Israel's doubling time is about 2 weeks. Our current caseload is so high it gives us very little time to respond if things start to go tits up in Autumn.
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I think we'll end up re-vacciating soon. Question is will it be with a new vaccine or will it be a 3rd dose of a existing vaccine. IMO we could get rid of Covid if there is a will to do it. WT ad Alpha has gone because the vaccine works agaisst them.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

AS ZOE SHOWED EARLIER STILL TRENDING UP HERE SADLY

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1498 cases - was 1240 last week

7.4% positivity - was 6.0% last week

331 patients - - down 5 on yesterday - was 360 last week

40 ventilated icu - up 1 on yesterday - was 40 last week
 
grunge said:
I wasn’t specifically calling you a denier, it’s a general point about that “with not of” comment.

that line is used by them all the time, and you used it in exactly the same way they do, to reduce the impact of this virus.

The simple fact is. Using that line turned a valid point about % of cases vs hospitalised vs deaths. into total nonsense, as the official stats show more people in this country have died of the virus than “with+28 days”.
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Ive never reduced the impact of the virus , how could i? Why would i?

Ok ill re-state the question .. whoever it was that initially said about 30k new cases .. how many of those are hospitalised ? How serious is it?
surely by us all being jabbed it means that such a high number of cases isnt the problem it once was? Too many on here are still banging in about it, but it isnt going away is it? So lets live life! I am!!
 
Healdplace said:
Russia has had its fourth successive day with over 800 deaths. Highest numbers over the pandemic.

From around 25,000 daily cases.

Only 25% have had one dose of vaccine there. And 20% both doses.

However accurate these numbers are the HUGE gulf between cases v deaths there and the UK is obvious.

As is the reason why.
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Also considering how much they fiddle their numbers by then it’s a whole lot worse than these figures.
 
marcus said:
Ive never reduced the impact of the virus , how could i? Why would i?

Ok ill re-state the question .. whoever it was that initially said about 30k new cases .. how many of those are hospitalised ? How serious is it?
surely by us all being jabbed it means that such a high number of cases isnt the problem it once was? Too many on here are still banging in about it, but it isnt going away is it? So lets live life! I am!!
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Do you think that if we have 30k cases and 100 deaths a day in the SUmmer it will decline into the Winter?

Of course we don't know. But it looks to me like we need boosters or new vaccines. Whatever is shown to work. Carrying on at the moment is not having much effect.

My bottom line is can I do the thinks I want without worrying? I can now. Not sure what will happen in the Winter
 
Marvin said:
Do you think that if we have 30k cases and 100 deaths a day in the SUmmer it will decline into the Winter?

Of course we don't know. But it looks to me like we need boosters or new vaccines. Whatever is shown to work. Carrying on at the moment is not having much effect.

My bottom line is can I do the thinks I want without worrying? I can now. Not sure what will happen in the Winter
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As you like to mention a variant or vaccines not working as effectively then yes boosters .. who argues against that!

but im not sure the population will take any forms of lock downs anymore
 
Just at a walk in centre with 16yo. Found out about it randomly from Facebook, nothing on the official website at all. Poor publicity, but he'll have at least some protection before school starts.
 
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