Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - 4 DAY WEEKEND DATA

SAT:

By AGE:-20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (13), 60 - 79 (37) 80 PLUS (34)

By REGION:- 11 East, 12 London, 23 Midlands, 12 NE & Yorkshire, 10 North West. 6 South East, 11 South West

NW Trusts:- 2 each in Lancashire, Liverpool & Manchester & 1 each in Pennine Acute, Tameside, Wirral & Wigan



SUN:

By AGE:- 40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (12), 80 PLUS (12)

By REGION:- 6 East, 16 Midlands, 4 North West, 5 South West - all others 0

NW Trusts:- 2 Liverpool, 1 each in Manchester & Tameside



MON:

By AGE:- 40 -59 (4) 60 - 79 (8), 80 PLUS (8)

By REGION:- 4 East, 14 Midlands, 1 North West, 1 South West - all others 0

NW Trusts:- 1 Manchester


TUE:

By AGE:- 40 - 59 (2) 60 - 79 (7) 80 PLUS (15)

By REGION:- 9 East, 7 Midlands, 5 North West, 3 South West - all others 0

NW Trusts:- 2 Liverpool, 1 each in Manchester, Morecambe & Tameside


FOUR DAY TOTALS:

DEATHS:- 160

By AGE:- 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (26), 60 - 79 (64) 80 PLUS (69)

NW Trusts:- 20

6 Liverpool, 5 Manchester, 3 Tameside, 2 in Lancashire & 1 each in Morecambe, Pennine Acute, Wirral & Wigan
 
ZOE APP DATA

Predicted cases DOWN 295 to 55, 772. First fall in a couple of weeks

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 7371 (down from 10K and 9K on the previous two days)

Now on 720, 005 UP from 712, 634.

But signs of a slow down & ongoing infections will always change after the trend in daily cases change up or down.
 
ZOE APP REGIONS


QUITE A BIT OF CHANGE HERE TODAY


NORTHERN IRELAND - still top but FALLS again FROM 977 / 2248 to 946 / 2159


YORKSHIRE -also down but still in second ahead of the NORTH WEST

FROM 808 /1093 to 791 / 1074


NORTH WEST NOW THIRD

But sadly is edging up FROM 800 / 1001 TO 801 / 1053

Close to going back into second place


South West not far behind either on 800 / 1001 - though that is slightly down on day like mst other England regions bar the North West ,

LONDON is falling well. And has become one of three (all Southern) regions in the lowest pink watch zone. on 645 / 824 down from 666 / 848.

The others in the lowest watch zone are South East on 668 / 805

Lowest of all is EAST ENGLAND on 623 / 810 DOWN from 644 / 835


SCOTLAND rising has lost top spot and now exited the lower watch zone and has risen above East, London and South East in the rankings:

However, today - like the England regions bar North West - is DOWN a tad:

SCOTLAND DOWN TO 703 / 986 FROM 704 / 996


WALES also slightly down

On 690 / 1027 FROM 693 / 1033
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST


Zoe has bad news if you live in Stockport. Now worst in GM and one of the top 6 worst in the whole North West. It has been building in the case data sadly but let us hope they have got this one wrong as GM on a whole is doing well otherwise.


GM Boroughs:-


BOLTON DOWN to 14, 434 - halved in two days and now not top scorers

BURY UP slightly to 8426 - Bury inches up but one of the lowest in GM.

MANCHESTER FLAT at 8543 - still doing pretty well here

OLDHAM DOWN to 4905 - been falling for days and now the lowest in GM.

ROCHDALE flat at 8235- another borough overcoming its problems it seems

SALFORD falling daily to 6228 - stable & no longer the worst Pop Score in GM.

STOCKPORT UP a lot again to 18, 582 - worst numbers here in months and now the most in GM. If Zoe is right this has gone badly awry somewhere.

TAMESIDE which usually tracks Stockport is instead saying on 6093 - way behind Stockport now. WE will see if the real cases reflect that as they have not so far.

TRAFFORD another sadly going up and up in recent days on 11, 685 - but well behind Stockport

WIGAN Falls a little to 17, 761 - now second in GM behind Stockport according to Zoe.


The thing to recall about these numbers is they are ongoing symptomatic cases so not meaning necessarily more cases now just in the recent past. It is trends not literal numbers or rises that matter here.

The actual definition of the number is Estimated Active Cases Per Million People.

So for instance Manchester has about 50% of that million population so those numbers with Covid are now (around 4300) whereas Stockport's lower population means it has just over a third of its number above - so in fact in a week has risen from parity cases to being around 7000 and easily the most in GM curremtly.






OTHERS:-

Cheshire Easthas left Stockport tracking far behind. It is still high on 10, 104 but not close to SK.

Liverpool on 8256 matchng Manchester well still

West Lancashire (in land from Southport) is on 26, 396 and been escalating faster than Stockport


The Blackpool area has risen a bit too but both Wyre & Fylde are only around 11K.


Preston on 23, 035 and Chorley on 26, 354 - are the only other NW areas above Stockport's GM high score right now. South Ribble was above too until today but has fallen to 17, 282.
 
blueyorkie said:
Thanks that much appreciate, glad you’re getting over it ! I was told not to have a test at the end of self isolating as it will automatically be positive due to antibodies in the system. How long did you leave before testing? Cheers
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I tested after 10 days and was still positive though the second bar on the test kit was much faded compared to earlier tests. I think yesterday was day 14 when I finally became negative.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

7 deaths - was 10 last week

6029 cases - was 4323 last week

14.9% positivity - was 14.5% last week

585 patients - up 34 on yesterday - was 364 last week

54 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday - was 43 last week


THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE STILL RISING A LITTLE BUT THERE ARE HINTS THE SIZE OF THE INCREASE IN CASES IS SLOWING DAY TO DAY - AS THE POSITIVITY RISE INFERS TOO.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE APP NORTH WEST


Zoe has bad news if you live in Stockport. Now worst in GM and one of the top 6 worst in the whole North West. It has been building in the case data sadly but let us hope they have got this one wrong as GM on a whole is doing well otherwise.


GM Boroughs:-


BOLTON DOWN to 14, 434 - halved in two days and now not top scorers

BURY UP slightly to 8426 - Bury inches up but one of the lowest in GM.

MANCHESTER FLAT at 8543 - still doing pretty well here

OLDHAM DOWN to 4905 - been falling for days and now the lowest in GM.

ROCHDALE flat at 8235- another borough overcoming its problems it seems

SALFORD falling daily to 6228 - stable & no longer the worst Pop Score in GM.

STOCKPORT UP a lot again to 18, 582 - worst numbers here in months and now the most in GM. If Zoe is right this has gone badly awry somewhere.

TAMESIDE which usually tracks Stockport is instead saying on 6093 - way behind Stockport now. WE will see if the real cases reflect that as they have not so far.

TRAFFORD another sadly going up and up in recent days on 11, 685 - but well behind Stockport

WIGAN Falls a little to 17, 761 - now second in GM behind Stockport according to Zoe.


The thing to recall about these numbers is they are ongoing symptomatic cases so not meaning necessarily more cases now just in the recent past. It is trends not literal numbers or rises that matter here.

The actual definition of the number is Estimated Active Cases Per Million People.

So for instance Manchester has about 50% of that million population so those numbers with Covid are now (around 4300) whereas Stockport's lower population means it has just over a third of its number above - so in fact in a week has risen from parity cases to being around 7000 and easily the most in GM curremtly.






OTHERS:-

Cheshire Easthas left Stockport tracking far behind. It is still high on 10, 104 but not close to SK.

Liverpool on 8256 matchng Manchester well still

West Lancashire (in land from Southport) is on 26, 396 and been escalating faster than Stockport


The Blackpool area has risen a bit too but both Wyre & Fylde are only around 11K.


Preston on 23, 035 and Chorley on 26, 354 - are the only other NW areas above Stockport's GM high score right now. South Ribble was above too until today but has fallen to 17, 282.
Click to expand...

Do you reckon we will head into another restrictions or even lockdown in next few months based on current trajectory of rates ?
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

7 deaths - was 10 last week

6029 cases - was 4323 last week

14.9% positivity - was 14.5% last week

585 patients - up 34 on yesterday - was 364 last week

54 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday - was 43 last week


THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE STILL RISING A LITTLE BUT THERE ARE HINTS THE SIZE OF THE INCREASE IN CASES IS SLOWING DAY TO DAY - AS THE POSITIVITY RISE INFERS TOO.
Click to expand...

Was just going to say, totally agree it looks like the growth rate may be slowing based on the past couple of days figures. Hopefully follows a similar pattern to what happened after the last easing of restrictions in June time when things sky rocketed initially then settled before falling again.

This bit just personal opinion, but hearing whispers of hospitality restrictions (again), I'm not sure I was on board with in any case but even more so with the perhaps cautious optimism from the last couple of days (and that's all it is). I'd see how things settle (or don't) from here. Trouble is the government seemed slow to react to the fact cases were rising and *now* seems to be the time they're panicking when those signs for optimism are perhaps there. Why does it always feel like their press conferences and reactions are about a week out of date? Infuriating.
 
splinter said:
Diabetes..no surprise there in todays society junk food on tap 24/7 obesity in kids the ticking time bomb now coming home to roost..Will they change will they fuck..natural selection
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while a lot of that is true its pretty much just down to calorie intake, no matter what the reasoning for it. there were reports out a while back that a lot of pro athletes will go on to stage 2 diabetes quite early in life due to calorie loading diets before events.

When you look at the stats. Diabetes being top is no real surprise, but Obesity is quite a way down the list.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Do you reckon we will head into another restrictions or even lockdown in next few months based on current trajectory of rates ?
Click to expand...
I am not sure. What happens in England schools may be the real issue. As you have to assume that is why cases rose in Scotland so much in past week or two - though it started before schools there I think.

England has not shown any evidence of going up or down much at all right now. Which on the face of it is odd as only the schools not yet back are the obvious difference.

However, N Ireland - who got this wave last - is already seeming to slow and never went very high. Wales is hard to call and have a high spillover from England people with second homes and caravans there and visiting and they have reported quite a few of the daily cases attributed to Wales live in England.

And if the Scotland peak is short lived and the fall continues we might see any or all or something else entirely in England if schools drive a rise up here as it will be so many weeks after the other opening ups that should be driving cases - such as football.

So I doubt anyone will leap until it is clear action needs to be taken.

The hospital data is the key and THAT has been rising but is nowhere near where it was in past waves and staying fairly flat.



Scotland has 585 in hospital and 54 on icu ventilator beds today from 6000 or so cases.



It peaked in the Winter wave at 2053 patients (5 times as many) and 161 (3 times as many) on ventilators in hospital around mid January. Cases then were actually about ONE THIRD only of those today. As we were not testing as many as now to identify less severe cases.

So you can probably triple the difference.

In other words around 15 times as many people per reported case in January ended up as a patient than do so now.

It will be about 9 times as many with the Ventilators.

So IF we were seeing anything like 8000 + patients and 450 on ventilators in Scotland we would be in real trouble.

But we are not even close and likely never will be.

Nothing much changes with England just bigger numbers all round.

The vaccines have been a giant game changer and things we would have done in January are not necessarily required now if the hospital data pans out like that.

THIS data is the thing to watch - not cases - the majority of which are in essence just positive tests of people who will never go near hospital. A thing that was significantly less true in all past waves BECAUSE we did not yet have the vaccination programme.
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
Do you reckon we will head into another restrictions or even lockdown in next few months based on current trajectory of rates ?
Click to expand...
All depends on how the trajectory of hospitalisations and deaths go, I suppose.

I know people can feel like shit, and long Covid is an issue; but if the NHS are coping and not too many people are dying (as statistical as I’m making deaths sound, I know every death is as bad as each other), there may not be a need to restrict too severely or lockdown.

With data coming out that shows that people having contracted the virus having increased immunity to it afterwards, for those who don’t get too ill with it it’s almost worth them contracting it (especially those refusing the vaccine).

As dry and unemotional talking about herd immunity is, it is a medical term for a reason.
 
splinter said:
Diabetes..no surprise there in todays society junk food on tap 24/7 obesity in kids the ticking time bomb now coming home to roost..Will they change will they fuck..natural selection
Click to expand...
Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune condition not related to obesity or eating junk food. Lots of research into Type 1 suggests that an illness (such as a viral infection) can later cause Type 1 diabetes in people, which I suspect happened to me when I was diagnosed with it. Type 1 can also be caused by genetics passed down from parents. Some people are being diagnosed with diabetes after recovering from Covid, which adds some credence to the above research.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 12 last week

1313 cases - was 1648 last week

9.3% positivity - was 10.4% last week

10, 620 weekly cases - was 11, 886 last week

135 care home outbreaks - was 134 last week

391 patients - was 373 last week

37 ventilated - was 26 last week

Big jump in ventilated patients but other data still doing fairly well and falling in many cases as it has for past week like England,
 
32, 181 cases - big jump up on yesterday

Up 5705 on yesterday

And up 1343 on last week when it was 30, 838

50 all settings deaths - no meaningful comparison week to week here due to the Bank Holiday delay in registration.
 
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