Coronavirus (2021) thread

[unicorn]

Unhappily the numbers not good for the North West today.

Whilst most areas are down and South West at just 189 has the lowest number in any region since last Summer.

The NW rises by 124 to 894 - its highest in 10 days and the biggest rise in the UK as Yorkshire falls from 885 to 811

So for the first time in a week NW is the the highest region.

I have to suspect that whatever happened to the numbers on Friday when they were so low I doubted them openly is still being corrected and playing out in adjusting the data as Sunday numbers are not usually high ones.

If so this will have worked itself through by the start of the week and normality might resume.

I guess we will see.

Thanks as always for the analysis @Healdplace

I won't be worrying too much about numbers just yet; 7 day average cases still down week-on-week and as you'll no doubt confirm shortly they're not stopping the decline in hospitalisation.

It would, of course, be interesting to see a breakdown of cases in Manchester/the North West by age banding, to get a sense of the impact of school returns.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly the day was poor for GM today which I think must have been the source of whatever data issues occurred on Friday. If we ever get told.

Numbers up by 78 on yesterday to 492 - highest GM total in ten days and a whopping 156 up on last Sunday - a near 50% wk to wk rise.

This takes the GM numbers up to 55% of the NW - second highest split of the NW in six months.

Every single borough up week to week:-

Rochdale by 37, Bury by 25, Manchester 24 the most and only Salford with a rise of 9 week to week was even in single figures.

So every single GM borough rose a good bit today and the GM Pop scores will all be pretty badly hit today.

 

[Healdplace]

Seems there was an issue from Friday. Others spotting it now. So I was not going crackers when I did so on Friday. Likely as I have this day to day record in detail for GM and it stood out as an anomaly being too low.

Looks like it was a problem of missing data then creating this artificial rise today.

Basically the 4800 was too low and they have added on the missing cases over the past 2 days. Perhaps region by region and it was the NW add on today.

May be a few more tomorrow. Though I think the bulk is now topped up. And by Tuesday we should be back to normal numbers.

So there have really been no significant changes in these 4 days. It just looks like it as the backlog is added from the artificially low score on Friday.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks as always for the analysis @Healdplace

I won't be worrying too much about numbers just yet; 7 day average cases still down week-on-week and as you'll no doubt confirm shortly they're not stopping the decline in hospitalisation.

It would, of course, be interesting to see a breakdown of cases in Manchester/the North West by age banding, to get a sense of the impact of school returns.

Yes, as I said earlier in one of the data posts the case numbers going up and down within the margins they are now is of no consequence unless they clearly rise steadily. Why I paid such attention to the Friday 'dip' as I felt it was distrustful data. But even now that it seems it was the difference caused is actually less severe not more so and cases are not at all an issue.

Like I said from the posts on regions the deaths are falling and the hospital numbers are falling and no sign of this stopping and unless the cases really rise by quite a bit to mean even a small proportion of them entering hospital and getting really sick impacts those numbers then the key metric now is hospital data not cases.

Though changes on a weekend in hospital data is usually modest.

 

[i8rags]

33 all settings deaths,

5312 cases - down 275 on yesterday.

But which is up 694 on last Sunday.

And even up 135 on two Sundays ago.

So it does seem inevitably that cases have risen a little with the easing. But as yet nothing that seems to be in the scale of being a problem.

Schools testing

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Can someone explain to me this
I live in Sale (Trafford area) and I'm in my 40s so probably have to wait until may for my 1st jab.
I know 3 people younger than me who also live in Trafford with no health conditions and they have had their 1st jab.
Why is this happening?

 

[bluealf]

Can someone explain to me this
I live in Sale (Trafford area) and I'm in my 40s so probably have to wait until may for my 1st jab.
I know 3 people younger than me who also live in Trafford with no health conditions and they have had their 1st jab.
Why is this happening?

On my rounds a woman told me on Friday that she was having her jab today, this was in Scotland though but she was only in her 30's, she was saying did I think it was fair for her going to get it, I said I would if selected, I did ask if there was any reason, she said when she asked them they said it was because she had been an asthma sufferer as a child, so maybe your friends have something similar on their records?

 

[BLUEMATT23]

On my rounds a woman told me on Friday that she was having her jab today, this was in Scotland though but she was only in her 30's, she was saying did I think it was fair for her going to get it, I said I would if selected, I did ask if there was any reason, she said when she asked them they said it was because she had been an asthma sufferer as a child, so maybe your friends have something similar on their records?

No don't think so its probably them and other people playing the system and that's disgraceful.

 

[bluealf]

No don't think so its probably them and other people playing the system and that's disgraceful.

My wife had it Friday as well oddly but she is in the age range, her parents had their second jab Saturday and I am still waiting for my first, think I might be in the delay category, I am 48 the calculator says end of March to the first week of April but I think I will be lucky to get it by then tbh.

 

[Tonster]

No don't think so its probably them and other people playing the system and that's disgraceful.

Playing the system? How?