Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

furlough isnt an answer. Im guessing you kind of know that what i said is inevitable if the vaccines dont work.

if the vaccines don’t work. Then I can’t imagine what would happen.

 

[Healdplace]

Very similar on the factory count, Sheffield Brightside is the Yorkshire equivalent of Rossendale !

You're right, it's the fact that Yorkshire is getting the Kent variant last, though those unprotectable factories are the places where it spreads. That said, there are plenty of postcodes in Sheffield, for example, with less than 3 cases in the last week, and I suspect most positive cases are relatively young and fit now.

Yes I think that is true. The bits of data I have posted on who is testing positive shows clearly that the percentage over 60 is dropping (indeed more so the over 80s) and the main driver is coming from the under 30s.

As these are much less likely to need hospital (even Bill Roache - aka Ken Barlow- at 88 got over it without hospital it would seem) then the testing numbers are not going to make much difference to the hospital numbers as the death figures still falling even at pretty low numbers now show.

Deaths and patients in with Covid are never going to be zero ever again I suspect. They just need to bottom out at a level driven mostly by the seasons and/or behaviour. So we do not need to track numbers much as we do not for dozens of other reasons people get sick.

The data support the vaccines working well and when by autumn we have vaccinated the younger adult population - all over 40 have had both doses and those over 60 a booster based on the variants (much as we do with flu each autumn) then Winter 2021/2 will look less worrying that winter 2020/21 and hopefully Covid will still be around but in a way nobody much notices in the way we do not for most other awful diseases.

I am really hopeful this thread will not even exist other than in archive this time next year and with luck even six months from now.

 

[Healdplace]

I just checked the numbers in hospital this year and on virtually every Monday the figure has shown a slight increase or been static over the previous day, as Healdplace often helpfully notes.

Be reassured; on 18th Jan there were 34,336 Covid patients; now it's down to 3,466. A 90% drop since the peak.

Data here;

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

I do try to mention it on this day every week - though it has been less necessary when posting the Monday data in the past few weeks. But the impact was still there even when it was dropping on other days faster.

It is not a Covid effect either. Just how hospitals work. They tend to try to discharge people at the end of the week to help patients get home and weekend staffing - where fewer peple get released - and there can be a hold over of patients who get admitted at the start of the week from people who wait over the weekend to speak to their GP before being sent there to check something out.

Its just human behaviour. Not Covid.

 

[Manc in London]

Really positive news, with these numbers I wonder if they will start being able to differentiate those that die with, or because of covid

I don't think it is as straightforward with some as you think it may be.

To be honest, it really isn't important.

 

[Quad]

These jounalists simply dont understand that this lockdown has to be the last. If the vaccines work they work, if they dont we cant just keep doing this endless cycle of lockdowns, the later isnt sustainable from an economic or social point of view.

I been to crossfit this morning and my mental health feels tons better and I don't suffer at all normally cant imagine how hard it is for lots of people

 

[TINY]

There are loads of us who have lost people in the last year, but it's hard to imagine anyone going through more than you are. Heart and soul Tiny, my sympathy is not enough, but it's all I can offer. Please be ok, and keep reaching out to anyone and everyone.

Thanks mate. I’m not ok but trying

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Scores after today:~

Borough / Score Today / Score 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop scores going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop Score is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 115 / 105 UP 10 Testing positive 9.5%

Bolton 106 / 114/ Down 8 Testing positive 8.9%

Tameside 105 / 122 / Down 17 Testing positive 8.0%

Rochdale 99 / 106 / Down 7 Testing positive 9.4%

Manchester 98 / 92 / UP 6 Testing positive 9.4%

Wigan 88 / 104 / Down 16 Testing positive 8.7%

Salford 77 / 113/ Down 36 Testing positive 8.8%

Trafford 71 / 39 / UP 32 Testing positive 6.9%

Bury 71 / 100 Down 29 Testing positive 8.9%

Stockport 67 / 81 / Down 14 Testing positive 7.0%



Great day if you live in Stockport - as it takes advantage of Trafford faltering in the last week to grab the lowest weekly Pop score in GM title back which Trafford took in the early new year. That looked very unlikely even just a week ago when Trafford was 44 and Stockport 88. But they clawed back the overall gap in Pop score in that week by 20 to 178 too. That lead will be far harder for Trafford to lose I suspect.

This is Stockport's lowest Weekly Pop in 6 months.

However, all of GM is doing well and falling now - except for Oldham that is rising and takes over top spot today and Manchester rising slightly (though improving) and Trafford of course.

Shows how fast this table can change and perhaps better to say Trafford had a not so good week after many very good ones lately. But it is always harder to improve when you are on top as everyone is gunning for you and one lit slip is presented as a disaster. As City fans know only too well.


Weekly cases: Bury top on 136. Trafford slips to second a bit behind on this measure too at 168 after weeks on top. Stockport too on 198 falls below the 200 mark for first time in months. With other boroughs closing in too - notably Salford just 1 away.

Others Bolton 303, Manchester 545, Oldham 272, Rochdale 221, Salford 201, Tameside 237, Wigan 290

 

[TINY]

Thats awful TINY. I really hope he pulls through

Thanks mate. We’re trying to pry ourselves in so I can give him a proper talking to, and remind him that he can’t go after seeing the murderers win the keague and that he needs to stick around to watch City. I miss him already and we’re all doing what we can for him

 

[TINY]

If everyone can do anything they can, it would be eternally appreciated

 

[ayrshire_blue]

My thoughts with you and yours, @TINY . Hope your old man can get through this.