Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

Research does not get much more policy-relevant than this. When updated data in the Imperial team’s model1 indicated that the United Kingdom’s health service would soon be overwhelmed with severe cases of COVID-19, and might face more than 500,000 deaths if the government took no action, Prime Minister Boris Johnson almost immediately announced stringent new restrictions on people’s movements. The same model suggested that, with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed (see ‘Simulation shock’).
April 2020 Nature.com

Nature.com lol. Is that a top shelfer??

250,000 people in UK could die as result of virus outbreak - experts

Coronavirus: the symptoms

www.standard.co.uk

 

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA


The England hospital data was updated for the last 5 days in one go today.

Will only post the numbers below as they were on last Friday- first day in the held over data - to today.

Plus wk to wk from today as the rest in between were just up and down by small numbers over the long weekend as usual over normal weekend - fewer ins and outs typical and more so on Bank Holiday.

The news is good. Numbers are down almost everywhere - though not by huge numbers.

NW though had one of the best falls in patients and ventilators over the past few days. And South West became the first England region to have under 100 in hospital over Easter too.



UK total:


Patients down to 3154 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 36, 094 in 78 days) :- lowest since 4 October

Ventilators down to 454 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3623 in 72 days) : lowest since 9 October


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

156 Covid admissions (4 April) following 179, 178, 180, 225, 283, 277, 295 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down in 5 days by 340 to 2588 v 3283 last week :- lowest since 4 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 31, 748 in 78 days)

Ventilators: down 64 to 406 v 518 last week :- lowest since 11 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3330 in 72 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 5 days to today and v last week



East down 14 to 198 v 260 // down 9 to 33 v 46

London down 67 to 601 v 717 // down 21 to 126 v 153

Midlands down 77 to 529 v 669 // down 23 to 81 v 111

NE & Yorks down 22 to 476 v 564 // down 3 to 72 v 80

North West down 77 to 481 v 632 // down 9 to 59 v 71

South East down 68 to 208 v 321 // down 2 to 25 v 34

South West down 15 to 95 v 120 // down 2 v 10`

 

[Healdplace]

It will be interesting to see how the figures for the next couple of days compare with these totals. Roughly the same numbers or small rises will be good news. However the most important figures will be the ones on admissions and discharges from hospitals.

As you see from above (we had all the past 5 days data in one go today) the hospital data over the long weekend was good news and the biggest fall was today. So fingers crossed.

I update these numbers in here daily and have for a while now but England have downgraded the pandemic and as a result the weekend numbers now will NOT be posted until Monday so no updates on Saturdays and Sundays. And a three day summary on the Monday.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Hopefully, the number of vaccines being given will rise substantially tomorrow (post bank holiday weekend). My Uncle went for his second jab in Nottingham and the centre had run out. He was told to come back next week.

 

[unicorn]

You're fucking kidding!

We've spent most of a year under unprecedented restrictions to minimise deaths and you think 250k was an overestimate of what would have happened without them?

Seriously, you're so determined Ferguson must be wrong you've lost all reason.

250k deaths would've looked conservative if the vaccines (or our procurement) failed; 33k deaths in January alone.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

simple fact the SAGE scenarios are always worst case by a significant amount.

Simple fact: that's simply wrong.

Just for instance, check out Friston and the UCL group.

And Spector is flat out wrong too; Vallance was mocked for saying we could get to 200 deaths/ day in October and we ended up at 1,200.

The main legitimate criticism if Ferguson is that their group, and SAGE as a whole, was way too optimistic while the morgues were filling in Italy last March, so tens of thousands died unnecessarily as we responded later than the rest of the world.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

250k deaths would've looked conservative if the vaccines (or our procurement) failed; 33k deaths in January alone.

Absolutely, though most of the deaths were saved by lock down rather than vaccines. Their benefit is more now and into the future.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

500k deaths is actually probably a significant underestimate knowing what we do now, for a completely unmitigated epidemic.

Infection fatality rate is estimated around 0.75%, there are 67 million in the UK and you get additional deaths due to health service collapse under that strain.

Do the maths.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

115,000 new cases there today.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

As you see from above (we had all the past 5 days data in one go today) the hospital data over the long weekend was good news and the biggest fall was today. So fingers crossed.

I update these numbers in here daily and have for a while now but England have downgraded the pandemic and as a result the weekend numbers now will NOT be posted until Monday so no updates on Saturdays and Sundays. And a three day summary on the Monday.

Once again HP thanks for all your hard work in collating all these numbers on our behalf.