Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Easter maybe?

But why is it just England that has gone way up and everywhere else is down?

 

[carlosthejackal]

White Hart pub car park in Cheadle which has been turned into an outdoor beer garden is absolutely rammed which is odd as on a normal Monday at 3.30 I doubt that there are more than half a dozen people in the pub. Traffic also mental, worst I have seen it since before lockdown. I understand people have been going stir crazy but if we aren't careful then things could go pear shaped.

Just passed two local boozers near me , absolutely rammed and zero social distancing, the police had just turned up as I was passing, no staff on the entrance so basically a free for all , sadly this will only lead one way .

 

[Bluesince1979]

Just passed two local boozers near me , absolutely rammed and zero social distancing, the police had just turned up as I was passing, no staff on the entrance so basically a free for all , sadly this will only lead one way .

What way will that be ?

 

[grunge]

A modelling approach, unfortunately, which has been widely criticised.

Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Unfortunately, the modelling approach used to produce this analysis has a history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions.” They had got it wrong in the past, he said, pointing to the forecast in late September that “a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (eg 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November”. That, of course, was before the Kent virus took off.

UCL team’s claim that herd immunity set to be achieved draws criticism

Many scientists critical of University College London Covid-19 forecast as ‘over-confident and over-optimistic’

www.theguardian.com

The model is updated with the latest emerging data; hilarously today it claims R=1.39, having changed its mind from the run that generated those headlines. It appears to be rather unstable, to put it kindly.

Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

Dynamic Causal Modelling, UCL, UK

www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk

yeah there is always the risk that its off. even knowing what the herd immunity percentage is seems to be a tricky calculation.

trying my own calculations.

but going by this

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data for the UK - Office for National Statistics

Antibody and vaccination data by UK country and regions in England from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

www.ons.gov.uk

as of 14th March about 54% of the population test positive for anitbodies from either having the virus or vaccinations.

14th march 26m people had been vaccinated. we're now at 32m, so we're at least 6m more people vaccinated which is 10% more since then, so we're probably around the 65%ish mark ( not even gonna attempt to calculate an overlap of vaccine+natural )


1st Dose vaccines has slowed down a lot this month.

 

[shemnel]

Big jump in England cases given the other UK nations.

3568

Miles away from Zoe App today.

From 1, 206, 563 tests mind you. Versus just 468, 906 yesterday.

Tripled tests. double cases.

For a Monday (Sunday testing) that sis unexpectedly high.

Versus 2762 last Monday and 4654 week before and 5342 week before

probably the schools going back no? Sunday night is one of the bigger LFT nights. havent actually seen the data yet though, might check later

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

What way will that be ?

more cases, deaths and another lockdown unless you all behave.

 

[willipp]

What way will that be ?

Straight to the beer garden

 

[ayrshire_blue]

New cases are now so low, we can genome sequence every case and blitz test post codes where new variants are identified.

But while that's taking place, if and when a new variant is in will have already began to spread. Then afterwards factor in a 4 week delay of dilly dallying over whether to lock down again or not.

Sorry, and I really hope I'm wrong and this post can be revisited in November time with everything still looking positive as is the case now, but after the past year and a bit which we've had I can't shake the feeling that there'll be more trouble ahead, and from anything I'm reading the only way that's likely to happen is variant related.

 

[DRINKLEVEDRY]

Just passed two local boozers near me , absolutely rammed and zero social distancing, the police had just turned up as I was passing, no staff on the entrance so basically a free for all , sadly this will only lead one way .

My lad said the Elizabethan is overflowing.

 

[Healdplace]

It looks like the big jump today is a lot of England cases from weeks ago found under a sofa.

Apparently only 2200 or so of todays 3500 are from the past 7 days.

So no real panic.

Why Gov UK is not saying this yet I do not know.

It is all over the place still with several GM boroughs missing in one set of data but there in another and regions not updated yet either.

Seems it is quite a big readjustment again still going on.

But looks like nothing to panic over.

It was very odd that England would suddenly jump when the other three nations fell today. So good to know this is not what happened.