Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

yeah there is always the risk that its off. even knowing what the herd immunity percentage is seems to be a tricky calculation.

trying my own calculations.

but going by this

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data for the UK - Office for National Statistics

Antibody and vaccination data by UK country and regions in England from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

www.ons.gov.uk

as of 14th March about 54% of the population test positive for anitbodies from either having the virus or vaccinations.

14th march 26m people had been vaccinated. we're now at 32m, so we're at least 6m more people vaccinated which is 10% more since then, so we're probably around the 65%ish mark ( not even gonna attempt to calculate an overlap of vaccine+natural )


1st Dose vaccines has slowed down a lot this month.

Agree with all of that; the level of immunity is now for sure high enough to make a big difference to transmission.

 

[Manc in London]

Off to the pub between 6pm and 9pm to discuss City with a blue and an Arsenal fan. Bloody freezing. Will be wearing a beanie, scarf and my tight jogging bottoms as long johns.

Getting an Uber each way as my local bus serves Barnet General Hospital. As luck would have it, earlier today, Uber sent me a 50% discount for my next 10 trips. Get in.

 

[frothy]

Everyone's hardier than me, no way I am sitting outside in the freezing cold lol.

Used to think that When we went into the Sumerbee bar in City Square at a night game in the middle of November, freezing your bollocks off drinking a ice cold pint of Cider, if i had said to the missus shall we go and stand outside in the back garden for a drink she would have told me to fuck off, but she quite happy to do it at City

 

[Bluesince1979]

more cases, deaths and another lockdown unless you all behave.

Whats the point in the vaccinations then? Stay locked up forever eh?

open pubs and shops for us all to stay out? Get a grip

 

[Bluesince1979]

Straight to the beer garden

Ive beat you too it.

 

[Manc in London]

either safe or it ain't.

You should introduce yourself to the concept of risk ;)

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data is pretty good news too. The weekend data is only reported across 3 days on Monday and few leave and more go in on Mondays typically before falls resume during the week from Tuesday.

So the three day data is out and tells us how things went over that period in England.

The rise today was only 12. Last Monday it rose by 8.

But the daily admissions numbers day by day seem down week to week also.

Across the period Patients fell by 213 and Ventilators by 25.

Full report for UK and the regions later as usual - but North West came out of this weekend well.

Patients fell every day and in total by 71 to only 351 in hospital in the region as of today. Best performance of any region by the looks of it.

And ventilated patients also fell from 56 to 45 - again the best performance of any region.

Looks like England may well fall below 2000 patients in the next day or two.

And possibly even the UK too by end of week. Though that is less probable.

Tbh cases matter far less if the hospital data keeps going the right way.

 

[Healdplace]

Btw even given the 1000 or so old cases dating back as far as January that seem to have been added today in England (just days after about 8000 similarly old ones were deducted!) there were so many extra tests carried out week to week (it being Easter last Sunday/Monday)that the positivity rating still fell.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But while that's taking place, if and when a new variant is in will have already began to spread. Then afterwards factor in a 4 week delay of dilly dallying over whether to lock down again or not.

Sorry, and I really hope I'm wrong and this post can be revisited in November time with everything still looking positive as is the case now, but after the past year and a bit which we've had I can't shake the feeling that there'll be more trouble ahead, and from anything I'm reading the only way that's likely to happen is variant related.

I think there will almost certainly be bumps in the road, like the scare over the AZ blood clots.

But it seems pretty unlikely a variant situation will arise which puts us back to square one:

- this virus fundamentally mutates more slowly than flu
- it's had much more chance to mutate than flu (far more cases)
- but we haven't generated new strains which are unaffected by previous immunity

Some return to aspects of social distancing to keep at levels akin to seasonal flu seems possible, but not, I think, anything remotely like what we've been through this last year. As long as we act rapidly in the face of a significant resurgence, unlike last Autumn.

Just personal opinion, yours is equally valid.

 

[Healdplace]

Cannot update the regions as they have only done West Midlands and South West with these add on numbers. Then gave up! Perhaps they are asking why they did not just update the total and only include the past 5 days numbers in todays total. Would have made way more sense. Possibly will update later.

GM scoreboard will follow.