Coronavirus (2021) thread

[unicorn]

Johnson is right (could be the first time I've ever written that), and I've posted to that effect a number of times.

Most of the drop to date is due to the lockdown rather than the vaccine.

Compare the the USA: same vaccine takeup (near as dammit), 3x reduction in cases vs our 20x reduction (very approximate figures).

The vaccine didn't drive most of the reduction, but does allow us to open up.

Most modelling points to a potential significant surge if we just open up now. Not certain, but potential.

That said, the impact of lockdown and vaccines has been far better than I dared hope, so I wouldn't be against an acceleration, if things are still in the right direction in another three weeks or so.

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

In Chile, we're learning the hard way that record Covid vaccinations don't mean the end of the pandemic (inews.co.uk)

They went big with the Chinese vaccine and vaccinated a fair amount of people. Real world data there are better vaccines out there at the moment.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

It reduces the risk of both, but neither to zero.

The headline efficacy figures quoted are actually neither - that is the reducing in your likelihood of showing symptoms and tested positive.

So it's all rather confusing.

 

[03 March 2002]

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

Vaccines are basically a controlled introduction for the various elements of our immune systems to encounter the virus. They prepare the 'memory' parts of our immune system for an encounter, should that encounter happen. There's no definitive way to say you won't get (very) ill, it's subjective upon your own immune system, but by and large, you shouldn't get (very) ill as you'll be able to recognise the assault and counter the viral load before it becomes overwhelming.

Whether it's picked up as a positive is a matter of the sensitivity of the test used. If it's sensitive enough to detect just 1 particle then you'll get a positive, if the limit of detection is say 10^4 and you've only got 10^3 then you'll show as negative. The good news is that the PCR test is one of the most sensitive tests on the planet so we are fortunate.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

My argument is not with this but that creating a battle of the vaccines as to which is best is eroding confidence and inferring this IS a choice when often it is not.

Vastly different from the annual flu vaccine where nobody has the faintest idea who makes what you are given or its stats relative to anything else. As such you have THE jab or do not.

We have engineered a situation where the concept of being vaccinated is now about consumerism and choice of which is best. Not necessity to help protect you without thinking.

I fear that may have long term implications for all future vaccination programmes beyond Covid.

I agree with you up to a point and especially about knowing the vaccine brands.

I think most people would still take any of the approved vaccines, although they’re level of media coverage can add to people’s anxieties. There’s also been plenty of cooperation between scientists, some vaccine manufacturers and some Governments. Some politicians and media commentators have been less helpful.

 

[Marvin]

I think the short answer is "bad luck" - this was impossible to predict prior to the rollout and could have been the other way around.

I've read that the driver is an immune reaction to platelets: "vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia"

Which, I'm sure you will agree, nicely explains everything (!)

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

The link between adenovius vectors and blood clotting was in the literature about a decade ago. Very surprising that the experts didn't know about it. They must have done.

 

[unicorn]

Vaccines are basically a controlled introduction for the various elements of our immune systems to encounter the virus. They prepare the 'memory' parts of our immune system for an encounter, should that encounter happen. There's no definitive way to say you won't get (very) ill, it's subjective upon your own immune system, but by and large, you shouldn't get (very) ill as you'll be able to recognise the assault and counter the viral load before it becomes overwhelming.

Whether it's picked up as a positive is a matter of the sensitivity of the test used. If it's sensitive enough to detect just 1 particle then you'll get a positive, if the limit of detection is say 10^4 and you've only got 10^3 then you'll show as negative.

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The link between adenovius vectors and blood clotting was in the literature about a decade ago. Very surprising that the experts didn't know about it. They must have done.

I think all RNA treatments are linked to thrombocytopenia too?

So arguably equally likely to be a problem for RNA vaccines?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though

Yes, but much less likely.

For instance, the Pfizer vaccine was quoted in clinical trials as 95% effective; that means for every 20 people who showed symptoms and tested positive on the placebo, one did on the vaccine.

There are also figures around now for people who are asymptomatic but test positive. The vaccines reduce that substantially too, don't recall figures.

 

[03 March 2002]

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

I would expect someone who is vaccinated to be able to generate a positive test result. The hope is that they wouldn't, but many factors are at play. If you're infected with relatively low viral load, your immune system may supress it quickly, if you're infected with a high viral load, it may take your immune system longer to combat it, hence a positive result.
Even this example is rudimentary, there are so many factors at play.