Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Just up the road from me. I was wondering about the Grey Horse. Do you have to book?

Nope just turn up. All seemed pretty well organised yesterday.

Which is more than I can say for town. I work in the northern quarter and Stevenson Sq was chaos by 4pm.

 

[Len Rum]

Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.

Correction to your post.
He did not refer to cases only in his statement.
He said the reduction in HOSPITALISATIONS, DEATHS AND INFECTIONS is due to the lockdown and not the vaccination programme.
IMO the lockdown has got us to the low numbers we are currently experiencing across the board and the vaccine is now keeping the numbers down.
In European countries their problem is they are vaccinating while the disease is accelerating whereas we are vaccinating when it is in decline.
On this rare occasion I believe BloJo's statements is correct, but he has made it mainly for political reasons as he is now seeking to underplay his earlier statements (also political) about the vaccine success as he is worried that people are becoming too relaxed and complacent in the post lockdown period.He's also concerned about vaccine resistant variants getting a foothold in the unvaccinated population.
Again mixed and confused messaging for political reasons.

 

[Manc in London]

Morrison's Dunkinfield around 4:30 yesterday. Three girls, two lads, mid to late teens, all together, no distancing, no masks, gobby shites. The Asian Security guard (about mid twenties) came into the store and asked them to leave as they were breaking the rules. One of the girls said she had panic attacks, Security man said it doesn't stop you social distancing. Next thing, interfering woman joins the argument, puts her arm round the girl and tells her not to leave the store. I politely tell her the Security man is doing his job and it's nothing to do with her, she replies:

"He's fucking grooming these kids, fuck off"

She's not representative of her age group but racism amongst morons does still exist.

I must add the young group detached themselves from the woman, when I left the store I could see them having a calm conversation outside with a couple of Managers, hopefully they may have learned a lesson.

That's Ducki for you. :)

 

[Healdplace]

If indeed it is lockdown that has got us where we are and the vaccinations are just keeping the numbers down then I fear a lot of people are going to be very unhappy when we inevitably have to go back into another lockdown in six months time maybe. Nobody wants that approaching Christmas again.

The key to vaccine efficacy is the change in the age ranges of those catching it. This infers they do their job . Which never was to eradicate Covid and stop everyone catching it - impossible now as it is jut too infectious - though that is widely not understood.

What matters is they keep the most vulnerable at a low level and mitigate the symptoms like now so we will reduce the stress on the NHS even in Winter.

Covid is not disappearing even with near 100% vaccinated. We will be re vaccinating for some years I suspect to keep on top of variants before it might find a low death/high infectivity variant that thrives and we can live with. But like we luve with colds because they are very infective but not especially harmful.

Indeed I have a hunch that we will get there with new medications that mitigate Covid if you get it into not much worse than a cold. That WOULD be the real game changer alongside the impact of the vaccines which will never be total.

Constant vaccinations will likely drive more variants that seek to get around them as much of the world is possibly 2 - 3 years from being vaccinated. So in a sense we hope we find a variant that thrives and we can endure and if we find the right drugs to treat might allow us more freedom than a constant war with Covid variants would

 

[inbetween]

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

Yes they would test positive. PCR tests detect viral DNA (a bit more complicated than this though) which will be present in an infection whether you've had a vaccine or not.

 

[Healdplace]

That story from Chile posted earlier is obviously concerning - BUT three big caveats.

They are more or less where we were in vaccinating when cases and deaths were much higher than now.

They are using a different vaccine whose efficacy is less clear.

And they are heading into Winter when Covid is going to be more dangerous and easier to spread.

And they are batting the British variant (atop the South Africa one) that we had in our mid winter and created mayhem for a time before lockdown and vaccinations took off.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Looks like some of those taking the J&J vaccine may be suffering similar side effects to AZ - Officials in the US are calling for a pause in its use.

Research scientists are pretty sure there's a relationship between the AZ vaccine and the Adrenovirus that carries the vaccine payload as the stats are so similar.
If the J&J vaccine adverse reaction stats are similar to AZ then it would be another confirmatory indicator.
Regulators away from the UK seem to be more keen on having a totally safe vaccine rather than stopping people dying of Covid-19.
For reference:
Chance of having an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/250,000
Chance of dying from an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/1,000,000
Chance of drowning in your bath = 1/685,000
Chance of being killed by a cow in the UK = 1/942,000
Chance of dying drinking 0.5 litres of wine = 1/1,000,000
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year = 1/35,720

Note: the chance of dying from an encounter with a cow on the continent is higher because UK breeds are generally more docile.

Killer Cows

Keeping our footpaths safe for walkers

killercows.co.uk

 

[BlueAnorak]

The African Union backed out of purchasing the AZ / Oxford vaccine (because of blood clots) to pursue buying J&J. Hopefully, the African Union aren’t going round in circles and have proper plans to protect their populations.

They did that because they didn't think the AZ vaccine was as efficacious for the SA variant- not for any other reason. They seem to have ignored the near 100% protection from death bit.

 

[inbetween]

Research scientists are pretty sure there's a relationship between the AZ vaccine and the Adrenovirus that carries the vaccine payload as the stats are so similar.
If the J&J vaccine adverse reaction stats are similar to AZ then it would be another confirmatory indicator.
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year =
Regulators away from the UK seem to be more keen on having a totally safe vaccine rather than stopping people dying of Covid-19.
For reference:
Chance of having an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/250,000
Chance of dying from an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/1,000,000
Chance of drowning in your bath = 1/685,000
Chance of being killed by a cow in the UK = 1/942,000
Chance of dying drinking 0.5 litres of wine = 1/1,000,000
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year = 1/35,720

Note: the chance of dying from an encounter with a cow on the continent is higher because UK breeds are generally more docile.

At the moment how many people are dying of COVID in the under 30's? How many have even died in the last 3 months?

This is the perfect time to be highly selective of the vaccines we use as we learn more about them.

 

[Healdplace]

Yes they would test positive. PCR tests detect viral DNA (a bit more complicated than this though) which will be present in an infection whether you've had a vaccine or not.

Agreed, and I was not ignoring you on this - Unicorn - but I just post the data. I am no expert. There are far more qualified people to comment on these things doing so in here so I am simply deferring to them to reply as I would only be making guesses.