Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Scotland data:

3 deaths - was 0 last week

221 cases - was 259 last week

1.6% positivity - was 2.0% last week

133 patients - down 21 since yesterday - was 196 last week

20 ventilated icu - down 1 since yesterday - was 21 last week


The hospital data here has really started tumbling again. A one third fall in patients in a week whilst numbers are so low is very impressive.

The UK might just make sub 2000 patients this week at this rate.
 
Scotland Vaccination Update:

2, 682, 706 first doses given - 13, 983 today - was 11, 145 yesterday & 12, 536 last week

605, 126 second doses given - 14, 952 today - was 21, 299 yesterday & 7406 last week

Nicola Sturgeon reports that 'virtually all' over 60 have had a vaccine

And so have 96% of those aged 55 to 59 and 84% of those aged 50 to 54.

Over 60%of the adult population in Scotland have now had at least one dose.
 
Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.
 
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Cityfan said:
Difference in deaths from last week inScotland is probably meaningless as last week was reflecting the Easter weekend into Easter Monday when registry offices are usually closed.
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Yes, I have been pointing that out all weekend in the comparisons and often cited two weeks back as a fairer comparison but decided not to do so again today as last Tuesday often saw some catch up reporting from previous days across the weekend so the difference was not as clear cut in case numbers.

But the death data in the UK did see an extra day or so delay in the Easter catchup versus the usual weekend catch up that always occurs - Easter or not. So what you say is true.

Scotland TWO weeks ago had 411 new cases at 2.8% positivity and 12 deaths - versus today 221 - 1.6% - 3 deaths today.

THAT is a big fall by any measure in two more clearly comparable numbers. Patients were then two weeks ago 250 versus 133 today - so almost halved in 14 days.
 
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Looks like some of those taking the J&J vaccine may be suffering similar side effects to AZ - Officials in the US are calling for a pause in its use.
 
Healdplace said:
Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.
Click to expand...

I have just seen this, I don't believe a word that comes out of this man's mouth, or the government. He's pushing for everyone to get jabbed then for what reason? If predominantly only lockdowns work then what is the point?
 
paulchapo said:
I have just seen this, I don't believe a word that comes out of this man's mouth, or the government. He's pushing for everyone to get jabbed then for what reason? If predominantly only lockdowns work then what is the point?
Click to expand...

The truth is as I noted he just did not explain properly. He was telling the truth - cases likely will rise as we reopen - just waffling around it so much the message that came out was misleading and misguided.

The vaccination is not the main reason cases are low. But he ought to have made clear it IS why hospital data and deaths have flatlined and THAT matters much more right now.

It is the advisors I blame. The messaging through the pandemic has been a shambles at times.
 
Healdplace said:
Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.
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Johnson is right (could be the first time I've ever written that), and I've posted to that effect a number of times.

Most of the drop to date is due to the lockdown rather than the vaccine.

Compare the the USA: same vaccine takeup (near as dammit), 3x reduction in cases vs our 20x reduction (very approximate figures).

The vaccine didn't drive most of the reduction, but does allow us to open up.

Most modelling points to a potential significant surge if we just open up now. Not certain, but potential.

That said, the impact of lockdown and vaccines has been far better than I dared hope, so I wouldn't be against an acceleration, if things are still in the right direction in another three weeks or so.
 
Zoe App Data

This is still going in the opposite direction to yesterdays cases.

Down 67 to a new low of 1644.

And ongoing symptomatic infections reported down in the day by 1789 to 35, 282.

And down from 50, 144 last Tuesday.
 
RobMCFC said:
Looks like some of those taking the J&J vaccine may be suffering similar side effects to AZ - Officials in the US are calling for a pause in its use.
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Not a surprise - very similar concept to AZ, would expect similar side effects, though impossible to know for sure until many millions dosed.

My view on this is really simple: If no other vaccines were available, we wouldn't even be worried about this, we'd just be getting on with it. I hate the lockdown, the death toll has been horrendous, and I think the tiny risk for these vaccines is a risk worth taking. Crack on, get as many vaccines into as many arms as fast as possible, inform public and medics so we know what to watch out for.

As an aside, the "one shot jab" concept for J&J is rather dubious IMO - it's likely that the AZ jab would have had the same effect if tested as one shot only. Scientifically we expect the booster to give better long term protection. I think the J&J trial on two shot is still running, and I personally expect that to show added benefit and additional shots offered. But that's way into speculation.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Johnson is right (could be the first time I've ever written that), and I've posted to that effect a number of times.

Most of the drop to date is due to the lockdown rather than the vaccine.

Compare the the USA: same vaccine takeup (near as dammit), 3x reduction in cases vs our 20x reduction (very approximate figures).

The vaccine didn't drive most of the reduction, but does allow us to open up.

Most modelling points to a potential significant surge if we just open up now. Not certain, but potential.

That said, the impact of lockdown and vaccines has been far better than I dared hope, so I wouldn't be against an acceleration, if things are still in the right direction in another three weeks or so.
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I agree here as I had already noted.

I was not saying he was wrong to say what he did.

Just that he failed to mention the difference between what is causing cases right now and what is causing the huge drop in serious cases that end up in hospital or dying.

That was what he failed to clarify and why it mattered.

Of course we should not accelerate opening. But the vaccine needs to be credited too for achieving what it is doing so the roll out to younger people who will be less likely to take up does not wane.

That was my concern. They are the ones desperate to open up faster. And they need to understand why the vaccination programme is the key to staying on track to get there as if they do not get vaccinated we might all yet have to go back into lockdown. Especially given the new variant threat.
 
Healdplace said:
Yes, I have been pointing that out all weekend in the comparisons and often cited two weeks back as a fairer comparison but decided not to do so again today as last Tuesday often saw some catch up reporting from previous days across the weekend so the difference was not as clear cut in case numbers.

But the death data in the UK did see an extra day or so delay in the Easter catchup versus the usual weekend catch up that always occurs - Easter or not. So what you say is true.

Scotland TWO weeks ago had 411 new cases at 2.8% positivity and 12 deaths - versus today 221 - 1.6% - 3 deaths today.

THAT is a big fall by any measure in two more clearly comparable numbers. Patients were then two weeks ago 250 versus 133 today - so almost halved in 14 days.
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Great figures (deaths aside of course) and even though the numbers are getting really low we're still seeing huge drops in percentage terms
 
Regional Scoreboard yesterday

Yesterday's England regional data is available - nothing having changed.

Whether it will be clarified or adjusted in tonight's data remains to be seen.

As feared the North West was indeed the highest for the first time in a while - though only just and everywhere was up somewhat. And the Southern regions added a lot too despite being at recent low levels further implying this is quite old data when they were higher.


SOUTH

East Up 263 to 369

London Up 251 to 422

South East Up 251 to 362

South West Up 202 to 204




MIDLANDS

East Up 211 to 365

West Up 190 to 311



NORTH

North East Up 121 to 184

Yorkshire Up 72 to 496

And, NORTH WEST Up 331 to 501


As you can see Yorkshire added very little compared to the rest and the NW increase was surprisingly big - indeed almost a 200% increase in the day.

So we can see where the focus of the problem was. Whatever that backlog problem is.

That it was as is being indicated driven by cases from weeks or even months ago is further hinted at by the fact that Greater Manchester only went up last night by 92 of that 331 - easily the lowest % rise by GM recently.

Indeed it in one go reduces the GM % of the NW to 43.5% - pretty much where it was up to the past few weeks. And about right for population levels in the region.

That is an extraordinary fall from 74.1% in one go and weeks in the 50s and 60s. Which I had noted often in here as puzzlingly high. And in the end stopped citing earlier this week as it was clearly not meaningful any more.

If - as now seems likely - the majority of the added on cases yesterday from weeks ago were from areas outside of Greater Manchester - the under reporting of those areas versus the more accurate seemingly reporting in GM would have distorted the pattern to make it seem GM was doing much worse than the rest of the region even whilst falling steadily.

This is speculation. I guess we will see if the numbers and percentages return to more normal levels tonight
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Not a surprise - very similar concept to AZ, would expect similar side effects, though impossible to know for sure until many millions dosed.

My view on this is really simple: If no other vaccines were available, we wouldn't even be worried about this, we'd just be getting on with it. I hate the lockdown, the death toll has been horrendous, and I think the tiny risk for these vaccines is a risk worth taking. Crack on, get as many vaccines into as many arms as fast as possible, inform public and medics so we know what to watch out for.

As an aside, the "one shot jab" concept for J&J is rather dubious IMO - it's likely that the AZ jab would have had the same effect if tested as one shot only. Scientifically we expect the booster to give better long term protection. I think the J&J trial on two shot is still running, and I personally expect that to show added benefit and additional shots offered. But that's way into speculation.
Click to expand...
The African Union backed out of purchasing the AZ / Oxford vaccine (because of blood clots) to pursue buying J&J. Hopefully, the African Union aren’t going round in circles and have proper plans to protect their populations.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
on the face of it, why is it the "traditional" vaccine methods being linked to blood clot issues but not the mRNA ones?
Click to expand...

I think the short answer is "bad luck" - this was impossible to predict prior to the rollout and could have been the other way around.

I've read that the driver is an immune reaction to platelets: "vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia"

Which, I'm sure you will agree, nicely explains everything (!)

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org www.sciencemag.org
 
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