Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

58 cases - was 48 last week

0.4% positivity - was 0.4% last week


That is now every weekday this week with cases - under 100 (102 for Sun AND Mon combined) - 53 (Tue) - 64 (Wed) - 68 (Thu) and 58 (Today)

 

[Healdplace]

Really? Link would be nice.

Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:

“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”

Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.

Over? Definitely not yet IMO.

It was NOT me saying this.

I was responding to the multiple posts in here this morning before me saying it was being reported as such in the media today.

I have removed the word official as it is only SOME scientists at Oxford really claiming this being reported by the media. And others are - like you and me - more cautious. Hence my post about managing the messaging. People are desperate for this kind of news.

It may sell papers but it may also cost us all if we jump too soon.

That was the point of my post. Sorry if I did not make that clear. I have a busy week work wise as I mentioned a few days ago and cannot be here so much.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It was NOT me saying this.

I was responding to the posts in here this morning saying it was being reported as such in the media today.

Ah sorry, I thought you were saying it had been officially announced.

Presumably just the Julia Hartley Brewer brigade as per usual then.

 

[grunge]

Really? Link would be nice.

Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:

“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”

Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.

Over? Definitely not yet IMO.

Yeah I did find the comment quite funny. cant be much of a expert saying it if they don't know the definition of Pandemic....

Covid pandemic over in Britain, say experts

Britain is no longer in a pandemic, experts have said, as new data showed the vaccination programme is reducing symptomatic Covid infections by up to 90 per cent. In the first large real-world study of the impact of vaccination on the general population, researchers found that the rollout is...

uk.yahoo.com

only link I could find that wasn't paywalled

 

[Healdplace]

Yeah I did find the comment quite funny. cant be much of a expert saying it if they don't know the definition of Pandemic....

Covid pandemic over in Britain, say experts

Britain is no longer in a pandemic, experts have said, as new data showed the vaccination programme is reducing symptomatic Covid infections by up to 90 per cent. In the first large real-world study of the impact of vaccination on the general population, researchers found that the rollout is...

uk.yahoo.com

only link I could find that wasn't paywalled

In the version I read they said it was no longer a pandemic here but endemic.


Which is equally confusing because it will still be a pandemic even if one country is totally immune and they keep it out. Like New Zealand all but did.

And it was always endemic in the UK as part of the pandemic.

I am assuming the media just went for click bait. As usual.

Plenty of scientists are jumping on the story now thankfully.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales Vaccination update:

1, 742, 273 first doses given - 14, 818 today - was 15, 083 yesterday & 16, 983 last week

653, 537 second doses given - 17, 882 today - was 13, 142 yesterday & 14, 702 last week

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App data:

Cases 1064 - up 14 from 1050 yesterday (it has been more than double Zoe all week in real test data)

Symptomatic ongoing cases 21 , 819 - down 798 from 22, 617 yesterday.

There is little change in the regional data with Yorkshire and North West ahead of the pack as usual.

One oddity is Bury showing up as the area in the whole of the north west and one of the worst in the UK with the most ongoing cases when it is doing really well in actual cases reported day to day and was lowest in GM again yesterday with just 5 out of 163 cases in the region and from 300 in NW.

 

[ayia napa blues]

Just a thought on the pandemic being over in the UK.

We are undoubtedly in an amazing position now compared to the ongoing tragic issues in many places elsewhere but that can very easily reverse if we react like every day is VE day. Celebrated as the end because locally the war WAS over. But the war itself was not. That came months later on VJ day.

That is the messaging we should be emphasising. The more who holiday in the UK not elsewhere in 2021 the better for both the UK economy and the risk of reimportation that they clearly cannot easily prevent however many people we tell not to avoid self isolating. Short of taking everyone off a plane from Benidorm and locking them in Strangeways for the week after. Which obviously we never will.

I am surprised incentives to have a staycation are not already being given by the government.

It is easy and tempting to jump to conclusions the vaccines worked (as to a degree they clearly have) and that is that.

But we should be careful as it is unclear as yet what is the relative impact of vaccine versus lockdown. The data looks good on the balance.

However, you could argue that the vaccines eliminated flu as that has been minimal whilst we have ramped them up in the winter and all but disappeared as a deadly threat.

Unfortunately they did in Australia too in their winter (which was last Summer for us - and so long pre vaccine) - so the impact was clearly more the measures taken to avoid Covid - from washing hands more to lockdown - that tamed flu. Easy to assume misleadingly why things happen.

Not being a downer as we are in a position much of the world can only still dream about and the vaccines are a triumph. Just warning that over confidence is now a bigger threat than the virus as it is something everyone will embrace after this past year from hell.

Managing the messaging from here is crucial.

Mate no offence but am sick of hearing holiday in the UK.

£1400 we got quoted last week for 4nights in a caravan in Newquay. Nothing short of a p take .

I don't know what thw answer is tho can the travel industry really survive another dead year . Then there will be no travel

 

[west didsblue]

Mate no offence but am sick of hearing holiday in the UK.

£1400 we got quoted last week for 4nights in a caravan in Newquay. Nothing short of a p take .

I don't know what thw answer is tho can the travel industry really survive another dead year . Then there will be no travel

Why would you want to go from Ayia Napa to Newquay for your hols?

 

[Tim of the Oak]