ell
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Have you tried booking one anyway? I know people who were a few weeks shy of 60 when they got called and the booking website still let them book, but people who were closer to 50 it would reject the booking.
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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west didsblue
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Are you posting this because you believe it or for a laugh?
Final, Irrefutable Proof that the Covid-19 Pandemic Never Existed
In an astonishing 12 minute video Dr Vernon Coleman uses the UK Government's own statistics to prove conclusively that there was never a pandemic and that covid 19 is no more dangerous than the annual flu. In recebrandnewtube.com
BlueHammer85
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no longer a UK pandemic, but it is a endemic
Now that COVID has been in the community for 16 months in countries like the USA I assume different states had different responses to COVID like we did in Australia in respect of lockdowns , infection tracing and control , quarantine manditory mask wearing and the likeand the like.
the data should be in hopefully from a reliable source on say each State in the US their hard lockdown periods.
Perhaps to our US mooners do you have any reliable data since inception on a state by state breakdown of deaths for each country with a summary of days of lockdown for example something fairly simple to ascertain the impact of otherwise of lockdowns on death rates with and or from covid?
this would be useful for future management of community spread as immunisation continues I would suggest.
if the UK have managed responses by regions for example as opposed to rigid nationwide responses then this data would be useful to as no doubt death rates per 1000 would vary from region to region notwithstanding population density to measure the impact and effectiveness of lockdowns for example.
No doubt in isolation states with excellent tracing and tracking protocols would do much better I would assume than those that don't.
the data should be in hopefully from a reliable source on say each State in the US their hard lockdown periods.
Perhaps to our US mooners do you have any reliable data since inception on a state by state breakdown of deaths for each country with a summary of days of lockdown for example something fairly simple to ascertain the impact of otherwise of lockdowns on death rates with and or from covid?
this would be useful for future management of community spread as immunisation continues I would suggest.
if the UK have managed responses by regions for example as opposed to rigid nationwide responses then this data would be useful to as no doubt death rates per 1000 would vary from region to region notwithstanding population density to measure the impact and effectiveness of lockdowns for example.
No doubt in isolation states with excellent tracing and tracking protocols would do much better I would assume than those that don't.
Healdplace
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Thanks and it certainly is the pattern by the looks of it.
The Northern Ireland data is very similar. Last time I checked it the over 60s had fallen to sub 10% of the cases from pushing 30% and the under 30s were at about 62% from being half that. This is why even 2000 cases a day are now less of an issue as most of them are people who will not get terribly ill from it.
And if you look at the data I posted a couple of days ago - all the day to day England hospital admissions by age since mid January - you can see how the under 30s have doubled in those 3 months whilst the over 60s have plummeted.
Then the day after I posted that - yesterday - the number admitted to hospital in England in total with Covid fell to 98 - the first sub 100 number in many months.
So it is not a one off.
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M18CTID
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Every country in the world releases Covid figures on a daily bases regardless of how many or how few cases and deaths there are so I don't see the issue here, and with the key figures - hospitalisations, serious illness, and deaths - continuing to trend downwards in this country then I can't see how the current data can be seen as scaremongering. If anything, they're a source of huge optimism especially when comparisons to previous weeks and months are highlighted with the excellent work @Healdplace does on here every day.
Healdplace
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Just a thought on the pandemic being over in the UK.
We are undoubtedly in an amazing position now compared to the ongoing tragic issues in many places elsewhere but that can very easily reverse if we react like every day is VE day. Celebrated as the end because locally the war WAS over. But the war itself was not. That came months later on VJ day.
That is the messaging we should be emphasising. The more who holiday in the UK not elsewhere in 2021 the better for both the UK economy and the risk of reimportation that they clearly cannot easily prevent however many people we tell not to avoid self isolating. Short of taking everyone off a plane from Benidorm and locking them in Strangeways for the week after. Which obviously we never will.
I am surprised incentives to have a staycation are not already being given by the government.
It is easy and tempting to jump to conclusions the vaccines worked (as to a degree they clearly have) and that is that.
But we should be careful as it is unclear as yet what is the relative impact of vaccine versus lockdown. The data looks good on the balance.
However, you could argue that the vaccines eliminated flu as that has been minimal whilst we have ramped them up in the winter and all but disappeared as a deadly threat.
Unfortunately they did in Australia too in their winter (which was last Summer for us - and so long pre vaccine) - so the impact was clearly more the measures taken to avoid Covid - from washing hands more to lockdown - that tamed flu. Easy to assume misleadingly why things happen.
Not being a downer as we are in a position much of the world can only still dream about and the vaccines are a triumph. Just warning that over confidence is now a bigger threat than the virus as it is something everyone will embrace after this past year from hell.
Managing the messaging from here is crucial.
We are undoubtedly in an amazing position now compared to the ongoing tragic issues in many places elsewhere but that can very easily reverse if we react like every day is VE day. Celebrated as the end because locally the war WAS over. But the war itself was not. That came months later on VJ day.
That is the messaging we should be emphasising. The more who holiday in the UK not elsewhere in 2021 the better for both the UK economy and the risk of reimportation that they clearly cannot easily prevent however many people we tell not to avoid self isolating. Short of taking everyone off a plane from Benidorm and locking them in Strangeways for the week after. Which obviously we never will.
I am surprised incentives to have a staycation are not already being given by the government.
It is easy and tempting to jump to conclusions the vaccines worked (as to a degree they clearly have) and that is that.
But we should be careful as it is unclear as yet what is the relative impact of vaccine versus lockdown. The data looks good on the balance.
However, you could argue that the vaccines eliminated flu as that has been minimal whilst we have ramped them up in the winter and all but disappeared as a deadly threat.
Unfortunately they did in Australia too in their winter (which was last Summer for us - and so long pre vaccine) - so the impact was clearly more the measures taken to avoid Covid - from washing hands more to lockdown - that tamed flu. Easy to assume misleadingly why things happen.
Not being a downer as we are in a position much of the world can only still dream about and the vaccines are a triumph. Just warning that over confidence is now a bigger threat than the virus as it is something everyone will embrace after this past year from hell.
Managing the messaging from here is crucial.
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Healdplace
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ONS data on the virus published each Friday shows another fall (data is up to LAST Friday - as usual with these things 6 days behind):
England 1 in 610 (last wk 1 in 480)
Scotland 1 in 560 (last wk was 1 in 500)
But the other two nations are slightly up though still at a lower rate than England and Scotland:-
Wales to 1 in 840 from 1 in 920
N Ireland to 1 in 660 from 1 in 710
These are all pretty low levels. And are community levels - not counting hospital or care home cases - although these too are very low as we know.
England 1 in 610 (last wk 1 in 480)
Scotland 1 in 560 (last wk was 1 in 500)
But the other two nations are slightly up though still at a lower rate than England and Scotland:-
Wales to 1 in 840 from 1 in 920
N Ireland to 1 in 660 from 1 in 710
These are all pretty low levels. And are community levels - not counting hospital or care home cases - although these too are very low as we know.
Healdplace
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Zoe also has a regional split suggesting how IF lockdown were eased regionally it would play out based on rates.
It will be no surprise to those who read my posts (not many of you left I know) that Yorkshire would be last out and North West immediately before it along with West Midlands.
Nearly all the southern regions would be out early as they are at lower levels
In this the Zoe data closely reflects the actual cases reported daily with the exception of London which has been the highest in the UK recently again after falling below (presumably that new variant) but is now showing good signs of losing that title and falling back into the southern pack and handing it back to either Yorkshire or North West. Right now it would be Yorkshire.
It will be no surprise to those who read my posts (not many of you left I know) that Yorkshire would be last out and North West immediately before it along with West Midlands.
Nearly all the southern regions would be out early as they are at lower levels
In this the Zoe data closely reflects the actual cases reported daily with the exception of London which has been the highest in the UK recently again after falling below (presumably that new variant) but is now showing good signs of losing that title and falling back into the southern pack and handing it back to either Yorkshire or North West. Right now it would be Yorkshire.
roubaixtuesday
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Really? Link would be nice.
Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:
“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”
Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
www.ons.gov.uk
Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.
Over? Definitely not yet IMO.
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