Fag packet calculations.
Effective R0 = 3.5 (SO case numbers will quadrupole in a week)
THE VERY WORST CASE BASED ON CURRENT UK NUMBERS IS AS FOLLOWS.
A large number of people will not catch Omicron because they will have immunity. The actual numbers over the next few weeks will indicate exactly when herd immunity is likely to kick in.
Date - Cases that week- average Hospitalisations per day the following week.
11/2 - 3k - 4
18/12 - 12k - 17
25/12 - 48k - 69
1/1 - 192k - 275
8/1 - 768k - 1,097
15/1 - 3.072m - 4,388
22/1 - 12.288m - 17,544
(HERD IMMUNITY HAPPENS HERE AROUND THU)
28/1 - 49.152m - A very big number but not relevant as the virus has run out of people to infect.
The numbers in ICU will be small and are likely to only be a result of the exacerbation of existing conditions.
So if it was me for the very worst case:
- Cancel all elective surgery from 1/1 for 6 weeks.
- Every one over 70 to go into isolation from 8/1 for 4 weeks
- Possibly lockdown on the 15/1t but that stretches the tail.
- Vaccine passports are totally useless for Omicron so don't bother. They will only delay the surge by a couple of days.