Coronavirus (2021) thread

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He's repeatedly said he's a mathematical modeller and has criticised mathematical modelling. How much more qualified would you like him to be?
The data is what? 3 maybe 4 weeks old on a new variant of a novel decease and he's made his mind up? WTF. He has no qualifications in epidemiology or virology yet tells those who do they are wrong. Worse still there are some on here who believe him over the experts because it's what they want to hear. Absolute madness.
 
The data is what? 3 maybe 4 weeks old on a new variant of a novel decease and he's made his mind up? WTF. He has no qualifications in epidemiology or virology yet tells those who do they are wrong. Worse still there are some on here who believe him over the experts because it's what they want to hear. Absolute madness.
He is criticising the models they've produced over the course of the last 18 months and pointed out that they are generally on the pessimistic side. It is the models' track record that he is questioning.
 
Because when you test positive on the PCR test, you have to fill in a long form detailing all your movements over the previous days and naming contacts etc. Then T&T contact you.
Ha, I’d like to see them claim I’m a contact of someone, I’d just deny it.
 
Fag packet calculations.
Effective R0 = 3.5 (SO case numbers will quadrupole in a week)
THE VERY WORST CASE BASED ON CURRENT UK NUMBERS IS AS FOLLOWS.
A large number of people will not catch Omicron because they will have immunity. The actual numbers over the next few weeks will indicate exactly when herd immunity is likely to kick in.

Date - Cases that week- average Hospitalisations per day the following week.
11/2 - 3k - 4
18/12 - 12k - 17
25/12 - 48k - 69
1/1 - 192k - 275
8/1 - 768k - 1,097
15/1 - 3.072m - 4,388
22/1 - 12.288m - 17,544
(HERD IMMUNITY HAPPENS HERE AROUND THU)
28/1 - 49.152m - A very big number but not relevant as the virus has run out of people to infect.

The numbers in ICU will be small and are likely to only be a result of the exacerbation of existing conditions.

So if it was me for the very worst case:
- Cancel all elective surgery from 1/1 for 6 weeks.
- Every one over 70 to go into isolation from 8/1 for 4 weeks
- Possibly lockdown on the 15/1t but that stretches the tail.
- Vaccine passports are totally useless for Omicron so don't bother. They will only delay the surge by a couple of days.
 
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What is is with mathematicians and data analysts telling experts they are wrong on here? Do they spend all their time collating others work to the point they think they know better despite having no qualifications to do so? Envy maybe? It's like a site foreman telling an architect they know fuck all.
Just a question, how do you think they come up with the results and predctions they do if not through statistical data analysis?

Edit: To be honest too, I don't think the foreman/architect comparison is a great one. Engineer over architect would probably be better.
 
But it doesn't do that it just encourages loons.

Loons, by definition, are loons, and they will be encouraged by anything that fits in with what they already believe.

Besides it‘s a numbers game. Despite all the froth, the majority of people are pragmatic enough to get the shots, even if only to continue living life normally rather than just the perceived threat. It’s like most people wear masks but you get an uptick when Govt says you have to and the same goes for boosters.
 
What is is with mathematicians and data analysts telling experts they are wrong on here? Do they spend all their time collating others work to the point they think they know better despite having no qualifications to do so? Envy maybe? It's like a site foreman telling an architect they know fuck all.

It’s like you telling a mathematical modeller commenting on mathematical models he is wrong……
 
What is is with mathematicians and data analysts telling experts they are wrong on here? Do they spend all their time collating others work to the point they think they know better despite having no qualifications to do so? Envy maybe? It's like a site foreman telling an architect they know fuck all.
Word to the wise, I’d give the Match Day Thread a miss if I were you…
 
Just a question, how do you think they come up with the results and predctions they do if not through statistical data analysis?
Experts give it to none expert statisticians and analysts to compile. They are good with numbers. They are however completely unqualified to make judgements on new infectious deceases. You do know that some statisticians and data analysts work on numbers for sofa's, condiments, football crowds, marketing etc?
 
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