Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Gabriel said:
Andy Marr asked the same thing to Susan Hopkins, Chief Medical Adviser, and Nadhim Zahawi yesterday, and both evaded answering that distinction.
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It is to a degree academic I suppose. If your relative died earlier than they would because they caught Covid the fact that Covid was the main cause or something else it triggered is not going to make much difference to how you think Covid should be dealt with by society.

A bit like saying someone who fell off a roof and died because he had vertigo did not die because there was no guard rail on the roof.
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You still do things to protect against dangerous situations that are 'caused' from other factors but could be prevented from happening.
 
grunge said:
If it finished him off then its valid to say on the death certificate that its what killed him.

There are some quite solid guide lines from the WHO about what is classed as Covid death vs not for as accurate as possible tracking.

You would hope the % of false positives here would be quite low.
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He’d been bed ridden for a few weeks but wasn’t in immediate danger of dying so even after the heart attack I guess it was correct to say the Covid actually saw him off.
 
Healdplace said:
It is to a degree academic I suppose. If your relative died earlier than they would because they caught Covid the fact that Covid was the main cause or something else it triggered is not going to make much difference to how you think Covid should be dealt with by society.

A bit like saying someone who fell off a roof and died because he had vertigo did not die because there was no guard rail on the roof.
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You still do things to protect against dangerous situations that are 'caused' from other factors but could be prevented from happening.
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This is I guess one of the main confusing points for a lo of people.

For me, If someone dies sooner than they would have normally because of Covid then Covid is a significant contributing factor and it should be listed as such.
 
hammocity said:
My 75 year old Uncle died from Covid according to his death Certificate, he had terminal cancer and was admitted to Hospital after suffering a heart attack but he caught the virus in there amd it finished him off, wasn’t a bad thing tbh because his quality of life was zero.
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Sorry to hear about that mate.

My aunty was similar in summer 2020. She was in hospital for an infection relating to a heart condition she'd had for a few years (mid 70s, life long heavy smoker). She caught covid in hospital and sadly passed away, but she was gravely ill before she caught it and there's no way sadly she was going to come out, irrespective of covid.

The doctors in fact even told us that they weren't particularly worried about the covid and she was only displaying minor symptoms.

She still went down as a covid death though of course.
 
blueinsa said:
Sumpathies to you blue but it’s evidence that the way the numbers have been put together is wrong because it’s clear, your family member did not die of covid, he died with it.

He sad passing should not go down as a covid death imo given his other co morbidities.
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I was surprised but it was when thousands were dying weekly. I think a lot of deaths were listed as Covid in those dark days, there was no post mortem, as Grunge stated there should be strict rules but I’m guessing it wasn’t a priority back then, he was a really poorly man and it was a relief when he passed.
 
blueinsa said:
So you say but you couldn’t be further from the truth.

Sadly these days if you are not 100% in agreement on something, into a box you must go and on this subject, it means you are a tinfoil hat wearing anti vaxxer, conspiracy theorist nut job.

Get your vaccinations, get your booster, get on with life.
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Agree with your last sentence.

However, you aren‘t doing. You’re questioning every single bit of information without proof.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Sorry to hear about that mate.

My aunty was similar in summer 2020. She was in hospital for an infection relating to a heart condition she'd had for a few years (mid 70s, life long heavy smoker). She caught covid in hospital and sadly passed away, but she was gravely ill before she caught it and there's no way sadly she was going to come out, irrespective of covid.

The doctors in fact even told us that they weren't particularly worried about the covid and she was only displaying minor symptoms.

She still went down as a covid death though of course.
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Condolences to you also, dark days indeed.
 
grunge said:
This is I guess one of the main confusing points for a lo of people.

For me, If someone dies sooner than they would have normally because of Covid then Covid is a significant contributing factor and it should be listed as such.
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We can only trust to the medics that the numbers are being reported in the best way possible.

Though it will be a factor in the 'league table'of deaths as our transparency in recording this nuance is not matched by all nations some of whom use data to make it look like they do things better than they do.

Democracies will always appear to do worse in Covid stats than authoritarian states.
 
Btw the week to week Wales data - on Mondays these cover both Saturday & Sunday - is not as yet showing a huge rise from last week that would be indicative of Omicron doubling every 2 days week to week.

Cases last week from the 48 hours 4405 V this weekend 4543. Two weeks ago it was 3969. Three weeks ago 4489. Week before 4520.

So since Omicron arrived cases up 23 in a month.
 
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blueinsa said:
Sumpathies to you blue but it’s evidence that the way the numbers have been put together is wrong because it’s clear, your family member did not die of covid, he died with it.

He sad passing should not go down as a covid death imo given his other co morbidities.
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Apologies to Hammocity for talking so bluntly. Obviously im sorry for his loss and I apologise for not acknowledging that earlier.

Of course it should go down as a Covid death. If someone has 2/3 weeks left and they last only a few days or 1 week because they catch Covid then Covid is a significant contributing factor to there death. How sick they are before this point is not really relevant at all to the diagnosis. Even if it was just the final nudge.

If someone has Covid and happens to get hit by a bus. then obviously they are not a Covid death.

There have been strict guidelines set up by the WHO since early days to say what is/is not a Covid death.

 
grunge said:
Apologies to Hammocity for talking so bluntly. Obviously im sorry for his loss.

Of course it should go down as a Covid death. If someone has 2/3 weeks left and they last only a few days or 1 week because they catch Covid then Covid is a significant contributing factor to there death. How sick they are before this point is not really relevant at all to the diagnosis.

If someone has Covid and happens to get hit by a bus. then obviously they are not a Covid death.

There have been strict guidelines set up by the WHO since early days to say what is/is not a Covid death.

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Someone's life being shortened by a couple of days or weeks from a very likely demise isn't really relevant to normal people as a Covid death.

If it struck down people with 30/40 years left to live in their prime all by itself then that's more relevant. It doesn't though for the most part.
 
Healdplace said:
We can only trust to the medics that the numbers are being reported in the best way possible.

Though it will be a factor in the 'league table'of deaths as our transparency in recording this nuance is not matched by all nations some of whom use data to make it look like they do things better than they do.

Democracies will always appear to do worse in Covid stats than authoritarian states.
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Agreed. While the WHO can set up guidelines there is no way to force countries to use them. Im pretty sure most places are using the WHO's guidlines though
 
marcus said:
My shoulder was buggered from april (1st jab) up until just recently. Lots better now but I do a physical job so not ideal. Booked in for booster and i know whats coming.
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I hope it doesn’t take that long:-(

Have read it can be sore for a few days but there have been problems longer term, seen It mentioned that if they put the needle too high up it can cause a problem. My main sore point is very high up the arm maybe only an inch from the shoulder, hopefully I’m just being paranoid. I never got any arm pain or soreness from the first 2 jabs.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Someone's life being shortened by a couple of days or weeks from a very likely demise isn't really relevant to normal people as a Covid death.

If it struck down people with 30/40 years left to live in their prime all by itself then that's more relevant. It doesn't though for the most part.
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A normal persons definition of a covid death means pretty much nothing then. its a set of guidelines for a reason and is decided by the doctors signing the death certificate and they have to go by what actually happened in front of them.. not guessing in a crystal ball that someone may live x number of years after.

if thats what your after then your never going to get it.
 
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Regarding the ongoing with Covid or of Covid debate, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries compiles a weekly summary of actual deaths versus expected deaths in order to determine excess caused by the pandemic.

Their latest published summary (week 47 2021) estimates 116k additional deaths.

The government figure is 146k so the IFA's estimate is that approximately 20% of those would have died anyway (so probably with Covid rather than of)

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:
www.actuaries.org.uk www.actuaries.org.uk
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
What is is with mathematicians and data analysts telling experts they are wrong on here? Do they spend all their time collating others work to the point they think they know better despite having no qualifications to do so? Envy maybe? It's like a site foreman telling an architect they know fuck all.
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It's all a bit 'My handwriting is really neat therefore I can write a better play than Shakespeare'.
 
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