Coronavirus (2021) thread

[feelymcfeel]

It was for that reason that I thought it was a bit pointless him pursuing this so much, but I think it became a matter of principle in the end. I felt that outside of the full lockdowns (where they obviously had to close anyway) the hospitality sector was unfairly targeted when that industry was doing as much as possible to ensure a safer environment for their customers, whereas the likes of supermarkets were getting away with allowing standards to slip because they're classed as essential.

Agreed mate. The boozers i went in over last summer were really strict with the rules and cleanliness. There were probably very few places that you'd be less likely to catch anything.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

It was for that reason that I thought it was a bit pointless him pursuing this so much, but I think it became a matter of principle in the end. I felt that outside of the full lockdowns (where they obviously had to close anyway) the hospitality sector was unfairly targeted when that industry was doing as much as possible to ensure a safer environment for their customers, whereas the likes of supermarkets were getting away with allowing standards to slip because they're classed as essential.

Yes, I agree that Sachs Lord felt the hospitality sector had been treated unfairly and I tend to agree.

 

[Manchester33]

Looks like the virus was in Italy around late August early September 2019

Very very interesting!

Perhaps we had a spike in Europe in 2019 prior to the major spike in March/April 2020?

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Hopefully.

I saw a report giving positivity as high as 90%(!) which could suggest that case numbers are limited by test availability.

Jees, that's awful. I did think the 'stall' might not be as it seems but time will tell I suppose.

 

[Mike Brock]

Very very interesting!

Perhaps we had a spike in Europe in 2019 prior to the major spike in March/April 2020?

I stayed in Milan for the Atalanta game and also spent some time in Bergamo. A couple of weeks or so after I got home my wife was as poorly as I’ve ever seen her and the doctors didn’t know what it was. From her symptoms I’m pretty sure it was Covid

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

NB THIS IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DATA REPORTED AS USUAL EVERY MONDAY. SO FOR TWO DAYS. TOMORROW WILL PRESUMABLY ALSO BE TWO DAYS JUST THIS WEEK AND SO COVER MONDAY PLUS TODAY.

Last weeks numbers are for the same 48 hour period.


1 death - was 2 last week

65 cases - was 97 last week

0.4% positivity - was 0.5% last week

 

[Manchester33]

I stayed in Milan for the Atalanta game and also spent some time in Bergamo. A couple of weeks or so after I got home my wife was as poorly as I’ve ever seen her and the doctors didn’t know what it was. From her symptoms I’m pretty sure it was Covid

Well going off that video, roughly 10% of the population in Italy had antibodies. The number of people with active, spreadable COVID would have been a bit lower, but it's likely you were exposed to it on your trip.

I've been fortunate enough that I haven't had it (or asymptomatic if I did) but I have family members who were very ill with the flu around December/Christmas 2019 and we're convinced it must have been COVID in hindsight.

The thing that's strange is that those types of figures surely would have lead to overwhelming hospital admissions in Italy in autumn 2019 - I'm not sure if that was the case or not?

 

[Healdplace]

Btw the person who works on the Gov UK website publishing data has been explaining how his bank holiday was ruined yesterday and why it was hours late appearing.

He cited the way Wales had created confusion by changing the data and not releasing clear consistent information as one of several problems they had to clarify before reporting.

Today Wales are more specific about what today's data shows - which they had not been over the weekend. We were left guessing. So was Gov UK it appears.

Though there were other things going on that were the main issue it seems.

Here is what he posted - as I am not sure I fully understand what the problem was but he means they had issues over England death numbers too. Best I quote him directly:-

QUOTE

We identified an inconsistency during QA. Took a while to find the problem (England deaths), report + consult w/ source & decide on action. Then remove 2mil deaths figures & reload from yesterday. Not how I was planning to spend my bank holiday Monday.

 

[Healdplace]

The Zoe data today is a little concerning for Greater Manchester.

UK Cases up 15 on yesterday to 874

Symptomatic cases down 288 on yesterday to 14, 945 today. New low since Zoe started.

The GM numbers though are starting to slightly worry that our politicians have missed what has occurred in Chorley which then spread cases to Bolton and created a big problem there and - just as happened last July - this is starting to leak into surrounding boroughs. As I noted last night possibly distracted by the elections.

Last year missing the Bolton spike in late July put GM into a lockdown spiral for longer than any other part of the UK.

Zoe numbers today show a fall - happily in both Chorley and Bolton.

Data here is local cases / rate per million

Chorley was 335 / 2893 and is now 298 / 2571

Bolton was 485 / 1712 and is now 475 / 1677


But other areas in GM are going UP from a much lower base.

Bury from 27 / 141 to 29 / 156

Manchester from 88 / 162 big to 184 / 338

Oldham from 19 / 83 to 20 / 86

Rochdale from 29 / 133 to 33 / 151

Salford from 28 / 109 to 33 / 129

Stockport from 41 / 142 to 43 / 150

Tameside from 22 / 99 - big rise to 32 / 142

Wigan from 29 / 90 to 34 / 106


But Trafford (like Bolton and the second most infected in GM) also reverses the upward climb of the 'non high' boroughs and falls big -

from 172 / 736 to 67 / 285

I am not an expert in interpreting this data but it looks a bit of a warning sign to me that may be getting missed - especially given what occurred last July/August.

Because of how Zoe works it can be a day or two ahead of the trends in the Gov UK case data.

Guess we will see but the silence out there on Bolton is puzzling.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 7 with 2 from North West.

Only 4 of these were in the past 2 months and so will likely count. Two are catch up from January. The other February.


Last week it was 26 with 4 from North West

These will be lower than usual on a Tuesday due to the Bank Holiday yesterday making registration difficult.

Tomorrow will almost certainly be up to reflect that.

The two from the NW were 1 each from Liverpool and Warrington.

The other 5 were ALL from the Midlands and in Leicester. Probably an end of month catch up

Two of the seven were under 40. Same as the number over 80.