Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Greater Manchester Cases


140 cases today - up 4 on yesterday. Despite the NW drop. You will see below why.

Also up 10 from 130 last Monday. Which is higher than it should be from the NW wk to wk given that the region fell by 52.



The city of Liverpool continues to do well but was up today. They had 5 cases. Pop score has risen by just over 3 across 6 days. Under 1 a day.

Bolton - for comparison - went up 15 on its own just today. And 30 in last 48 hours . This is revealing the huge problem in Bolton. No other GM borough today or in recent days has even been over a single figure number increase let alone that number. Manchester today went up by 3. As did Bury, Stockport and Tameside.

15 a day every day would be a weekly Pop Score of over 100 after 7 days which nowhere in GM has attained in weeks. Bolton is heading there - sadly - whilst almost everywhere else is going down.

For how long though - if the problems in Bolton are not noticed and addressed and they spread.

When numbers spiked in London the media were all over it fearing a new variant. Is anyone looking at what is causing the Bolton outbreak?




Bolton - even by its standards recently - had a terrible day topping the tree easily on 45 - up 4 on the day and 19 week to week. Seeing it more than TRIPLE Manchester out to be sounding big alarm bells somewhere.

Trafford rises by 2 to 17. And amazingly beats Manchester. It is up 5 week to week and struggling also - if not quite in Bolton territory. Its Pop Score rose by 7 and that lead over Stockport once again was cut to 147.

Manchester in contrast to the two above is doing really well and clocked up its lowest numbers in 9 months - falling by 14 to just 14 though also down 7 from last week.

Rochdale up 4 on 13 - which is up 4week to week.

Wigan on 12 is up 3 on the day and 4 wk to wk. In danger of leakage from Bolton before anyone notices I fear

Oldham up 4 to 11 on the day - a fall of 2 on last week.



So 4 boroughs managed single figures today:


Stockport - up 3 to 9 which is up 2 week to week.

Tameside up 4 to 8 which is down 3 from last week.

Bury down 1 to 7 - which is 7 up 1 from last week



But top of the tree today surprisingly is:-

Salford down 5 to just 4 - lowest in some while here. Down 13 week to week.






Weekly total cases:-

Bolton running away with the worst weekly numbers - now over 200 and increasing its lead over the rest a Manchester tumbles to its lowest weekly numbers since last Summer.



Bury 45, Tameside 54, Stockport 63, Oldham 71, Wigan 79, Rochdale 82, Salford 92, Trafford 119, Manchester 191, Bolton 233
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living ther+
e.



Bolton 81 / 49 / UP 32 Testing positive 9.2%

Trafford 50 / 37 / UP 13 Testing positive 7.0 %

Rochdale 37 / 29 / UP 8 Testing positive 9.6%

Salford 36 / 36 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.0%

Manchester 35 / 42 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 9.6%

Oldham 30 / 39 DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.8%

Tameside 24 / 27 DOWN 3 Testing positive 8.1%

Wigan 24 / 22 / UP 2 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 23 / 24 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.1%

Stockport 21 / 26 / DOWN 5 Testing positive 7.2%


Bolton and Trafford way up ahead now.
 
west didsblue said:
I honestly don’t know how people can come to their own conclusions when the experts haven’t yet.
Click to expand...
It is not as efficient as Pfizer/Moderna in preventing transmission and each transmission is an opportunity for evolution and immune escape. There is a broad consensus on this. Of course for the time being it is not PC to talk about it for obvious reasons.

If AZ is the only option take it. But I think the government failed us once again by failing to provide mRNA based vaccines.
 
PoorTom said:
It is not as efficient as Pfizer/Moderna in preventing transmission and each transmission is an opportunity for evolution and immune escape. There is a broad consensus on this. Of course for the time being it is not PC to talk about it for obvious reasons.

If AZ is the only option take it. But I think the government failed us once again by failing to provide mRNA based vaccines.
Click to expand...

Not sure why you think this.

Research I'm aware of shows the opposite: no difference in effect in onward transmission.

There was no evidence that these benefits varied between Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines (P>0.9).

From Oxford/ONS

Impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 cases in the community: a population-based study using the UK’s COVID-19 Infection Survey

Objectives To assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The UK population-representative longitudinal COVID-19 Infection Survey. Participants 373,402 participants aged ≥16 years contributing...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
 
PoorTom said:
the government failed us once again by failing to provide mRNA based vaccines.
Click to expand...

I'm amongst the most critical of this govt who have repeatedly made the same catastrophic mistakes that were obvious at the time.

But on vaccines, they made early decisions to source a range of different vaccines in advance of knowing which would be effective at all.

If they'd bet the house on RNA vaccines we'd likely be behind where we are now and would have carried the risk of no vaccines at all.
 
Case wise - India is showing some early signs perhaps of a levelling off. It's really early to confirm that though and other factors may be at play but looking at the 3 day average is slightly down and the 7 day is on a flatter trajectory than it has been, so here's hoping. Sadly as we know the cost of human lives will continue to rise and the case numbers, even if slightly levelling off, are still doing so at a ridiculously high number.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Case wise - India is showing some early signs perhaps of a levelling off. It's really early to confirm that though and other factors may be at play but looking at the 3 day average is slightly down and the 7 day is on a flatter trajectory than it has been, so here's hoping. Sadly as we know the cost of human lives will continue to rise and the case numbers, even if slightly levelling off, are still doing so at a ridiculously high number.
Click to expand...

Hopefully.

I saw a report giving positivity as high as 90%(!) which could suggest that case numbers are limited by test availability.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Sachs Lord loses High Court case but hospitality will be open, widely, in less than a fortnight anyway
Click to expand...

It was for that reason that I thought it was a bit pointless him pursuing this so much, but I think it became a matter of principle in the end. I felt that outside of the full lockdowns (where they obviously had to close anyway) the hospitality sector was unfairly targeted when that industry was doing as much as possible to ensure a safer environment for their customers, whereas the likes of supermarkets were getting away with allowing standards to slip because they're classed as essential.
 
M18CTID said:
It was for that reason that I thought it was a bit pointless him pursuing this so much, but I think it became a matter of principle in the end. I felt that outside of the full lockdowns (where they obviously had to close anyway) the hospitality sector was unfairly targeted when that industry was doing as much as possible to ensure a safer environment for their customers, whereas the likes of supermarkets were getting away with allowing standards to slip because they're classed as essential.
Click to expand...
Agreed mate. The boozers i went in over last summer were really strict with the rules and cleanliness. There were probably very few places that you'd be less likely to catch anything.
 
M18CTID said:
It was for that reason that I thought it was a bit pointless him pursuing this so much, but I think it became a matter of principle in the end. I felt that outside of the full lockdowns (where they obviously had to close anyway) the hospitality sector was unfairly targeted when that industry was doing as much as possible to ensure a safer environment for their customers, whereas the likes of supermarkets were getting away with allowing standards to slip because they're classed as essential.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree that Sachs Lord felt the hospitality sector had been treated unfairly and I tend to agree.
 
Last edited:
Manchester33 said:
Very very interesting!

Perhaps we had a spike in Europe in 2019 prior to the major spike in March/April 2020?
Click to expand...
I stayed in Milan for the Atalanta game and also spent some time in Bergamo. A couple of weeks or so after I got home my wife was as poorly as I’ve ever seen her and the doctors didn’t know what it was. From her symptoms I’m pretty sure it was Covid
 
Wales data:

NB THIS IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DATA REPORTED AS USUAL EVERY MONDAY. SO FOR TWO DAYS. TOMORROW WILL PRESUMABLY ALSO BE TWO DAYS JUST THIS WEEK AND SO COVER MONDAY PLUS TODAY.

Last weeks numbers are for the same 48 hour period.


1 death - was 2 last week

65 cases - was 97 last week

0.4% positivity - was 0.5% last week
 
Mike Brock said:
I stayed in Milan for the Atalanta game and also spent some time in Bergamo. A couple of weeks or so after I got home my wife was as poorly as I’ve ever seen her and the doctors didn’t know what it was. From her symptoms I’m pretty sure it was Covid
Click to expand...
Well going off that video, roughly 10% of the population in Italy had antibodies. The number of people with active, spreadable COVID would have been a bit lower, but it's likely you were exposed to it on your trip.

I've been fortunate enough that I haven't had it (or asymptomatic if I did) but I have family members who were very ill with the flu around December/Christmas 2019 and we're convinced it must have been COVID in hindsight.

The thing that's strange is that those types of figures surely would have lead to overwhelming hospital admissions in Italy in autumn 2019 - I'm not sure if that was the case or not?
 
Btw the person who works on the Gov UK website publishing data has been explaining how his bank holiday was ruined yesterday and why it was hours late appearing.

He cited the way Wales had created confusion by changing the data and not releasing clear consistent information as one of several problems they had to clarify before reporting.

Today Wales are more specific about what today's data shows - which they had not been over the weekend. We were left guessing. So was Gov UK it appears.

Though there were other things going on that were the main issue it seems.

Here is what he posted - as I am not sure I fully understand what the problem was but he means they had issues over England death numbers too. Best I quote him directly:-

QUOTE

We identified an inconsistency during QA. Took a while to find the problem (England deaths), report + consult w/ source & decide on action. Then remove 2mil deaths figures & reload from yesterday. Not how I was planning to spend my bank holiday Monday.
 
The Zoe data today is a little concerning for Greater Manchester.

UK Cases up 15 on yesterday to 874

Symptomatic cases down 288 on yesterday to 14, 945 today. New low since Zoe started.

The GM numbers though are starting to slightly worry that our politicians have missed what has occurred in Chorley which then spread cases to Bolton and created a big problem there and - just as happened last July - this is starting to leak into surrounding boroughs. As I noted last night possibly distracted by the elections.

Last year missing the Bolton spike in late July put GM into a lockdown spiral for longer than any other part of the UK.

Zoe numbers today show a fall - happily in both Chorley and Bolton.

Data here is local cases / rate per million

Chorley was 335 / 2893 and is now 298 / 2571

Bolton was 485 / 1712 and is now 475 / 1677


But other areas in GM are going UP from a much lower base.

Bury from 27 / 141 to 29 / 156

Manchester from 88 / 162 big to 184 / 338

Oldham from 19 / 83 to 20 / 86

Rochdale from 29 / 133 to 33 / 151

Salford from 28 / 109 to 33 / 129

Stockport from 41 / 142 to 43 / 150

Tameside from 22 / 99 - big rise to 32 / 142

Wigan from 29 / 90 to 34 / 106


But Trafford (like Bolton and the second most infected in GM) also reverses the upward climb of the 'non high' boroughs and falls big -

from 172 / 736 to 67 / 285

I am not an expert in interpreting this data but it looks a bit of a warning sign to me that may be getting missed - especially given what occurred last July/August.

Because of how Zoe works it can be a day or two ahead of the trends in the Gov UK case data.

Guess we will see but the silence out there on Bolton is puzzling.
 
Last edited:
England hospital deaths 7 with 2 from North West.

Only 4 of these were in the past 2 months and so will likely count. Two are catch up from January. The other February.


Last week it was 26 with 4 from North West

These will be lower than usual on a Tuesday due to the Bank Holiday yesterday making registration difficult.

Tomorrow will almost certainly be up to reflect that.

The two from the NW were 1 each from Liverpool and Warrington.

The other 5 were ALL from the Midlands and in Leicester. Probably an end of month catch up

Two of the seven were under 40. Same as the number over 80.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top