Coronavirus (2021) thread

shemnel

Well-Known Member
Joined
21 Dec 2013
Messages
5,169
Wales data

Further proof that if you vaccinate your people you all but end the pandemic in your nation,

Wales has the biggest number vaccinated in the British Isles and its numbers keep tumbling.

0 deaths - was 0 last week

22 cases - was 54 last week - lowest in UK since Summer last year.

0.4% positivity - was 1.0% last week


As was posted above Bolton needs to speed up vaccinations ASAP and reach the reluctant that seems to be a key reason they are not doing as well as other places.

I think i (slightly) disagree with your conclusion - Wales has no more 2nd vaccinations (%) and only ~10% more first doses (77 vs 67) than other countries, is this enough to cause the disparity in positivity that you say?

could it be that they have a much lower testing rate per million? or perhaps the dwindling pool of unvaccinated people there is far smaller than England's, as a %age, and therefore the virus has smaller contiguous areas of unvaccinated people? im unsure.

if you're right, should we see precisely the same downward trajectory in England as has been experienced in Wales? or are there too many confounding variables at play? (such as variants, demographics etc). Just a thought.
 

johnnymarrsbarres

Well-Known Member
Joined
6 Feb 2010
Messages
346
Location
Manchester
Bit highlighted:

My local health area in GM in February had a volunteer service to get the over 60s to their jab - a rota of drivers who drove them there and back for free. Must be happening elsewhere too.

As Andy Burnham says we need to speed up delivery and persuade the reluctant in places like Bolton.

And I am starting to rethink my views on people who decline to be vaccinated being allowed the same freedoms post lockdown as those who have had it.

I do not think we can do that now that we know what variants can do. Say no by all means but if it limits what you can do until everyone is safe then that is your choice to make too.

Do not make it compulsory It should be a choice. But there probably do need to be limitations on what you can do if you choose no.
This is pretty much what I'm getting at - I just phrased it as a bit of a rant I suppose, out of worry/frustration.

Anyway on a lighter note, this made me literally spit out my brew laughing: https://www.vice.com/en/article/88n...kingto-protect-themselves-from-the-vaccinated
 

roubaixtuesday

Well-Known Member
Joined
14 Dec 2019
Messages
1,935
Team supported
City
only ~10% more first doses (77 vs 67) than other countries, is this enough to cause the disparity in positivity that you say?

It could easily be.

77 vs 67 doesn't sound much (ratio of 1.15), but a reduction in R number of the same amount would make a big difference.

Actually, though it makes much more difference than that because it's the unvaccinated ratio than matters. Wales only has 23% unvaccinated vs England 33%. That's a whopping 1.43x more in England.

Currently in England the overall R number must be close to 1 (cases static).

In Wales, all other things being equal, you'd expect it to be 0.7.

Couunter-intuitively, vaccinating people now makes far more difference per person to transmission than it did at the start of vaccination.

[doesn't account for children, but you get the gist]
 

shemnel

Well-Known Member
Joined
21 Dec 2013
Messages
5,169
It could easily be.

77 vs 67 doesn't sound much (ratio of 1.15), but a reduction in R number of the same amount would make a big difference.

Actually, though it makes much more difference than that because it's the unvaccinated ratio than matters. Wales only has 23% unvaccinated vs England 33%. That's a whopping 1.43x more in England.

Currently in England the overall R number must be close to 1 (cases static).

In Wales, all other things being equal, you'd expect it to be 0.7.

Couunter-intuitively, vaccinating people now makes far more difference per person to transmission than it did at the start of vaccination.

[doesn't account for children, but you get the gist]

i get where you're coming from, but can your assessment be applied to;

- different total population size (56m vs 4m) (is an R equally effected by 25% of 10,000 people and 25% of 10,000,000 people?)
- different prevalence of different strains

plus the fact the testing regime (i.e. who is testing), or rate per 1000, is not the same

surely this conclusion can only be made from similar starting points? is england following the exact same trajectory as Wales did at the same point? I dunno maybe you can make this assumption, but i would think there are too many other variables.

any way all of these arguments only ever point to the same conclusion; keep vaccinating!!!
 

roubaixtuesday

Well-Known Member
Joined
14 Dec 2019
Messages
1,935
Team supported
City
i get where you're coming from, but can your assessment be applied to;

- different total population size (56m vs 4m) (is an R equally effected by 25% of 10,000 people and 25% of 10,000,000 people?)
- different prevalence of different strains

plus the fact the testing regime (i.e. who is testing), or rate per 1000, is not the same

surely this conclusion can only be made from similar starting points? is england following the exact same trajectory as Wales did at the same point? I dunno maybe you can make this assumption, but i would think there are too many other variables.

any way all of these arguments only ever point to the same conclusion; keep vaccinating!!!

Completely agree - note "all other things being equal"!

IMO the Wales data is consistent with their vaccination programme making the difference, but certainly doesn't prove that is has.
 

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
11,041
I think i (slightly) disagree with your conclusion - Wales has no more 2nd vaccinations (%) and only ~10% more first doses (77 vs 67) than other countries, is this enough to cause the disparity in positivity that you say?

could it be that they have a much lower testing rate per million? or perhaps the dwindling pool of unvaccinated people there is far smaller than England's, as a %age, and therefore the virus has smaller contiguous areas of unvaccinated people? im unsure.

if you're right, should we see precisely the same downward trajectory in England as has been experienced in Wales? or are there too many confounding variables at play? (such as variants, demographics etc). Just a thought.
Yes, I know the difference is in first does only. I posted a table of the four nation percentages a couple of day ago and I agree with you that this is important.

But the fall in cases there has been very marked - given - for instance - Northern Ireland - has more cases daily despite a lower population.

And the hospital data seems to be saying that Wales is not struggling versus everyone else here either. The number are possibly the best in the UK too.

Here are the Populations with the number of patients and ventilator icu patients in the four nations as of now.

Nation / Approx adult Population / Patients in hospital with Covid / Ventilator beds

England 47 million / 921 / 126

N Ireland 1,6 million / 56 / 3

Scotland 4.6 million / 70 / 6

Wales 2.7 million / 49 / 4


So I am not judging just on having given more vaccination first doses than others and case numbers. All round Wales is performing very well indeed.

May or may not be true and I certainly trust to your judgement and experience over my uneducated sense of success.

I think Bolton - let alone Wales - would love to see 22 cases today,

Although I also understand at such low numbers statistics can easily mislead. And there is not a huge difference really between all the nations - unsurprising as even in vaccinations the numbers are not far apart.
 
Last edited:

shemnel

Well-Known Member
Joined
21 Dec 2013
Messages
5,169
Yes, I know the difference is in first does only. I posted a table of the four nation percentages a couple of day ago and I agree with you that this is important.

But the fall in cases there has been very marked - given - for instance - Northern Ireland - has more cases daily despite a lower population.

And the hospital data seems to be saying that Wales is not struggling versus everyone else here either. The number are possibly the best in the UK too.

Here are the Populations with the number of patients and ventilator icu patients in the four nations as of now.

Nation / Approx adult Population / Patients in hospital with Covid / Ventilator beds

England 47 million / 921 / 126

N Ireland 1,6 million / 56 / 3

Scotland 4.6 million / 70 / 6

Wales 2.7 million / 49 / 4


So I am not judging just on having given more vaccination first doses than others and case numbers. All round Wales is performing very well indeed.

May or may not be true and I certainly trust to your judgement and experience over my uneducated sense of success.

I think Bolton - let alone Wales - would love to see 22 cases today,

we're living slightly in guesswork land here, and i think the bottom line is getting everyone jabbed up really. So in that sense we are all just playing semantics and pulling towards the same goal.

(just as an aside - your table there shows 19.6 people per mill in hospital in England, 18.2 in Wales and 15.2 in Scotland, so doesnt really back up your point, but it really is semantics, we dont know the original condition of those going in etc, things are just too variable)

Hospitalisation of Indian variant is data trend #1 now, i reckon
 

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
11,041
Completely agree - note "all other things being equal"!

IMO the Wales data is consistent with their vaccination programme making the difference, but certainly doesn't prove that is has.
Yes I think that is a far better way of putting it. Suggestive or consistent with but not necessarily probative I agree.

I likely get carried away with wanting it to be true. Which science cannot do, of course.
 

Don't have an account?

Register now!
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.