This is pretty much what I'm getting at - I just phrased it as a bit of a rant I suppose, out of worry/frustration.Bit highlighted:
My local health area in GM in February had a volunteer service to get the over 60s to their jab - a rota of drivers who drove them there and back for free. Must be happening elsewhere too.
As Andy Burnham says we need to speed up delivery and persuade the reluctant in places like Bolton.
And I am starting to rethink my views on people who decline to be vaccinated being allowed the same freedoms post lockdown as those who have had it.
I do not think we can do that now that we know what variants can do. Say no by all means but if it limits what you can do until everyone is safe then that is your choice to make too.
Do not make it compulsory It should be a choice. But there probably do need to be limitations on what you can do if you choose no.
only ~10% more first doses (77 vs 67) than other countries, is this enough to cause the disparity in positivity that you say?
It could easily be.
77 vs 67 doesn't sound much (ratio of 1.15), but a reduction in R number of the same amount would make a big difference.
Actually, though it makes much more difference than that because it's the unvaccinated ratio than matters. Wales only has 23% unvaccinated vs England 33%. That's a whopping 1.43x more in England.
Currently in England the overall R number must be close to 1 (cases static).
In Wales, all other things being equal, you'd expect it to be 0.7.
Couunter-intuitively, vaccinating people now makes far more difference per person to transmission than it did at the start of vaccination.
[doesn't account for children, but you get the gist]
i get where you're coming from, but can your assessment be applied to;
- different total population size (56m vs 4m) (is an R equally effected by 25% of 10,000 people and 25% of 10,000,000 people?)
- different prevalence of different strains
plus the fact the testing regime (i.e. who is testing), or rate per 1000, is not the same
surely this conclusion can only be made from similar starting points? is england following the exact same trajectory as Wales did at the same point? I dunno maybe you can make this assumption, but i would think there are too many other variables.
any way all of these arguments only ever point to the same conclusion; keep vaccinating!!!
Yes, I know the difference is in first does only. I posted a table of the four nation percentages a couple of day ago and I agree with you that this is important.I think i (slightly) disagree with your conclusion - Wales has no more 2nd vaccinations (%) and only ~10% more first doses (77 vs 67) than other countries, is this enough to cause the disparity in positivity that you say?
could it be that they have a much lower testing rate per million? or perhaps the dwindling pool of unvaccinated people there is far smaller than England's, as a %age, and therefore the virus has smaller contiguous areas of unvaccinated people? im unsure.
if you're right, should we see precisely the same downward trajectory in England as has been experienced in Wales? or are there too many confounding variables at play? (such as variants, demographics etc). Just a thought.
Yes, I know the difference is in first does only. I posted a table of the four nation percentages a couple of day ago and I agree with you that this is important.
But the fall in cases there has been very marked - given - for instance - Northern Ireland - has more cases daily despite a lower population.
And the hospital data seems to be saying that Wales is not struggling versus everyone else here either. The number are possibly the best in the UK too.
Here are the Populations with the number of patients and ventilator icu patients in the four nations as of now.
Nation / Approx adult Population / Patients in hospital with Covid / Ventilator beds
England 47 million / 921 / 126
N Ireland 1,6 million / 56 / 3
Scotland 4.6 million / 70 / 6
Wales 2.7 million / 49 / 4
So I am not judging just on having given more vaccination first doses than others and case numbers. All round Wales is performing very well indeed.
May or may not be true and I certainly trust to your judgement and experience over my uneducated sense of success.
I think Bolton - let alone Wales - would love to see 22 cases today,
Yes I think that is a far better way of putting it. Suggestive or consistent with but not necessarily probative I agree.Completely agree - note "all other things being equal"!
IMO the Wales data is consistent with their vaccination programme making the difference, but certainly doesn't prove that is has.
The house next door to me is divided into bedsits . The lad on the other side of our bedroom wall worked in putting on events at Manchester Academy, the University and festivals. Self employed. We’ve spoken a few times in the garden about how hard he’s finding it. But recently I’ve noticed the noise of the tv through the wall 24/7 and the smell of weed that’s so strong I can’t sleep. He doesn’t seem to leave the house now. He must really be struggling.Yeah you're probably right, am just at the end of my tether now, and I couldn't cope mentally with another lockdown. My mental health has been fucked over the last year. Added to the fact my job was at risk as well all last summer (I work in the events sector) and we've been told we're at the end of it all...