Coronavirus (2021) thread

[artfuldodger]

Would imagine the final restrictions won’t lifted on schedule but really can’t see us ever going back into lockdowns we’ve previously had

I can see there being some sort of compromise. I can’t see everything back to normal with no restrictions on that date. But there’s a massive difference between 100s of sweaty kids in a mosh pit, and an outdoor event being allowed to operate at full capacity.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Would imagine the final restrictions won’t lifted on schedule but really can’t see us ever going back into lockdowns we’ve previously had

I think a compromise / bit of a delay out of caution will be fine by most people..

I've said all along I really want to be back watching City in a full rocking Etihad (with a vaccine passport if needs be) by the end of August..if that happens I'm not arsed if we have to move the 'full unlocking' a month or two.

 

[BlueAnorak]

How have they got there forecasts and modelling wrong?

They were not based on a VOC (Variant of Concern) escaping- through step 4 of their plan MAY apply to case numbers.
Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[PragueBlue]

257 cases here yesterday. I know it was a Sunday but the lowest we've had since last Summer and after the high numbers (17,000) of a few weeks ago, it's good to see it so low.

My main fear is that the relaxation of measures (from today) will cause it to spike again. I would have held things back another month and by then we could have at least 50% of the population vaccinated.

 

[shemnel]

The Indian variant has only taken hold in Bolton in the last week or so, if a spike happens it will start soon.

All eyes will be on Bolton for the next 2/3 weeks thats for sure.

i think the cases have been unusual there for about 14/16 days now, so i think hospitalisation should be occurring (if it is going to)

Have we seen any spike in hospitalisation, given that the Indian variant has been about and spreading for a while?

I thought hospital admissions had also plateaued below 100 a day.

the trust by trust data (not NW data) is lagging a little but i'll keep my eye out

 

[grunge]

They were not based on a VOC (Variant of Concern) escaping- through step 4 of their plan applies to case numbers.
Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

How could Sage over the last year or so modelled for a variant that didn't exist?

 

[Healdplace]

1979 cases and 5 all settings deaths

Was 2357 last Monday.

From 1, 073, 594 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Was just 447K yesterday and 661 K Saturday

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton up to 153 cases - up 8 on yesterday and 64 on last Monday.

Second highest number yet.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

How many hospitalizations and deaths will result is highly uncertain still.

All of this continues to highlight the chasm between expectations of modelling and reality.

There seems to be an (entirely erroneous) that models give a single point prediction of the future, and if that is out, then the model was "wrong".

Actually what is attempted is to give scenarios which cover possible futures to inform what might happen, and how different policy options might affect it.

Eg Indian variant - given the data we have modeling shows it's possible that this could cause a huge spike, do almost nothing or all points in between. So policy makers have to make a choice: do they take the risk, and how much mitigation (surge testing, local vaccination, caution to public etc) do they put in place.

With the original first wave it was much more black and white: either lock down or face 100s of thousands of deaths in short order.

None of this is "right" or "wrong".

 

[roubaixtuesday]

1979 cases and 5 all settings deaths

Was 2357 last Monday.

From 1, 073, 594 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Was just 447K yesterday and 661 K Saturday

Actually, I think this is even better than it appears.

Noting the sequencing data above that showed that ~50% of all UK COVID was India variant as long ago as 9th May, if overall cases are still not rising rapidly, then variant cases are also unlikely to be rising rapidly.

Still seems to me that we don't know enough to be remotely sure of India variant impact. Likelihood of a huge impact I think low; but potential consequences so high that caution is merited.