Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

North West the highest region by the biggest gap in 2021 now.

Up 51 today to 432.

Greater Manchester is up 37 of those 51 and Bolton only 8 of them.

Manchester up 9 but still 114 behind Bolton!

Everyone else up or down only slightly.

No sign of the High Peak impact on Tameside and Stockport as yet. Both in single figures today. Tameside on just 2!

Trafford though were up in the low 20s and Salford up a bit week to week too.

Bury also well up week to week again and struggling a bit.

Yorkshire FELL for the fourth straight day and is on 239 - a whopping 193 behind the North West.

Very much the NW is now the UK epicentre and further ahead than since last Autumn when much of the NW went into lockdown.

 

[Healdplace]

The good news is I guess that Bolton is not obviously escalating right now.

It did very sharply and is obviously way up but not (yet!) climbing further.

Here are its last four weeks numbers:

25 - 21 - 15 - 14 - 21 - 19 - 26

35 - 26 - 25 - 29 - 32 - 41 - 45

44 - 57 - 61 - 75 - 68 - 91 - 89

116 - 124 - 189 - 135 - 79 - 145 - 153

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Actually, I think this is even better than it appears.

Noting the sequencing data above that showed that ~50% of all UK COVID was India variant as long ago as 9th May, if overall cases are still not rising rapidly, then variant cases are also unlikely to be rising rapidly.

Still seems to me that we don't know enough to be remotely sure of India variant impact. Likelihood of a huge impact I think low; but potential consequences so high that caution is merited.

Doesn’t it also mean that if the Indian variant is becoming dominant and increasing as a % of total cases, but total cases remaining generally flat, that it could simply be that those who have caught the indian variant in all probability would gave caught coronavirus regardless of what ‘brand’ it was. There was a lot of talk of religious festivals + unvaccinated population + younger people mixing possibly leading to local spikes?

We’ve all been expecting upticks in cases for weeks now but they’ve not appeared to any significant levels and the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The good news is I guess that Bolton is not obviously escalating right now.

It did very sharply and is obviously way up but not (yet!) climbing further.

Here are its last four weeks numbers:

25 - 21 - 15 - 14 - 21 - 19 - 26

35 - 26 - 25 - 29 - 32 - 41 - 45

44 - 57 - 61 - 75 - 68 - 91 - 89

116 - 124 - 189 - 135 - 79 - 145 - 153

Visualisation & commentary from maths prof here

Kicker: "we don't have enough data to draw useful conclusions, you can go mad staring at a few points"

 

[twosips]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

 

[Healdplace]

In Stockport in May so far just 8 out of 162 cases came from people aged over 60. That is about 5%.

It looks pretty similar everywhere. The N Irish data has been like this for while.

In Bolton it is only slightly up to 6% - at 65 out of 1064.

 

[splinter]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

Science scientists we salute you

 

[Marvin]

Doesn’t it also mean that if the Indian variant is becoming dominant and increasing as a % of total cases, but total cases remaining generally flat, that it could simply be that those who have caught the indian variant in all probability would gave caught coronavirus regardless of what ‘brand’ it was. There was a lot of talk of religious festivals + unvaccinated population + younger people mixing possibly leading to local spikes?

We’ve all been expecting upticks in cases for weeks now but they’ve not appeared to any significant levels and the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

How does the variant replace another unless it is has an advantage? One explanation could simply be that infected travellers arrive back to densely populated multi-generational households. Since day 1, immigrant populations have borne the brunt of Covid-19 partly because of their housing, see Leicester and Blackburn.

There will probably be more than one effect at play.

 

[03 March 2002]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

Took them long enough, called it from the start:

COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Worldwide the serious / critical condition rate is reducing and is the death rate of closed cases. Positive signs. Countries that have good contract tracing and quarantine programs have already got on top of the pandemic but many have had to do so at the expense of overseas travellers and the...

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

COVID-19 — Coronavirus

And today's death total for UK is 478. HIghest since early May. Last week the total was 406 - so the rise is under 20% week to week - which is encouraging. That 406 became an all settings total of 492 when England out of hospital cases were added. It will be almost certainly a second wave...

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

Great news.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

Absolutely.

Except, of course, if it's replacing the local brand, it must also be more transmissible than the local brand (otherwise why would it replace it).

The gazillion dollar question is how much more transmissible, and how much is just caused by import of lots of cases from India seeding outbreaks in communities which are vulnerable for the reasons you state.

Nobody knows - though that doesn't seem to stop loudmouths having strong opinions...