Bloody hell this weather isn’t helping things!
HorrendousBloody hell this weather isn’t helping things!
The incorrect tier system throughout November and December was the criminal failure.I think many people would have just done xmas whether it was allowed or not.
It’s fucking grim, but probably helping to a certain degree as it certainly makes you want to stay indoors.Bloody hell this weather isn’t helping things!
Never is a long time so that's a bollocks statement to be fairThat's not acceptable really, we're never getting our freedoms back at this point.
I thought the point being made was about the household-mixing rule being partly relaxed on Christmas Day? Not about shopping or leisure tripsBut they couldn't have gone to restaurants (tier 2) or shopping (tier 3) and it would have made many people avoid the xmas mixing too.
It would have made a big difference - look where cases are surging now.
[Meant as a reply to the previous - obviously makes no sense inb this reply, sorry!]
So basically schools going back in March, but little else?Thats the expectation, potentially more too. In terms of the current situation, the briefing I got was that the expectations is back to tiers fully likely to be in march (but everyone being in the higher tiers). Back to relative normality is around June.
Best one I've heard is that a bloke at work was telling people his 80-odd year old mum was due to have her first jab before Christmas but cancelled it because he was taking her to some garden centre near Poulton-le-Fylde for the day! Firstly, she's an idiot for getting her priorities wrong, and he's an idiot for not attempting to talk her out of cancelling her vaccine appointment. Apparently, her new appointment is now at the end of this month but he's going to look beyond stupid if she catches it in the meantime, and that possibility could be higher than the norm because he's been in and out of way more shops than necessary most weekends and also broke quarantine rules when he went round to see his mum a few months back at a time when he should've been self-isolating after returning from Tenerife FFS!Nothing going to waste but it's a headache all the same.
It's difficult to apportion blame as we don't know the individuals circumstances. It's going to be increasingly difficult to play catch-up with those that miss appointments, I'd imagine.
Summer this year?Im struggling to see an end to this. The new variants seem to be ripping through the country and i dont see any light til at least summer where as i always hung my hat on easter.
Yesterday’s Times reported pubs could be shut until May.So basically schools going back in March, but little else?
I can see us returning nearer to "normal" somewhat sooner. I believe something like 80% of the people currently in intensive care with COVID fall within the category of those scheduled to be vaccinated by mid Feb. Let's say end of Feb.
And here's the key point: Although a single jab may only be 70% effective against you falling ill, it's nearly 100% effective against in terms of preventing you from falling seriously ill and subsequently dying.
So perhaps by mid to end of March, we can expect the load on ICU's to have fallen dramatically. Perhaps by as much as 80%. And of course that doesn't start in the middle of March, it will start to fall 3 or 4 weeks after we started the vaccinations.
Once we have plenty of NHS capacity again (and the chances of individuals dying has dropped very significantly because all of the very vulnerable have been vaccinated) then I am sure the government will want to relax as many restrictions as possible, just as soon as it can.
Summer this year?
No chance there will be any normality by then.
The average age in ICU is about 60. ICU load won't drop by more than ~30% at most I would guess with the 70+ categories being vaccinated.
The death toll may well drop by 80% by mid March - I posted some modelling of that upthread. *If* we make the mistake of relaxing quickly as the death toll drops then there is the real possibility, likelihood even, of a surge of virus transmission through the young and middle aged. That would result in a mass disabling of the working population, and probably overwhelm ICUs all over again. Remember the virus can double every 3-4 days without any restrictions.
It's vital that we drive cases down and keep them down as we complete the vaccination programme for all age groups. We did this last year (July cases were <1000 daily) and we can do it again this year when it will be easier (less people susceptible due to vaccination and we know more about transmission).
"Vaccinate the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest" is not a sensible strategy.
Although a single jab may only be 70% effective against you falling ill, it's nearly 100% effective against in terms of preventing you from falling seriously ill and subsequently dying.
it has allready ripped through the rest. 40 percent of Manchester have had it. Throw in the vaccination and the r rate has to be much lower as there will be far fewer people to get it.