Coronavirus (2021) thread

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artfuldodger said:
So basically schools going back in March, but little else?
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I think schools back in March is a best case scenario - if the vaccination programme runs to plan, most people opt to take it, and vaccine efficacy in the real world is as good as it was in the trials.

To be hoped for, but not relied upon.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Allowing the remaining 60% to catch it in a short number of weeks would be unwise in the extreme. For the reasons posted.

Yes, the R rate will reduce, but given the rate of increase seen recently, we can be sure it will be >>1 with just 70+ people vaccinated.
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it won’t be 60 percent. It will be 40 percent had it. 20 percent vaccinated by mid Feb and 40 percent left to get it which won’t happen as the r rate at that point will be under 1??
 
worsleyweb said:
it won’t be 60 percent. It will be 40 percent had it. 20 percent vaccinated by mid Feb and 40 percent left to get it which won’t happen as the r rate at that point will be under 1??
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Very little chance of R<1 at that point.

Manchester isn't the whole country.

But if R<1, cases will reduce to a very low level even if restrictions are lifted.

So the strategy we should follow is the same either way: don't lift restrictions until cases are low. If you're right, that will happen naturally. If not, restrictions should stay until cases are low.
 
Healdplace said:
After the good news of the vaccine numbers on a more sobering note to end the day. And to warn we are not coming out of this yet.

On January 12 (yesterday) - 126 deaths were recorded ON that day within the first 24 hours and reported today.

That is the highest number for the actual day before it is reported in 9 months.

It is actually higher than the number recorded on the day back in early April that recorded the highest England hospital death numbers at the peak of that wave.

Jan 11 was the first where over 100 on the day before reporting were added since 24 April which occurred as that first wave quickly subsided and we have never seen since. Until the last two days.

And the numbers for every day after day 1 have also been going up alarmingly fast since Christmas.

Scientists do not think this wave will subside as fast this time as the one did in April because it is winter and the n it was Spring and we may also not even yet be at the peak of this wave.

Here are the numbers since Christmas Eve showing the Covid deaths reported IN ENGLAND HOSPITALS ONLY for day 1 - just 24 hours after the death - and the numbers added on to each date on the second day.

The last number is the current total who died in England hospitals on that day as of now - as more and more keep getting added to every day now even weeks later as there are so many.

DAY OF DEATH // REPORTED 24 hrs LATER// ADDED DAY 2 // TOTAL AS OF TODAY

24 DEC // 60 // 80 // NOW 344

25 DEC // 34 // 114 // NOW 408

26 DEC // 36 // 143 // NOW 434

27 DEC // 42 // 165 // NOW 432

28 DEC // 48 // 183 // NOW 416

29 DEC // 50 // 214 // NOW 430

30 DEC // 54 // 183 // NOW 444

31 DEC // 42 // 157 // NOW 479

01 JAN // 32 //164 // NOW 460

02 JAN // 47 // 192 // NOW 463

03 JAN // 33 // 210 // NOW 446

04 JAN // 67 // 252 // NOW 535

05 JAN // 71 // 276 // NOW 568

06 JAN // 88 // 304 // NOW 587

07 JAN // 90 // 291 // NOW 581

08 JAN // 89 // 208 // NOW 567 (after 5 days - highest 5 day total since 16 April 8 days after wave 1 peak)_

09 JAN // 39 // 255 // NOW 544 (after 4 days - highest 4 day total since 15 April 7 days after wave 1 peak)

10 JAN // 54 // 319 // NOW 544 (after 3 days - highest 3 day total since 15 April 7 days after wave 1 peak)

11 JAN // 103 // 362 // NOW 465 (after 2 days - highest 2 day total since the day OF the first wave peak 8 April)

12 JAN // 126 just day 1. And numbers still rising almost day to day as you can see.


That Merry Little Christmas Boris wanted is going to result in so much pain and heartache. Hope he reflects on these numbers. He should. As we may yet be to see the results of that 'festive' season in these numbers as the above will stem from BEFORE the huge rise in cases caused by Christmas.

Those resulting deaths are probably yet to come.
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Christmas really is a mere bagatelle compared with the new variant.
Restrictions that used to keep the R number bellow 1.0 now only keep it below 1.5.
For example, allowing a few Covidiots into supermarkets, previously allowed for in behaviours, is no longer acceptable.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is probably true, but we don't actually know yet. The trials weren't big enough to give quantitative results on severe disease or death.

From the Pfizer and Oxford/AZ phase 3 trials the results were (two doses)

Pfizer active: one severe disease
Pfizer placebo: nine severe disease

AZ active: zero severe disease
AZ placebo: ten severe disease

What does this tell us? severe disease is much less likely, but not impossible on active vaccine full dosing regime. But the numbers are small, so it would be unwise to try and quantify. Confidence limits on % protection against severe disease are not included in the trial results, probably for that reason. I'd guess a confidence interval could be as wide as 70-100% from such a result - and it of course depends on the population. In the real world our initial population vaccinated is massively skewed towards older people, and they may have a different level of protection to the average person on the trial.

There is no clear data reported on the single dose (because everyone on the trial got two), but the data on the interval between the doses shows similar results, albeit with even lower numbers. Other data on immune response suggests that we should expect similar short term efficacy on the single dose, but there is no hard data on this. That's presumably why Pfizer have declined to support the delayed second dose strategy.

There is no data reported on deaths. We should expect a reduction in mortality along with the reduction on severe disease, but this isn't absolutely certain that it's proportional - it could be (much) better or worse. In cancer, for instance, drugs often delay progression of disease but ultimately don't make any difference to ultimate time to death. It *might* be that if you are particularly susceptible to COVID you die regardless of vaccination.

None of this is intended to suggest the vaccines are ineffective, just that we should be a little cautious about *how* effective until we learn more. We should start to know over the next couple of months what the real world protection is.

Pfizer: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 (table S5)
Oxford AZ: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext (table 5)
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There has been some preliminary data coming out of Israel on the Pfizer vaccine after one dose in the last day or so as they are being used by Pfizer as a test bed due to the speed and volume of their roll out (feedback based on 200,000 people who have had the dose and same amount who have not) - the data is running on the first dose up to 14 days.

Israel's collaboration with Pfizer makes a lot more sense now as I couldn't work out how they managed to get their hands on so many vaccines seeing as they only put in their orders after the PFZ results were released on efficacy levels. Netanyahu has most probably paid a premium to jump the queue with the condition that PFZ have exclusivity in Israel which is a smart move by PFZ if Israel is first to announce herd immunity and is obviously a political play with elections coming up in March.

Major Israel study finds Pfizer vaccine cuts infection rate - Globes

Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days | The Times of Israel
 
Chippy_boy said:
What does that mean exactly? That there are as many people under 60 in ICU as over 60? I am certain that is not true, so I am puzzled as to how that stat is derived.
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It is true, and many people are surprised by it.

Median age in ICU is 60 (ish)

In intensive care, the average age of Covid patients in the second wave is 60.2 compared with 58.8 in the first wave

www.bbc.co.uk

Are Covid patients getting younger?

What does the data show about the age groups being affected by the virus in the second wave?
www.bbc.co.uk
 
AlgarveBlu said:
There has been some preliminary data coming out of Israel on the Pfizer vaccine after one dose in the last day or so as they are being used by Pfizer as a test bed due to the speed and volume of their roll out (feedback based on 200,000 people who have had the dose and same amount who have not) - the data is running on the first dose up to 14 days.

Israel's collaboration with Pfizer makes a lot more sense now as I couldn't work out how they managed to get their hands on so many vaccines seeing as they only put in their orders after the PFZ results were released on efficacy levels. Netanyahu has most probably paid a premium to jump the queue with the condition that PFZ have exclusivity in Israel which is a smart move by PFZ if Israel is first to announce herd immunity and is obviously a political play with elections coming up in March.

Major Israel study finds Pfizer vaccine cuts infection rate - Globes

Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days | The Times of Israel
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Unless I'm reading it wrong isn't that second article a bit concerning? 17% of the serious cases are ones actually already vaccinated? Or is it a case that they were only very recently vaccinated and it was too soon?
 
worsleyweb said:
it won’t be 60 percent. It will be 40 percent had it. 20 percent vaccinated by mid Feb and 40 percent left to get it which won’t happen as the r rate at that point will be under 1??
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It could be more than 40% who have had it found it not, what about all those that have been asymptomatic and haven’t been tested?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The average age in ICU is about 60. ICU load won't drop by more than ~30% at most I would guess with the 70+ categories being vaccinated.

The death toll may well drop by 80% by mid March - I posted some modelling of that upthread. *If* we make the mistake of relaxing quickly as the death toll drops then there is the real possibility, likelihood even, of a surge of virus transmission through the young and middle aged. That would result in a mass disabling of the working population, and probably overwhelm ICUs all over again. Remember the virus can double every 3-4 days without any restrictions.

It's vital that we drive cases down and keep them down as we complete the vaccination programme for all age groups. We did this last year (July cases were <1000 daily) and we can do it again this year when it will be easier (less people susceptible due to vaccination and we know more about transmission).

"Vaccinate the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest" is not a sensible strategy.
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When in your opinion will slight normality return ?
I mean pubs open (if only with a scotch egg etc) , holidays etc.

ps i know the above is literally so low down on the problems we have at the mo. Im just inquiring. Getting that in before a certain someone jumps all over it, as is his usual want
 
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