Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

So, UK cases continue to rise exponentially, as they have for several weeks now since mid-late May, with a doubling time of ~two weeks.

As @Healdplace @ayrshire_blue and others excellently highlight, there are major local differences, but at the big picture for the UK, this has been pretty consistent for a month.

In that month, roughly 10% of the population have been vaccinated (doses equivalent to ~20% of the population). That's made no discernible impact on the growth of the virus, disappointingly. Hospitalisations maybe starting to show a further drop relative to cases, which would be very good news if consistent, as vaccinations probably hit that harder than cases.

But we *do* know that the vaccines work - there's no suggestion from any of the data of anything other than high efficacy, for two doses at least. So either it's just in the noise of the data, or people's behaviour has relaxed enough to counteract the vaccine effect net over the last month.

I still think that if we can vaccinate at a high rate (500,000/day or so), we should see that exponential growth tail off. and hopeful that we'll be close to a peak by late July. We'll see.

 

[splinter]

Not far off 400,000 jabs latest figures..we're getting there

 

[M18CTID]

i don’t think having the affair is the issue per se.

he is the health secretary telling everyone not to hug their own granny’s and stay socially distance yet he is boning his aide.

same with professor lockdown stay away , don’t go out , socially distance meanwhile I will go and bang my married mistress.

it’s hypocritical. He needs to go.today.

Please joe public plebs minimise interaction and stop the spread of the virus and I will just carry on regardless.

Fair points and no real arguments with that but I was just commenting on Hancock’s character in general.

 

[TheBlueDune]

Fair points and no real arguments with that but I was just commenting on Hancock’s character in general.

Just what does he need to do to get fired?

BBC story -

In May last year, epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson resigned from the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) after it emerged he had broken lockdown rules when a woman he was reportedly in a relationship with visited his home.

At the time Mr Hancock called these actions "extraordinary", adding that social distancing rules were "there for everyone" and "deadly serious".

 

[paulchapo]

Just what does he need to do to get fired?

BBC story -

In May last year, epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson resigned from the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) after it emerged he had broken lockdown rules when a woman he was reportedly in a relationship with visited his home.

At the time Mr Hancock called these actions "extraordinary", adding that social distancing rules were "there for everyone" and "deadly serious".

I've never known a government before where ministers can do shady deals and break rules they set up with total impunity. It shows total contempt for the electorate and is a throwback to the toffs doing exactly what they want but hammering the serfs for daring to do the same. It's bloody sickening.

 

[worsleyweb]

He has grafted and I believe genuinely done his best but deserves sacking for this. Lost any credibility.

 

[paulchapo]

Why did the government delay the report on the test events that proved a huge success, with very few infections as a result?

It is this hiding, delaying and covering up of stuff that is fueling conspiracy theories. I believe these figures were only released after the entertainment industry threatened legal action.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data:

Mixed news - though mostly positive.

Admissions (2 days old recall) 214 - highest in this new wave. And NW also back up from 42 to 60 on the day.

It was 177 with 55 from the NW seven days earlier.

London, Midlands, NE & Yorkshire and South West also up across the same 7 days to Wednesday.

Today though numbers are more encouraging.

Patients up just 10 to 1284. Seven days ago it was up 48 to 1170 - making the week to week rise of 114 the fourth straight fall in the increase this week.

Ventilators also fell by 2 to 238. versis 210 last week. The lowest wk to wk gap this week.



In the North West the good news continues:- Patients down 15 to 429. The ONLY region to FALL today.

Last week it ROSE by 23 to 411. That week to week rise of just 18 is the lowest in a week or two.

Ventilators in the NW akso FELL by 2 to 87 - up from just 83 last Friday. The smallest week to week rise in the past week or two.

These are pretty encouraging given the high case numbers in the NW all week though there are signs these have plateaued.

It may be that the NW is not far off the peak of this wave regionally.



Though, of course, other regions are much further back but also have had those weeks to ramp up vaccinations to hopefully mitigate their rises.

THESE REGIONS ARE:-



East today up 6 patients to 69 and up 1 ventilator to 10 v 60 & 10 last week.

London today stayed at 286 and FELL by 5 ventilators to 62 v 289 and 55 last week

Midlands up 5 patients to 189 with ventilators staying at 40 v 168 and 24 last week.

NE & Yorkshire up 1 patient to 183 and 1 ventilator to 26 v 149 & 21 last week

South East up 6 patients to 66 and ventilators stayed at 5 v 59 and 12 last week

South West up 9 patients to 62 and 3 ventilatirs to 8 v 36 and 5 last week


Apart from South West this is generally very hopeful data and SW is such a small area even at a very high level for itself it is unlikely to go into really big numbers.

All in all there is little sign here of the risiong cases yet translating into a real problem for the NHS and good signs the NW has started to reverse its problems.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Just what does he need to do to get fired?

BBC story -

In May last year, epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson resigned from the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) after it emerged he had broken lockdown rules when a woman he was reportedly in a relationship with visited his home.

At the time Mr Hancock called these actions "extraordinary", adding that social distancing rules were "there for everyone" and "deadly serious".

His bigger crime was ignoring his officials and wasting £10bn on the wrong type of track and trace App. It now appears that there may have been a conflict of interest affecting this decision.

 

[BlueHammer85]

He has grafted and I believe genuinely done his best but deserves sacking for this. Lost any credibility.

lost any credibility without this incident.