Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

How many are they testing? The numbers don't add up as more are dying in those countries daily. There were 50 reported in Germany on 6th July and 24 in Italy. You need to start looking at the bigger picture rather than focus on any negative you possibly can.

not quite a fair comparison. with the lag effect, Germany are still on the decline from there last wave so are still seeing higher deaths from that last wave. While we peaked in Han, they peaked end of April.

 

[Del_Bosque]

UK cases 279 per 100,000
Germany & Italy in single figures.

I just don't understand what is happening in this country with this.

Give it a few weeks, Delta just seems to be starting to take hold over there

 

[grunge]

I know, every time I open the internet it's a barrage of bad news every day on this. I'm not even half excited for sunday to be honest. 16 months of covid has made my head go, not sure what to do. Sorry.

As lots of people have said. Stop watching the news.

Binge some TV, play a game, Read a book ( there are plenty of really long book series you could use a lot of time up with ), do anything other than watch the news.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Long Covid discussions.

At 50k cases a day you will expect to have roughly 1000 a day of those to be out of action for over 12 weeks.

great stuff, that's only 3% of the workforce and that's using analysis based on vaxxed and unvaxxed so it will be less than that eventually.

 

[True_Blue69]

not quite a fair comparison. with the lag effect, Germany are still on the decline from there last wave so are still seeing higher deaths from that last wave. While we peaked in Han, they peaked end of April.

The lag isn’t 2 months mate, they reported 2,253 cases on the 8th June and only 24k at the end of April. But you believe what you want clearly nothing will change your mind.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Flu is a known quantifiable risk. Covid is still an unknown risk and we do not have decades of data to quantify it.

Everything we do, short of lockdowns to suppress the spread, is a gamble. July 19th is a gamble. It may be a disaster or a giant nothing burger. We’ll know after July 19th.

See you on the other side.

Exactly right, it is a gamble, but it’s now become a gamble we have to take.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Give it a few weeks, Delta just seems to be starting to take hold over there

Again, it’s like but not like. All these other European countries, plus America too, are going to get a rude awakening.

 

[worsleyweb]

The Guardian running a scare story about how hospitals are about to be overrun, while their own graphs show hospital numbers are only a tiny tiny fraction of what they were a few months ago.

Can someone explain that?

The whole thing is a complete farce now and it seems to me the press are trying to milk every last drop of peoples fears.

The Guardian will just do anything to slate the Governemnt opening up. Simple as that.

 

[grunge]

The lag isn’t 2 months mate, they reported 2,253 cases on the 8th June and only 24k at the end of April. But you believe what you want clearly nothing will change your mind.

It can easily be 2+ months for outliers on ventilators etc. plus lag in data. UK daily updates are still including deaths that occurred weeks ago and that lag in data towards the end of the last peak was occasionally into the months.

these things take a good few months come come out in the wash.

Example. 1 UK person dying after 13 months in Intensive care. while this is an extreme case, there are outliers in ICU months later all over the world..

COVID-19: UK's longest known coronavirus patient suffering 'fainting attacks' after more than 13 months in ICU

Jason Kelk had made "huge strides" in his recovery in recent months but his condition has now worsened, his wife Sue says.

news.sky.com

More info

Biased and unbiased estimation of the average length of stay in intensive care units in the Covid-19 pandemic - Annals of Intensive Care

Background The average length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU_ALOS) is a helpful parameter summarizing critical bed occupancy. During the outbreak of a novel virus, estimating early a reliable ICU_ALOS estimate of infected patients is critical to accurately parameterize models...

annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com

In the USA, in this one study, after 38 days 64% of cases are discharged from ICU. meaning 36% are still in after 38 days!.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The Guardian running a scare story about how hospitals are about to be overrun, while their own graphs show hospital numbers are only a tiny tiny fraction of what they were a few months ago.

Can someone explain that?

The whole thing is a complete farce now and it seems to me the press are trying to milk every last drop of peoples fears.

This?

NHS hospitals forced to cancel operations again by unfolding third wave

Health service under pressure from influx of Covid patients across England as more staff self-isolate

www.theguardian.com

It's not a scare story, and it doesn't say anything about being over run.

It says hospitals are under increased pressure as a result, particularly but not only due to staff self isolating.

That's true. Do you think they should pretend it's not happening?