Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BLUEMATT23]

WHO: tells the UK its to early for massive relaxation..

It's irrelevant really - most people seem to have given up weeks ago anyway. Certainly what I am seeing.

 

[BobKowalski]

Except that's the law. Whereas all laws on this are being removed.

Speeding is another analogy - the main purpose is to protect the innocent victims of it. We don't make that "personal responsibility"

Agreed, we went from advising people to ‘clunk-click’ and in the end made it the law because while everyone agreed it was sensible, a lot were reluctant to do so, some even suggested it was dangerous to wear a seatbelt. They are today’s anti-vaxxers.

For many people being told to wear a seatbelt gave them the excuse to do something they already wanted to do, for young men it was the thought they weren’t ‘manly’ enough if they wore one.

Same with masks, people will want to wear one but will feel uncomfortable if many don‘t, so making mask wearing compulsory gives people the excuse to do something they already want to do.

All this leaving it up to people and ‘freedom day’ bollocks shite is dumb.

 

[robbieh]

A friend of mine in his early sixties had the Johnson jab. A month later got Covid and was pretty unwell for 10 day.Lost weight, didn't want to eat and totally exhausted.
Just posting this as a warning to the older members in here. Vaccination might keep you out if hospital but you can still get it.

 

[Gabriel]

So, start relaxing but do it in stages or keep some measures in place like masks on public transport. No need for an all or nothing approach.

I go out, go to shops, went to the optician yesterday, usual stuff, all I want is to know places that I visit or shop are sensible and aren't rammed full of unmasked people breathing in my face.

Taking sensible precautions has nothing to do with ‘freedom’. It’s like wearing a seatbelt or not drinking bleach. Kind of fucking obvious.

If I may, BK, when you were out and about yesterday, roughly what percentage of people were wearing face masks?

In the Netherlands, it remains mandatory on public transport, so practically full compliance, yet in public places it remains at the individual’s discretion, so I’d hazard well below 10% compliance now. And that estimate hasn’t altered since cases increased.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If the modelling community oveer egg the pudding for a 3rd time in 5 months they will be ignored in the future.
Much like the boy crying wolf.
This will be disastrous for public perception of science based methods.

WTF?

I literally just posted you the last set of modelling and that we're substantially *above* the central scenario.

You've got "over-egged" fixed in your mind and you're completely ignoring reality.

Here it is again with more details and references

The actual England data since that projection is...

date	newAdmissions
10/07/2021​	442​
09/07/2021​	451​
08/07/2021​	488​
07/07/2021​	461​
06/07/2021​	458​
05/07/2021​	416​
04/07/2021​	390​
03/07/2021​	323​
02/07/2021​	307​
01/07/2021​	295​
30/06/2021​	331​
29/06/2021​	283​

 

[Del_Bosque]

Tbh I think the fuss around masks is complete nonsense, the time when they are most effective is when they are generally taken off (face to face contact ie sat down in a pub or house) so losing them will have minimal effect

Vaccine passports and incentives for the under 30’s to take up their jabs are the way to go.

Being told you won’t be going to a meal, pub, large event, nightclub or on holiday for the next 12 months without 2 jabs would send take up through the roof.

Much better than having to force jabs on 13 year olds to hit HI

 

[BobKowalski]

It's irrelevant really - most people seem to have given up weeks ago anyway. Certainly what I am seeing.

My experience is that masks in shops largely worn, footfall is still controlled, there are measures in place and being observed that limit the spread.

Pubs and restaurants are trickier and unless I can sit outside I give them a swerve anyway. I also prefer table service, cramming at a bar was never my idea of a good time.

But it’s not irrelevant, observance of the rules may be fraying in places, but binning the rules overnight isn’t the answer. It gives no one any cover to be sensible.

 

[BobKowalski]

Tbh I think the fuss around masks is complete nonsense, the time when they are most effective is when they are generally taken off (face to face contact ie sat down in a pub or house) so losing them will have minimal effect

Vaccine passports and incentives for the under 30’s to take up their jabs are the way to go.

Being told you won’t be going to a meal, pub, large event, nightclub or on holiday for the next 12 months without 2 jabs would send take up through the roof.

Much better than having to force jabs on 13 year olds to hit HI

Disagree on masks. Shops, public transport are areas where it makes sense to keep them. Agree on vaccine passports.

 

[BlueAnorak]

WTF?

I literally just posted you the last set of modelling and that we're substantially *above* the central scenario.

You've got "over-egged" fixed in your mind and you're completely ignoring reality.

Here it is again with more details and references

The actual England data since that projection is...

date	newAdmissions
10/07/2021​	442​
09/07/2021​	451​
08/07/2021​	488​
07/07/2021​	461​
06/07/2021​	458​
05/07/2021​	416​
04/07/2021​	390​
03/07/2021​	323​
02/07/2021​	307​
01/07/2021​	295​
30/06/2021​	331​
29/06/2021​	283​

View attachment 21225

Sorry that model you like quoting is based on the last two points not the average. Hospitalisaions and cases will undershoot the models again.
Disastrous for the public perception of scientific method.
For example, Healdplace's recent numbers in the North West (ahead of the rest of the country) bare little relationship to the models.
At the moment there are also 0.71 discharges per admission - much higher than January at the same point in the infection curve.
When I have time I'll do a proper analysis of the model but that won't be for a while as I have a major IT roll out to deal with.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Sorry that model you like quoting is based on the last two points not the average

Complete bollocks. I've just given you the daily figures to go with it. Every day. Plot 'em.

And as for

Hospitalisaions and cases will undershoot the models again.

I've literally just posted you the data that shows the precise and exact opposite!