Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scotland Data

4 deaths - was 6 last week

There may be some catch up here from yesterday's Lighthouse lab data in Glasgow then under reported

2529 cases - was 2363 last week

11.5% positivity - was 11.2% last week

506 patients - up 36 on yesterday - was 346 last week - another big wk to wk increase

41 ventilated icu - up 1 on yeserday - was 32 last week

 

[Rammy Blue]

Vaccination rates are dropping sharply both here and in many European countries as the number of people willing to be vaccinated reduces. It is not a supply problem but a lack of demand.

The UK has done amazingly well to reach the high levels it has and other countries (France in particular) have got to this point far sooner and having vaccinated less of its population.

At a certain point (now in my opinion) the only realistic option is to let Covid spread through the mainly younger, less at risk groups who have the lowest take up until herd immunity is reached. I’d expect the mass vaccination sites will be closing for good fairly soon and instead it will be pop ups and smaller, local sites to try to reach more people of the younger cohort.

Exactly my thoughts too, we are at the stage with vaccination where it’s naturally slowing down.

 

[Marvin]

Apologies, I didn't intend to be dismissive. I'm sure there is useful learning in the local data, just that I have no clue what it is, or the competence to ascertain it. I also have no idea if the various modelling groups use real local data to initialise their runs, or if it's just done at a country level.

I don't like the look of that London plot.

When it hit India, it was a lovely smooth spike and it was really clear when it had peaked. No expertise was required. In the North West region (Gov.uk) there is a suggestion that rate of growth is slowing, and if you look at Manchester it has dipped recently. Hoping to see this continue obviously and then presumably the UK will follow although I agree London looks like it has quite a long way to go yet and because of the population concentration that's going to influence that national picture.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

37 with 16 from the North West - last week was 32 with 12. Wk before 20 with 4.

Numbers are undeniably rising now but not as yet by much. Though that WILL change and I fear it is now pretty certain we will reach 100 deaths in a day here in coming weeks

These are the legacy of some weeks ago when the NW was alone in England. It has stopped rising but is not really falling and all the other regions are now up close to where NW is. Their deaths are baked in unfortunately and will triple these numbers in coming week or two. As they are already starting to do to the hospital patient numbers as you saw in last night's sharp rise there in the England hospital numbers that I post. Not now the NW on its own pushing them up more and more.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS MORE DETAIL

Regions: - East 3, London 4, Midlands 5, NE & Yorkshire 7, NW 16, South East 0, South West 2

In the NW the 16 deaths were:- Bolton 2, Lancashire 1, Manchester 6, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) 4, Salford 1, Morecambe 1, Warrington 1


Age ranges:- 1 aged 20 - 39, 7 aged 40 - 59, 20 aged 60 - 79 and 9 aged 80 PLUS.

NB: Tuesday is ALWAYS a big catch up day from weekend registrations delayed so this is often the highest number in a week.


12 Jul now 2 after 1 day

11 Jul added 13 - most in one go since 12 April - to now be 14 after 2 days

10 Jul added 9 - to be 13 after 3 days

9 Jul added 10 - the most on day 3 since 7 March - to now be 21 after 4 days

8 Jul added 1 to be 22 after 5 days.

These numbers are clearly going up but not yet exponentially,


The last five totals at 5 days = 82 - last week the same 5 days = 59 - week before = 50

The two days coming up have already added another 34 to = 116 minimum for the next 7 day number at 5 days,

Last weeks this total was 96 last wk and 68 week before,

 

[MillionMilesAway]

When it hit India, it was a lovely smooth spike and it was really clear when it had peaked. No expertise was required. In the North West region (Gov.uk) there is a suggestion that rate of growth is slowing, and if you look at Manchester it has dipped recently. Hoping to see this continue obviously and then presumably the UK will follow although I agree London looks like it has quite a long way to go yet and because of the population concentration that's going to influence that national picture.

I thought I'd heard that they were predicting mid-August for the peak.

 

[Marvin]

Vaccination rates are dropping sharply both here and in many European countries as the number of people willing to be vaccinated reduces. It is not a supply problem but a lack of demand.

The UK has done amazingly well to reach the high levels it has and other countries (France in particular) have got to this point far sooner and having vaccinated less of its population.

At a certain point (now in my opinion) the only realistic option is to let Covid spread through the mainly younger, less at risk groups who have the lowest take up until herd immunity is reached. I’d expect the mass vaccination sites will be closing for good fairly soon and instead it will be pop ups and smaller, local sites to try to reach more people of the younger cohort.

Europe also slowing down in terms of vaccination rates. I think at last everyone is largely in agreement now, just a litle dispute on how quickly the controls are lifted. I don't actually understand why it makes such a big difference to hospitalisations and deaths but the models apparently suggest it does. Perhaps its because if you lift restrictions slowly you still have benefit from ongoing vaccination/infection, whereas if you do it one big bang, there's less opportunity for immunity to resist infection?

What's left for me is progress on new vaccines. I do hope that when we do the boosters we use up to date vaccinaes or we are going to get awfully tired with one vaccination after another. It's unlikely this is going to stop evolving so I think PHE would be wise to give max possible consideration to vaccinating with latest vaccines. I do accept though that they must have good reasons to do whatever they decide. As long as the whole thing is controlled by science and not the private profits of pharmaceutical companies, that's fine.

 

[Healdplace]

Unlike in England face coverings not to be ended in Scotland 'for some time'. Nicola Sturgeon just stated.

Plans modified because of Delta,

Weddings and funeral numbers modified,

But not plans to return all workers to offices etc or unlimited meetings to be allowed even outdoors.

 

[Marvin]

I thought I'd heard that they were predicting mid-August for the peak.

That sounds familiar. I was just suggesting that it could peak earlier in the North West. It's unlikely to proceed uniformly across the UK. I posted the Bolton and London cases up above somewhere and you can see quite a gap in time between the onset of the waves. I am expecting it to peak in Gtr Manchester before it peaks nationally but I haven't really got anything more to say than that. All guesswork.

 

[Tonster]

I don't get your point. respiratory season happens either way. Get more jabbed now, save lives. Flu jab will happen anyway. Opening up now will cause more deaths than not. We have a vaccine. Opening up now is simply because that dick in charge has backed himself into a corner and he is scared of bad press from a minority than saving peoples lives. The majority of the country think like this, all polls prove it but just like some of the morons on here, idiots shout loudest.

Opening up now instead of waiting for the vaccines to be fully done WILL cost people there lives, people immune compromised like me and others with co morbidities. That is a fact. Some are willing for those people to die because they don't want to wait. We aren't even really in lockdown compared to the past.

My point is and the point Chris Witty made last night is that there will be an exit wave and therefore a spike in cases (and thus hospitalisations) whenever it is done. Question is do you want that spike (along with potential large spike in flu etc at the same time) when we are heading into winter and schools are going back in a few months time or now when NHS can better cope? I’m not suggesting which is correct, just that that is the current dilemma