Coronavirus (2021) thread

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42,000 cases, 600 hospital admissions (Eng only mind), 50 deaths today.

Cases still looking like they're growing close to exponentially, doubling time ~2 weeks. Just maybe slowing a bit?

We can hope otherwise, but it's looking more likely than not with current behaviours we'd get to something like 100,000 cases, purely based on the fact there's no real slowdown in the rise yet. That might imply 3000 UK admissions, 200 deaths (admissions and deaths follow cases, so we've got bigger rises baked in there).
The January peak was 60,000 cases, 4,000 admissions, 1300 deaths.

Vaccinations slowing right down, no sign of vaccinating teens on the horizon. As posted earlier, it's now likely that infection is adding more than vaccination to immunity, so vaccination alas becomes increasingly less significant.

Removing all legal restrictions at a stroke next Monday really isn't looking very sensible - *if* it causes a big acceleration, those numbers could double.

There is hope this doesn't happen: Scotland's falling and no-one really seems to know why, perhaps earlier school hols there. Maybe we'll follow? Schools out probably a big help, still some vaccinations kicking in, people will be more cautious because of the numbers, but it's all a bit shit really. I never expected this over the summer.

Time for a week off the thread. Too depressing!
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
do you think hospital numbers in the NW may have stalled or plateaued HP?
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Hopefully plateaued as numbers more or less have.

How NW does today relative to the big jump up in cases will tell us a lot.

If the rise is mostly because of other regions than the NW it will be a good sign.

Though they will all be up,

GM has consistently been at around 42% of the NW numbers lately which is about where it should be.

NW will always be a major part of the England cases because it is a big population centre.

So there is a limit below where it will not go as a fraction of rising case numbers.

But it is a good sign that two other regions are now ahead of the NW as it shows there is a delayed link between case numbers becoming patients and is what we would expect - especially in NE & Yorkshire which as I have noted a few times is actually above the NW in case numbers and has been for a little while now,

So the bigger the gap between NW cases and cases in the rest of England the more that difference should be apparent.

But NW is not really falling yet. And that has to happen before numbers will go down in hospital. Right now like cases they are just not going up as fast as other regions.

That is a start and NW might well - really ought to be - the first out of this wave. But we are not there yet,
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
42,000 cases, 600 hospital admissions (Eng only mind), 50 deaths today.

Cases still looking like they're growing close to exponentially, doubling time ~2 weeks. Just maybe slowing a bit?

We can hope otherwise, but it's looking more likely than not with current behaviours we'd get to something like 100,000 cases, purely based on the fact there's no real slowdown in the rise yet. That might imply 3000 UK admissions, 200 deaths (admissions and deaths follow cases, so we've got bigger rises baked in there).
The January peak was 60,000 cases, 4,000 admissions, 1300 deaths.

Vaccinations slowing right down, no sign of vaccinating teens on the horizon. As posted earlier, it's now likely that infection is adding more than vaccination to immunity, so vaccination alas becomes increasingly less significant.

Removing all legal restrictions at a stroke next Monday really isn't looking very sensible - *if* it causes a big acceleration, those numbers could double.

There is hope this doesn't happen: Scotland's falling and no-one really seems to know why, perhaps earlier school hols there. Maybe we'll follow? Schools out probably a big help, still some vaccinations kicking in, people will be more cautious because of the numbers, but it's all a bit shit really. I never expected this over the summer.

Time for a week off the thread. Too depressing!
Click to expand...
I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
And another false statement.

I mean, just a modicum of checking before you post this stuff would save you the embarrassment of being wrong time after time after time.

www.fda.gov

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use in Adolescents in Another Important Action in Fight Against Pandemic

The FDA expanded the EUA for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19 to include adolescents down to 12 years of age.
www.fda.gov www.fda.gov
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That’s the first one and I was actually wrong twice as it started off over 16 not 18. But I don’t care as it’s nothing to do with my point, just you being pedantic.
 
M18CTID said:
I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next
M18CTID said:
I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next week.
Click to expand...
My money is on seeing a steep increase in 2-4 weeks after restrictions are eased.
Click to expand...
 
BlueAnorak said:
You have posted lots of tosh and have been pulled up for it, yet you continue to post more tosh.
You're clearly an antivax troll and I claim my £10 finders fee.
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Pulled up by a load of idiots on a footy forum? Nobody has pulled me on anything.

You want to take the vaccine, I’m not telling you not to, I’m happy for you to, I’ll happily be the last person to have it. I’m not interested until I think its safe, not hard to comprehend is it.
 
Mixed news for the North West on early look at the data.

Up by the most of any region. Though as the largest it would be.

Up 1272 on the day - easily the most. But to 6203. Which is actually BELOW the 6487 NW had 5 days ago. Its highest yet. Despite the UK numbers being well above that day. Which was 35, 707 - 6595 lower than today,

Greater Manchester today went up to a number well below it had on that day 5 days ago,

It was then 2717. Today it is 2483.

The split of the NW 5 days ago was 41.9% - today GM is at 40.0% - its lowest in months,

So this is actually a better day for GM than it looks and an OK day for the NW in the circumstances,

GM today up 449 of the NW 1272 day to day increase. Just 35.3% Even below the 40%

And week to week up 452 of the week to week rise of 1253. Which is 36%

So this infers GM is doing quite a bit better than the NW is doing.

But rising less as opposed to going down, That is a key thing to remember,
 
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