Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

Masks are not worn by the majority of those who are spreading it ie under 16 & the so called too vulnerable to wear them

Yep. The young are no longer prepared to knuckle down to restrictions. Only Chiese syle restrictions will do that - and that will go down like a lead balloon.
Compulsory vaccination to get into a cafe, restaurant, bar or nightclubs (as well as going abroad) may eek out additional vaccinations but that will only offend the youth.
As will 12+ child vaccination but SAGE don't yet seem convinced about that.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

LOOK AWAY NOW IF YOU LIVE IN STOCKPORT!

Stockport is going up up and away on Zoe and in past week has gone from 7592 to 12, 186

This is the highest it has been in ages and is the only GM borough Zoe shows rising this fast.

Only Manchester is now higher and that is falling (from 15, 661 to 13, 689 today.

This is a huge turnaround and Stockport looks like being the epicentre by tomorrow if the trend continues.

No idea how or why but Zoe is spot on as its case numbers have soared all week in the real numbers daily as I have been flagging up in the evening reports - going from 172 to 329 - highest yet and precisely in line with the Zoe rises.

For the most vaccinated borough in GM this is a bit of a worry - though as the data I posted last night shows - the big majority of the cases are coming from younger ages in Stockport, Many not vaccinated. Or likely to be vaccinated given the decision not to jab school ages. But I assume there must be other local factors at work though the 5 day Gov UK data will only spot this next week it has been growing on Zoe and in the GM up to date Pop scores I post here daily as they see these trends ahead of the figures the media and gov uk use.

Unfortunately this means reaction is always a week late as I have flagged up in here a few times on how these finalised figures get in the way of spotting trends early rather than help.

Stockport has slid up that table all week and its Pop score is rising faster than almost everywhere else in the NW.

Gone from 424 to 562 (highest it has ever been) in just the past 6 days.

We saw Bolton do this in April and someone should be watching this now I hope.


Oldham and Rochdale are the only two other GM boroughs not falling on Zoe but only Oldham at 10, 051 in the higher watch zone, Rochdale is on 8682 and rising.

Bury is just below Stockport now on 12, 099 but they are falling,

Even Wigan which had a huge 516 cases - just 8 below Manchester yesterday - has been falling a lot in the past few days on Zoe and gone from 16, 491 to just 5342 today.

 

[Mr Coopz]

I can’t say much but the only thought that I can share is that hopefully by October, if jabs don’t falter again we will have near enough 90 % of the adult population fully jabbed. If that can’t prevent the overwhelming of hospitals then we are well and truly fucked and I will lose all hope of things been okay. The concerns coming out of Israel is leading me to believe that unless a vaccine is produced that provides sterilising immunity, we really are talking about many, many years of restrictions and possible lockdowns if things get out of control. Just so fucking depressing when I’d like to focus on the things I’m allowed to do but I can’t get the possibility of another terrible turning point out of my head.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I thought a huge amount of Israel have been jabbed.. Surprised at the threat of a lockdown.. Not clicking on the “suns” link

Slightly less than us now.
Canada is at the top of the pile now though.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It isn’t the only risk, it may not even be the major risk to public health, but it is the only unknown risk to public health.

Everything else we can quantify, or think we can live with, even though the cost in mental health and delays to other treatments are catastrophic for individuals.

I‘m not saying the approach taken is right, I have no idea if it’s right, unfortunately no one does, but I do understand why this approach has been taken.

I get that. What I struggle with is decades of every principle of public health advice, guidance and recommendations being thrown up in the air on the back of some highly dubious ‘evidence’ from China.

What changed from the WHO, in 2019, NOT recommending, in ANY circumstances of a viral pandemic the following?
UV light
Modifying humidity
Contact tracing
Quarantine of exposed individuals Entry and exit screening
Border closure

You could reasonably argue the precautionary principle in the beginning but the evidence for the efficacy of lockdowns and it’s impact on both Covid and the wider health and economic issues, should be incontrovertible by now and known by everyone.

All we have been doing by ignoring the pandemic plans we already had, is running the virus for longer, ensuring we have more ‘cases’ (which may be the right thing to do), but then panicking when we do, in fact, have more cases!
However, once you get past that, there must be a cost/benefit analysis being done which weighs up Quality Adjusted Life Years and, considering the average age of people dying with Covid in this country is still higher than the average age of those not dying with Covid, is obviously not being considered or, even worse, too difficult for them to do.

At least the government messaging is clear and unwavering after 18 months……..

 

[Healdplace]

OTHER ZOE APP DATA

Predicted cases are up today by 552 to 32, 412 - it has been around 31 - 33K for the past 2 weeks when the cases in Gov UK have climbed through the ceiling and is miles over this.

That discrepancy is hard to understand. Gov UK is clearly recording lots of cases Zoe is missing somehow.

Ongoing symptomatic cases up a little more day to day too on Zoe - by 4305 - double yesterday - bt well below the 5 figures daily of a week ago,

Zoe now on 468, 368 ongoing infections.

As for the regions:- Another huge day to day shift via the quirky way Zoe does these things

LONDON is now top region - having risen the most in the day from 748 to 832

NORTH WEST now second - still rising sadly from 836 to 863

NE & YORKSHIRE slips to third - FALLING from 891 to 872 (which is above both the two ahead of it hence quirky)

SCOTLAND now fourth - still dropping fast - from 871 to 807 - good signs here continue

NORTHERN IRELAND has dropped way down to 7th - falling fast daily - today from 1598 to 1129

It was 2665 10 days ago so that is a huge drop.

Though as yet no obvious sign of that in the Gov UK data.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

THE GOOD NEWS HERE CONTINUES MATCHING ZOE SEE POST JUST NOW SHOWING SCOTLAND DOWN IN FOURTH HIGHEST PART OF THE UK

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1735 cases - was 2048 last week

9.8% positivity - was 11.2% last week

511 patients - down 6 on yesterday - was 444 last week - numbers have been falling for a few days from a high of 543

46 ventilated icu - was 49 yesterday - was 40 last week


THESE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE VERY HOPEFUL AND BEEN GOING THIS WAY MUCH OF THE WEEK

Any thoughts on why other than Scotland was first into the Delta wave and seems to be becoming the first to come out?

Unless this proves a false dawn when we open up.

 

[Tonster]

SCOTLAND DATA

THE GOOD NEWS HERE CONTINUES MATCHING ZOE SEE POST JUST NOW SHOWING SCOTLAND DOWN IN FOURTH HIGHEST PART OF THE UK

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1735 cases - was 2048 last week

9.8% positivity - was 11.2% last week

511 patients - down 6 on yesterday - was 444 last week - numbers have been falling for a few days from a high of 543

46 ventilated icu - was 49 yesterday - was 40 last week


THESE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE VERY HOPEFUL AND BEEN GOING THIS WAY MUCH OF THE WEEK

Any thoughts on why other than Scotland was first into the Delta wave and seems to be becoming the first to come out?

Unless this proves a false dawn when we open up.

Schools closing some weeks ago. Still open elsewhere

 

[ayrshire_blue]

SCOTLAND DATA

THE GOOD NEWS HERE CONTINUES MATCHING ZOE SEE POST JUST NOW SHOWING SCOTLAND DOWN IN FOURTH HIGHEST PART OF THE UK

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1735 cases - was 2048 last week

9.8% positivity - was 11.2% last week

511 patients - down 6 on yesterday - was 444 last week - numbers have been falling for a few days from a high of 543

46 ventilated icu - was 49 yesterday - was 40 last week


THESE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE VERY HOPEFUL AND BEEN GOING THIS WAY MUCH OF THE WEEK

Any thoughts on why other than Scotland was first into the Delta wave and seems to be becoming the first to come out?

Unless this proves a false dawn when we open up.

Schools closing earlier must play a decent sized part in it. The euros to a lesser extent.

I'm not convinced it won't turn out a false dawn though, I don't know why the situation would be any different from Bolton for example. Zoe shows Glasgow now back on an upwards trend after a decent fall.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA


1 death - was 1 last week

537 cases - was 605 last week


ALL WE GET AT WEEKEND NOW.

Bit of a surprise to see a fall but hard to put in context without positivity rating.