Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Todays England hospital data ADMISSIONS

Shows not time to get over confident

Admissions (2 days behind as usual so MONDAY recall - always a big day)

752 - up from 698 Sunday and 610 the Monday before. And 416 the Monday before that. So the weekly rise is lower than the previous week,

Regionally NE & Yorkshire is the biggest contributor adding 197 of the 752 - up from 164 day before and 141 last Monday

But North West was still the second highest. On 141 -the highest yet in fact. Up from 110 Sunday and 105 the Monday before.

Midlands fell to 119 on Monday from 142 the day before and 122 the previous Monday

And London rose to 117 on Monday from 101 the day before and 96 the previous Monday.

 

[Rammy Blue]

You must have missed today’s stats and every other wave we’ve had.

I’m the eternal optimist, but you’re talking shit and trolling and you are well aware you are too.

The post you quoted originally showed absolutely nothing to back up your claim.

I sincerely hope we’ve peaked, but considering the experts reckon we will top 100k cases then I’ll reserve judgement for now.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Still more likely than not.

But with *huge* uncertainty. So an earlier lower peak is not at all out of the question.

How people behave is key, and I posted previously, paradoxically:

*If* people think it's all over and behave accordingly, it's likely to be really bad.

on the other hand...

*If* people think it's really bad and behave accordingly, it's likely to be OK!

But nevertheless, every day lower than the previous day is a good day.

In my opinion, freedom day was overshadowed by the England Euros final, so hopefully that will ensure the peak is not quite as bad.

 

[BlueAnorak]

This if true, and I suspect' it is, is just horrible feel so sorry so these people in poor countries like Indonesia and India.​

India's pandemic death toll could be in the millions​

India's excess deaths during the pandemic could be a staggering 10 times the official COVID-19 toll, likely making it modern India's worst human tragedy, according to the most comprehensive research yet on the ravages of the virus in the South Asian country.

Most experts believe India's official toll of more than 414,000 dead is a vast undercount

India's pandemic death toll could be in the millions

www.9news.com.au

Unsuprising. In the unvaccinated tge death rate is

Worryingly large increase in the number of cases in France yesterday. Fear that matters are going to deteriorate there over the next few weeks.

3 weeks behind us. 4 weeks behind us vaccination wise but with 5-10% less up take in older age cohorts.

 

[Gabriel]

In my opinion, freedom day was overshadowed by the England Euros final, so hopefully that will ensure the peak is not quite as bad.

I imagine the football would have led to more cases among younger men, while the opening of nightclubs may lead to more cases among younger women.

 

[Healdplace]

Todays England hospital data PATIENTS

This is today not Monday - only admissions cone two days late

Up 169 on day to top 4K at 4063. Last time we had this many patients was 23 March. Going down,.

Last week the Tue/Wed rise was 140 to 3110,

So a rise of 953 week to week.

Previous week the rise was 966. So the raw number and the % is down.

REGION Rise today / Number today / V last week


EAST Up 23 to 277 V 154

LONDON Up 51 to 713 V 540 The Most up today

MIDLANDS Up 14 to 763 V 601

NE & YORKSHIRE Up 43 to 927 The highest total in UK

NORTH WEST up 12 to 819 V 771 Lowest rise of all the large regions

SOUTH EAST up 11 to 326 V 227

SOUTH WEST up 15 to 238 V 160



As you see the NW is doing better than virtually everywhere

 

[roubaixtuesday]

In my opinion, freedom day was overshadowed by the England Euros final, so hopefully that will ensure the peak is not quite as bad.

I hope you're right. I'd expect them to add together - more cases going into "Freedom day" makes it worse still.

Exponential growth and all.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

In my opinion, freedom day was overshadowed by the England Euros final, so hopefully that will ensure the peak is not quite as bad.

Exactly, anyone who lives in Manchester City Centre will know the place has been carnage for weeks. I appreciate many posters will be hidden away in suburbia but it's not their demographic driving the infection stats as can be seen from the figures fantastically posted by @Healdplace every evening. Anyone who doesn't realise that probably just doesn't see it hence we get outraged posts about people popping to XYZ and not seeing everyone stood in a line 2m apart.

None of us know how things will go, but I would certainly wager that any caricaturing of step 4 as some big explosion of mixing hasn't really been paying attention. For me, May 17th was the big release of the handbrake and that is really when figures were inevitably going to rise, along with the Euros. We all await to see the peak but I don't envisage a sudden acceleration now, especially as schools breaking up may offset things too. We shall see as they say but either way I just cannot see a scenario where people accept being locked up again as it was clear months ago people had stopped paying attention.

I mean look at the current virtue signalling from politicians each racing against each other to declare themselves self-isolating due to pings. Surely they must know swathes of the population deleted the bloody thing ages ago!

 

[BlueAnorak]

This weeks ONS data on the percentage of adults who have antibodies for Covid - from either vaccination or catching Covid is: (wk ending 4 July - it is always 2 weeks old)

Nations - Latest number V previous week (wk ending 27 Jun)


ENGLAND 91.9% v 89.8%

N IRELAND 90% v 87.2%

SCOTLAND 88.6% v 84.7%

WALES 92.6% v 91.8%


Maybe if the seemingly unexpected data on cases falling in recent days - or at least stalling - if not a blip or data glitch as it may be - then it is down to these numbers (which have been going up every week and are now 2 weeks on from the above given the time lag). Could be they are tipping the balance?

Do we know similar numbers from other countries?

Those figures look really good. and as they're 5 days behind the actual figures we've probably stuck another 2% on since.
If they're right then herd immunity will start to kick in in 3 weeks.

 

[BlueAnorak]

On the vaccinations in the EU front, many countries are currently jabbing at a rate close to or above our peak.

View attachment 21702

The bloc is still a month or so behind on total vaccinations, but catching rapidly. Equally, they're a month or so behind on the delta wave. No sign of significant vaccine hesitancy in any of the major countries, though some former soviet bloc States (Romania, Bulgaria, baltics) are way behind. Hungary is an outlier having rolled out the Russian jab earlier. Being in the EU didn't stop them, note.

So, as predicted at the "vaccine wars" stage, it's made little difference in the end.

They have yet to hit the brick wall resistance of youth not wanting the vaccine. It will be interesting to see how the covid passports thing will go down in France.


Only 39k 1st jabs in the UK today.
It wil