Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Gabriel said:
It took ten days in the Netherlands for the stark effects of reopening nightclubs to become fully evident, but the starting position was admittedly low and the rise in cases appeared meteoric. In England, I suspect the effects will come through similarly, but they may be less pronounced because other events, congregating for the football, will camouflage them. That in turn might make it difficult to discern the true impact of nightclubs until later.
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I hope as many youth as possible pile in to nightclubs. The quicker the youth cohort gets to to high immunity levels the better.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Those figures look really good. and as they're 5 days behind the actual figures we've probably stuck another 2% on since.
If they're right then herd immunity will start to kick in in 3 weeks.
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Its even longer if you look at the dates

Hope so as I noted in earlier posts it may help explain why we are seeing what we are seeing,

But that is no more than a tentative maybe right now

Too many balls in the air right now to know for sure where they will fall.

But as Roubaix says it could go that way,

Or not,

We really have to wait and see.

And one thing is sure - though the case to death ratio is FAR lower than it was in the last wave we have a week or two of built in high death numbers coning from the lag from when we were in the 50Ks to when the fraction of those who will succumb do sadly succumb.

It is easy to forget that not all the numbers we see directly relate to one another,

Cases are from the past few days. Hospitalisations from infections possibly a week or so ago. And deaths are from those likely hospitalised some days or weeks ago.

So you have to think of what cases WERE around 3 weeks ago to get an idea of what we will see in the death numbers and maybe a week ago for what we see in hospital numbers.

It is hard to always remember that as we are used to data being all about now.
 
davealvers said:
I mean look at the current virtue signalling from politicians each racing against each other to declare themselves self-isolating due to pings
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For Starmer, Johnson and Sunak they weren't pings, at least as I understand it.

Starmer, his son has it.

The others were reported as close contacts by Javid, who'd been in meetings with them.
 
Rammy Blue said:
In my opinion, freedom day was overshadowed by the England Euros final, so hopefully that will ensure the peak is not quite as bad.
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I think that’s a reasonable shout and the mixing during England matches probably did more to spread it than anything since or anything likely as a result of the end of lockdown. I’m hoping that’s the case but not counting chickens.
 
davealvers said:
Exactly, anyone who lives in Manchester City Centre will know the place has been carnage for weeks. I appreciate many posters will be hidden away in suburbia but it's not their demographic driving the infection stats as can be seen from the figures fantastically posted by @Healdplace every evening. Anyone who doesn't realise that probably just doesn't see it hence we get outraged posts about people popping to XYZ and not seeing everyone stood in a line 2m apart.

None of us know how things will go, but I would certainly wager that any caricaturing of step 4 as some big explosion of mixing hasn't really been paying attention. For me, May 17th was the big release of the handbrake and that is really when figures were inevitably going to rise, along with the Euros. We all await to see the peak but I don't envisage a sudden acceleration now, especially as schools breaking up may offset things too. We shall see as they say but either way I just cannot see a scenario where people accept being locked up again as it was clear months ago people had stopped paying attention.

I mean look at the current virtue signalling from politicians each racing against each other to declare themselves self-isolating due to pings. Surely they must know swathes of the population deleted the bloody thing ages ago!
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"virtue signalling" bloody hell mate lay off the social media. Them algorithms have got ya.
 
Healdplace said:
Its even longer if you look at the dates

Hope so as I noted in earlier posts it may help explain why we are seeing what we are seeing,

But that is no more than a tentative maybe right now

Too many balls in the air right now to know for sure where they will fall.

But as Roubaix says it could go that way,

Or not,

We really have to wait and see.

And one thing is sure - though the case to death ratio is FAR lower than it was in the last wave we have a week or two of built in high death numbers coning from the lag from when we were in the 50Ks to when the fraction of those who will succumb do sadly succumb.

It is easy to forget that not all the numbers we see directly relate to one another,

Cases are from the past few days. Hospitalisations from infections possibly a week or so ago. And deaths are from those likely hospitalised some days or weeks ago.

So you have to think of what cases WERE around 3 weeks ago to get an idea of what we will see in the death numbers and maybe a week ago for what we see in hospital numbers.

It is hard to always remember that as we are used to data being all about now.
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Absolutely.
But I think it looks very hopeful.
Antibodies to earlier forms only help prevent serious illness from Delta.
 
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