Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ctwrd]

Doesn’t show cases have peaked at all, stop trolling.

We hope they have, but nothing from those figures shows it as yet.

You must have missed today’s stats and every other wave we’ve had.

 

[M18CTID]

Cases FALL again to 44, 104. This is starting to look for real now.

39, 504 in England.

96 all settings deaths.

I called it a couple of days ago - more in hope admittedly - that we might have peaked in terms of case numbers. I posted the case figures for Sat/Sun/Mon showing the significant day to day falls and the figures for the same 3 days the week before to illustrate the point I was making. Of course, 3 days is a very small sample size but the figures over the last 2 days on top of those 3 are promising too.

The opening of nightclubs and reduced mask wearing on public transport/in shops, etc, may well challenge my thinking so the jury is well and truly out but I’m of the opinion that the Euro 2020 final was the biggest super spreader event of the entire pandemic on these shores. The whole nation went out on the lash and pubs across the country were packed out hours and hours before kick off. For me, that was the main driver behind cases topping 50,000 a day late last week.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Cases FALL again to 44, 104. This is starting to look for real now.

Always good news to see cases fall, but I'd be very cautious.

This is still a rise from the same day last week, as has been every one of the last seven days, and the week to week rise is 35%. And of course far too soon to see if Monday's relaxation has any immediate effect.

It's the hope that gets you - but fingers crossed.

 

[vincent]

I called it a couple of days ago - more in hope admittedly - that we might have peaked in terms of case numbers. I posted the case figures for Sat/Sun/Mon showing the significant day to day falls and the figures for the same 3 days the week before to illustrate the point I was making. Of course, 3 days is a very small sample size but the figures over the last 2 days on top of those 3 are promising too.

The opening of nightclubs and reduced mask wearing on public transport/in shops, etc, may well challenge my thinking so the jury is well and truly out but I’m of the opinion that the Euro 2020 final was the biggest super spreader event of the entire pandemic on these shores. The whole nation went out on the lash and pubs across the country were packed out hours and hours before kick off. For me, that was the main driver behind cases topping 50,000 a day late last week.

But haven’t a number of leading scientists and Javid said in the last few days that cases will probably reach 100,000 a day?

 

[Summerbuzz]

I implore you all to give ctrwd some attention, it's a hard fucking life out there for someone who sticks their neck out.

I called it a couple of days ago - more in hope admittedly - that we might have peaked in terms of case numbers. I posted the case figures for Sat/Sun/Mon showing the significant day to day falls and the figures for the same 3 days the week before to illustrate the point I was making. Of course, 3 days is a very small sample size but the figures over the last 2 days on top of those 3 are promising too.

The opening of nightclubs and reduced mask wearing on public transport/in shops, etc, may well challenge my thinking so the jury is well and truly out but I’m of the opinion that the Euro 2020 final was the biggest super spreader event of the entire pandemic on these shores. The whole nation went out on the lash and pubs across the country were packed out hours and hours before kick off. For me, that was the main driver behind cases topping 50,000 a day late last week.

Far too early to say for me. The two weeks between Nov 16 and 30 saw a 40% drop in the rolling 7 day average. By the end of December they'd doubled again.

People could simply have stopped testing - there's been a bit of that in the air with 'delete the app'.

Regardless of wether or not that's true, the dynamics of each wave are very different.

 

[Del_Bosque]

I reckon we are in for a bumpy plateu of cases rather than a sustained drop or rise now

 

[M18CTID]

I implore you all to give ctrwd some attention, it's a hard fucking life out there for someone who sticks their neck out.

Far too early to say for me. The two weeks between Nov 16 and 30 saw a 40% drop in the rolling 7 day average. By the end of December they'd doubled again.

People could simply have stopped testing - there's been a bit of that in the air with 'delete the app'.

Regardless of wether or not that's true, the dynamics of each wave are very different.

True, but that example you cite was when the Kent variant took hold and cases started to rocket during December, leading to London being put in Tier 4 from Tier 2 in one fell swoop. Delta has been on the rampage for weeks and weeks now so unless there’s another highly transmissible variant waiting in the wings, I’d be surprised if we now hit 100,000 daily cases during this current wave.

 

[Healdplace]

Always good news to see cases fall, but I'd be very cautious.

This is still a rise from the same day last week, as has been every one of the last seven days, and the week to week rise is 35%. And of course far too soon to see if Monday's relaxation has any immediate effect.

It's the hope that gets you - but fingers crossed.

Indeed it is up but 1802 is pretty much a stall compared to recent large week to week rises.

The impact of 'freedom' day will not be visible until next week so we will see.

And the NW is DOWN 881` today on last week which is what I meant by the fall looks for real.

As it is starting to do in Scotland and the North West,

These were the first into Delta so it is reasonable to expect them to be ahead in coming out.

The other regions have gone up much more recently so expectations here are less immediate.

They may have the advantage of those extra weeks before Delta took off to vaccinate more and build that immunity level to those figures posted earlier.

But it is surely likely they have some climbing to do as yet. And the NW is not yet out of it with the legacy of deaths that past cases are still bringing.

So I do not suggest this is over now or next week. Far from it. But the signs where we would expect to see signs are good. Inferring Delta can be scaled.

 

[west didsblue]

I implore you all to give ctrwd some attention, it's a hard fucking life out there for someone who sticks their neck out.

Far too early to say for me. The two weeks between Nov 16 and 30 saw a 40% drop in the rolling 7 day average. By the end of December they'd doubled again.

People could simply have stopped testing - there's been a bit of that in the air with 'delete the app'.

Regardless of wether or not that's true, the dynamics of each wave are very different.

That was the fizzling out of the original virus merging into the Kent variant iirc.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But haven’t a number of leading scientists and Javid said in the last few days that cases will probably reach 100,000 a day?

Still more likely than not.

But with *huge* uncertainty. So an earlier lower peak is not at all out of the question.

How people behave is key, and I posted previously, paradoxically:

*If* people think it's all over and behave accordingly, it's likely to be really bad.

on the other hand...

*If* people think it's really bad and behave accordingly, it's likely to be OK!

But nevertheless, every day lower than the previous day is a good day.