TIme for another graph!
Source:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ with the last couple of data points deleted because they are always understated.
View attachment 21723
Yes, Manchester - being so big - is often misleading. It has the most cases in GM most days. But would, AS it is so big.
But the Pop Score chart I post every evening tells the story daily as that graph above does visually.
Manchester yesterday had 343 cases. The most in GM. But the week before it had 446. So it has fallen a lot week to week.
Its daily Pop score yesterday (the number that equates cases to population to allow comparison with everywhere else) was the lowest in GM. That means Manchester had the fewest expected cases of the 10 boroughs.
That is not common but has seen the city fall fast down the numbers chart that Gov UK use - a weekly Pop Score - on the same basis but charting progress week to week to minimise day to day case fluctuations and give a sense of whether it is doing well or not.
The Pop going down is good. How fast it fall tells you how good. The reverse is bad. As in rising fast is bad.
Manchester today has a Pop of 561. Last week it was 529. The week before that 503 and the week before that 494.
This shows you it has been going up but not that fast, AND that 4 days ago it peaked at 593 and has been falling since.
Several other GM boroughs are faoling now too ater weeks of rising as the table showed last night,
And Manchester has got better and better on that table amd right now only Bolton and Trafford have a lower score than Manchester.
At current rates Manchester could have the lowest Pop soon (Bolton is currently going the opposite way and Trafford went up yesterday too).
Manchester having the best Pop Score in GM is unusual due to its sheer size and would be very positive news.