Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

47 with 10 North West - last week was 35 with 9, week before 19 with 10

As you see the NW is contributing less and less as more regions add into the rising number. Which IS rising but not leaping up as yet.


Deaths by region:- 6 East, 13 London, 6 Midlands, 5 NE & Yorkshire, 10 North West, 1 South East, 6 South West.

2 of the deaths are old and one was even from before Christmas - so may well be discounted

The North West deaths were:

2 Bolton, 2 Lancashire, 2 Wigan and 1 each in Manchester, Morecambe Bay, Salford and Wirral

3 in County Durham was the most.

Deaths by age: 1 aged 20 - 39, 4 aged 40 - 59, 18 aged 60 - 79 and 24 aged 80 PLUS

 

[ayrshire_blue]

They didn’t have an extended Euros to cause issues, but they have had their schools shut for a few weeks now.

Any excuse to get a dig in about the Euros RB ;-)

But yeah the euros and to a much greater extent schools factor is surely playing a huge role. I do still worry that this plateau/decrease in numbers will only last until they're back though and start to go through the roof again. Hopefully not, but it's on the back of my mind.

Really good hospital figures from today, encouraging numbers.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS BY DATE

21 JUL adds 8 (last week this was 4)

20 JUL adds 17 to total 22 after 2 days (last week added 19 to equal 24) ** Less this wk than last

19 JUL adds 10 to total 50 after 3 days (last week added 3 to equal 15)** Huge contrast in these two days

50 is the highest number after 3 days since March 17 and the highest for ANY date since March 23

18 JUL adds 6 to total 38 after 4 days (last week added 2 to equal 17)

17 JUL adds 2 to equal 36 after 5 days (last week added 2 to equal 20)


TOTAL DAILY DEATHS AND WEEKLY TOTALS FOR LAST THREE WEEKS AT 5 DAYS


WK JUN 27 - JUL 3

10 / 9 / 10 / /19 / 11 / 22/ 15/ TOTAL 96 (8 more were added to these in total since)

WK JUL 4 - JUL !0

15 / 16 / 15 / 14 / 22 / 24 / 20 TOTAL: 126 (13 more were added to these in total since)

WK JUL 11 - JUL 17

17 / 18 / 31 / 22 / 27 / 31 / 36 TOTAL 182 (15 more were added to these in total since)

You can see that these numbers are rising significantly AND note the weekly add ons are rising too - despite the add ons at 15 for the most recent week having had two full weeks LESS time to add to the five day numbers since the first week above when only 8 have been added across those 3 weeks.

So you can expect all those recent daily totals to still go up

36 for 17 July is the highest 5 day total since 25 March.

BUT it will not be a record for long as the two days behind it at 4 and 3 days data only yet are BOTH higher already on 38 and 50.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

This is in the early phase of going skyward sadly

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1430 cases - was 1083 last week

7 day total cases 9372 - was 9088 yesterday & 4487 last week. More than doubled,

45 Care Home Outbreaks - was 40 yesterday & 19 last week

AS I KEEP SAYING THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING ME YET IT IS GETTING NO MEDIA ATTENTION AND I DOUBT IS JUST HAPPENING IN NORTHERN IRELAND.

BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN THEY SHOULD BE AND WILL CREATE MANY DEATHS I AM AFRAID

162 patients - up 28 in the day - was 80 last week - more than doubled

5 Ventilated - up 2 on yesterday - was 1 last week

GOOD: Not much today - though the positivity week to week has stabilised.

BAD: Those care homes as I suspect they are a key reason deaths are rising in the UK along with patients and ventilated numbers. And why testing positive in the over 80s has jumped up from single figures to triple figures in a couple of weeks in NI.

 

[Summerbuzz]

It's a nice example of how self- selected surveys are very difficult to generate unbiased data from.

People who choose to download Zoe are likely to be more concerned than average about COVID, so more likely to get vaccinated and maybe more likely to behave responsibly. So they have to try and correct for these and other biases. As presumably the number and range of people using the app also changes all the time, that's really very difficult.

Testing data is also self selecting to an extent, but less biased probably.

The weekly ONS survey which attempts ac random sample of the population is probably most representative of the overall spread, but obviously lags by a week or two.

I think REACT uses the same panel every time?

All useful data, but all needs to be treated cautiously.

Zoe is going to pick up a lot of respiratory viruses that will be back in circulation after lockdown thanks to low immunity levels in the community. Read reports of booms of RSV (usually a winter thing) in children from clinical staff as far afield as Germany and the US last night.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

Yep, good old mainstream media.

The coverage of this pandemic by most of the printed media and some of the broadcasters has been diabolical. Unbalanced with little context, political instead of factual, dishonest and downright hysterical on occasions. As a country we deserve better.
The accurate information is all out there in science journals (which has been double checked and verified) and from certain trusted experts in the NHS, Public Health, and other scientific fields.
We have had to endure months of overhyped stories about people trapped at airports and food shortages etc etc. Thankfully I have been able to get most of my information from family and friends who work in the NHS, public health, and other key areas plus some of the excellent information which has been posted on this site.
You can't blame people for not trusting the national media, not least because we have seen all the fake news reported about our football club. But this failure of our media has left a vacuum which has been filled by conspiracy loons.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE:

0 - 19 (2407) 25.8%

20 - 39 (4341) 46.3%

40 - 59 (1847) 19.6%

60 - 79 (666) 7.1%

80 PLUS (109) 1.2%


AS YOU CAN SEE THE % OF OVER 60s IS CLEARLY RISING - NOW 8.3% -0 HIGHEST IN MONTHS. IT WAS UNDER 3% A MONTH OR SO AGO.


THIS WILL DISPROPRTIONATELY DRIVE UP HOSPUITALISATIONS AND DEATHS AND I STRINGLY SUSPECT IT IS THE RISING CARE HOMES AGAIN THAT ARE THE REAL ISSUE HERE,

 

[Healdplace]

So todays UK deaths with out of hospital England to come is 73.

Last week it was 54 at this point - that became 63 on all settings later.

 

[Healdplace]

And todays 3 nations cases with England to come are 3967

Last week at this stage it was 4030.

England added 44, 523 last week to total 48, 553 for the UK

THAT WAS A RISE OF 6231 FROM WEDNESDAY AND 16,002 wk to wk from 32, 551

Yesterday it added 39, 504 to total 44, 104 for the UK

ANYBODY'S GUESS WHERE TODAY WILL GO.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Any excuse to get a dig in about the Euros RB ;-)

But yeah the euros and to a much greater extent schools factor is surely playing a huge role. I do still worry that this plateau/decrease in numbers will only last until they're back though and start to go through the roof again. Hopefully not, but it's on the back of my mind.

Really good hospital figures from today, encouraging numbers.

When I wrote it I had a feeling you’d comment, lol.