Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Vaccinations:

45, 101 first doses and 183, 338 second doses yesterday

87.8% of adult population have had a first dose - 69.2% both.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I think for many, espeically young, even if they have some of the symptoms they're not bothering to get a test anymore.

Let’s blame the young for cases going up.
Let’s blame the young for cases going down.
Blame. Government policy in a nutshell.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Let’s blame the young for cases going up.
Let’s blame the young for cases going down.
Blame. Government policy in a nutshell.

that wasn't really my angle, just feel most out there don't really care about it all anymore and if they get a cold they'll just carry on as normal without getting tested.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

vaccines and less people to infect?

Eventually that should turn the tide, absolutely. But not enough to turn around rapid growth to rapid fall on a week to week basis.

There's a lot changing at the moment, Euros over, schools finishing, restrictions lifted, huge numbers pinged, people's attitudes shifting. Impossible to know how it'll all land. Anyone confident they can say is overconfident, I think!

But still, every drop is great to see and encouraging.

 

[splinter]

Vaccinations:

45, 101 first doses and 183, 338 second doses yesterday

87.8% of adult population have had a first dose - 69.2% both.

If we can hit 90% both doses that's some bloody achievement..its looking likely

 

[west didsblue]

It's very good news - the first week on week fall since mid May, I think?

But the difference between this week and last can't really be explained by "running out of people to infect" - not enough people have been infected in that interval to make anything like that much difference.

per @west didsblue it's unfortunately definitely not enough to say the tide has turned.

But very good news as far as it goes. We need some!

I suppose using the word "definitely" was a bit overboard and tempting fate but I must say I'm quite hopeful. Looking at previous peaks I will stick my neck out and predict that the death rate won't peak at more than 120 per day and will fall off quickly.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Let’s blame the young for cases going up.
Let’s blame the young for cases going down.
Blame. Government policy in a nutshell.

Divide and conquer

 

[Del_Bosque]

Nice to see a drop, expecting a bumpy plateuing for a few weeks tbh

Weather, Euros over and Schools out all helping

Nightclubs and no social distancing in pubs not so much.

92% of adults in England having antibodies according to ONS as well, surely it must be running out of road soon.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I suppose using the word "definitely" was a bit overboard and tempting fate but I must say I'm quite hopeful. Looking at previous peaks I will stick my neck out and predict that the death rate won't peak at more than 120 per day and will fall off quickly.

I admire your confidence! Deaths are I think at least a fortnight behind cases? So depending how you define "peak" (single day or 7 day average, by reported day or day of death) depends how likely your prediction is. Current 7 day average is ~55 but I think we've already seen a 96 single day report.

I think it's very unlikely we'll see a quick dropoff. But not impossible, we can hope.

 

[west didsblue]

Eventually that should turn the tide, absolutely. But not enough to turn around rapid growth to rapid fall on a week to week basis.

There's a lot changing at the moment, Euros over, schools finishing, restrictions lifted, huge numbers pinged, people's attitudes shifting. Impossible to know how it'll all land. Anyone confident they can say is overconfident, I think!

But still, every drop is great to see and encouraging.

ONS now saying in data released yesterday based on projections from blood testing from 3 weeks ago that 92% of adults would test positive for antibodies and the number fully vaccinated is in the high 60s. It's a different measure than official figures but likely to be closer to reality. Based on that I think we're closer to HI than you might think.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...antibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021