Coronavirus (2021) thread

[west didsblue]

I admire your confidence! Deaths are I think at least a fortnight behind cases? So depending how you define "peak" (single day or 7 day average, by reported day or day of death) depends how likely your prediction is. Current 7 day average is ~55 but I think we've already seen a 96 single day report.

I think it's very unlikely we'll see a quick dropoff. But not impossible, we can hope.

I didn't say I was confident!!

I think the 96 in a single day was an accumulation from the weekend.

 

[ell]

I think for many, espeically young, even if they have some of the symptoms they're not bothering to get a test anymore.

Over a million tests done, and most people who do lateral flows don't bother to register them too so true number likely to be a lot more.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Looking back to the 3 modelling studies and plugging the real vaccine data in, All three overcooked the effectiveness of one jab by 5% or so for mRNA and AZ and undercooked the effectiveness of two jabs for infection.
For two mRNA / AZ jabs against the actual numbers.
Imperial -2.5% / -10%
LSHTM -7.5% / -6%
Warwick -7.5% / -4%
Can't say for hospitalisations yet as unvacinated are not yet present in the hospitalised stats.Although 60% on average are unvacinated.
That said the average stay is much shorter than previous waves. About 6 days (that's about a 1/3 of January's rate) with the hospitalised increasing by 13% of the admissions per day. At that rate it will take us about 8 months to reach January's capacity.
So, the only problem is ventilation.which is going up by an average of 15 a day across the UK. Again no detail on vaccinated / unvaccinated which makes it very difficult to asses if there is a problem but to get from 647 to 4000 it would take around 7 months of growth at the current rate to reach capacity.
That said, at current rates of increase (or double or treble) then the NHS won't be in trouble any time soon.

 

[Len Rum]

Nice to see a drop, expecting a bumpy plateuing for a few weeks tbh

Weather, Euros over and Schools out all helping

Nightclubs and no social distancing in pubs not so much.

92% of adults in England having antibodies according to ONS as well, surely it must be running out of road soon.

This is key.
The fall in cases is obviously welcome.
How it plays out in the short term will depend on how the various competing factors you mention above work to increase or decrease cases.

 

[Healdplace]

I admire your confidence! Deaths are I think at least a fortnight behind cases? So depending how you define "peak" (single day or 7 day average, by reported day or day of death) depends how likely your prediction is. Current 7 day average is ~55 but I think we've already seen a 96 single day report.

I think it's very unlikely we'll see a quick dropoff. But not impossible, we can hope.

Moreover NW is flattening not falling much. It was actually UP today not down like almost everywhere.

Not by much but enough to make it the highest region again.

As you saw today in my posts earlier still more people going into hospital in the NW than last week - though no longer the most daily or even second most as other regions have caught up. But those high admisdsions will still translate into deaths and there are still the second highest on ventilators in the NW today. That will inevitable mean more death down the track.

As I posted earlier today the cases now create hospital admissions maybe next week and ventilators the week after and deaths in maybe 3 weeks.

UNTIL we see real falls in the NW nowhere is really out of the woods yet.

Most of the recent falls have been down south. That is good news in that they were overtaking and zooming away and could have gone stratospheric

But in the NW numbers are flat rather than falling.

They need to be falling on days like today instead of going up 278.

Then we might be talking a real fall.

I agree with Roubaix. We MIGHT be heading that way but it is too early to call just now.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester - by the way - again had a better day than the NW as a whole.

Down 64 on the day when the NW rose 278. You cannot do much better than that,

Week to week down 457 of the 612 the NW falls from last Wednesday, Well over expectation,

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

PATIENTS

4230 patients - up 167 on yesterday V 3241 last Thursday - a weekly rise of 989.

Last Thursday the daily rise was 131 and the weekly rise had been 1032.

REGIONS v Change today from yesterday and V last week


EAST up 22 to 299 V 164

LONDON up 22 to 735 V 575

MIDLANDS up 52 to 815 V 602

NE & YORKSHIRE up 16 to 943 V 704

SOUTH EAST up 33 to 359 V 238

SOUTH WEST up 6 to 244 V 170


And NORTH WEST up 16 to 835 V 788


As you can see North West week to week up lowest of all the regions. Well behind NE & Yorkshire now on total patients with Midlands just 20 behind and London closing in.


TOTAL UK PATIENTS: TODAY V LAST WEEK

England 4230 V 3241

N Ireland 162 V 80

Scotland 488 V 543

Wales 107 v 81


UK TOTAL 4987 UP FROM 3945 LAST WEEK

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the average stay is much shorter than previous waves. About 6 days (that's about a 1/3 of January's rate) with the hospitalised increasing by 13% of the admissions per day

You're claiming the average stay now is 6 days, but was 18 days in January, do I have that right?

Got a source?

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA


VENTILATORS

612 - up 45 on yesterday V 493 last Thursday - a weekly rise of 119

Last Thursday the daily rise was just 4 and the weekly rise had been 117


REGIONS v Change today from yesterday and V last week


EAST up 7 to 42 V 29

LONDON up 12 to 141 V 117

MIDLANDS up 3 to 115 V 92

NE & YORKSHIRE up 4 to 109 V 82

SOUTH EAST up 6 to 38 V 32

SOUTH WEST up 7 to 41 V 18


And NORTH WEST up 6 to 126 V 123

So NW not out of this and up today BUT not the most in the UK now (London is) and everywhere else up much more week to week than the small NW one.

NORTH WEST HAS BEEN DRIVING THIS NUMBER FOR WEEKS AND HENCE THE RESULTING DEATHS IN HOSPITAL EACH DAY. THAT IS SLOWLY CHANGING. BUT ALWAYS LAGS THE OTHER NUMBERS.



TOTAL UK VENTILATED: TODAY V LAST WEEK

England 612 V 493

N Ireland 5 V 1

Scotland 58 V 47

Wales 26 v 8 - Huge jump here note,


UK TOTAL 701 UP FROM 549 LAST WEEK

 

[BlueAnorak]

You're claiming the average stay now is 6 days, but was 18 days in January, do I have that right?

Got a source?

Maths on the governments own Covid-19 admissions and hospitalised data sets.