Coronavirus (2021) thread

[MadchesterCity]

In the simplest terms:

1. It makes it less likely for you to catch it in the first place. If you don't catch it, you can't pass it on.

2. If you do catch it, you tend to infect less other people. That's because you have less viral particles ("virions") in your body, a lower "viral load", as the vaccine gives your immune system a head start on the virus. The less virus particles you breathe out, the less likely you are to infect someone else.

Current estimates of these are in this table from sage, as used in the modelling of the outbreak.

View attachment 21919

Shows how shit AZ is compared to Pfizer.
Pissed off I had to take AZ!

 

[splinter]

New cases in the Netherlands 4,665 today. Figure has been falling consistently all week and was 10,198 last Sunday.

How's vaccination coming along

 

[Marvin]

These drops are so large it's hard to believe they truly reflect the change in transmission of the virus over the week. Particularly because they seem to be almost uniform across the country, which isn't what you'd expect if it was a herd immunity thing.

That's not at all to suggest that they're faked, or anything like that, I'm sure they genuinely show the level of positive tests.

But perhaps there's something going on here with people being less likely to come forward for testing with the end of restrictions and not wanting to isolate through holidays? Plus maybe many people reacted to "freedom day" by keeping the hell away from the unmasked revellers out to lick as many people as possible??

Anyway, surely at least some of this must be real and excellent news.

There's one possible explanation. They spiked up because of the football?

 

[Gabriel]

How's vaccination coming along

Figures are now only being released on Tuesdays and Thursdays, but the rate has been slowing in recent weeks; it’s down 45% on what it was in mid-June. Some 20 million have likely been given by now, but it would need to be around 30 million for everyone over 12 to be double dosed. It’s expected that 1 million will be given this week.

Unlike France/Greece/Cyprus etc., there’s been no stick approach to the vaccination programme, so I suspect the government will see how many have participated voluntarily before deciding what to do next.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Something very odd is going on with Delta. Feels like it rockets up and down very very quickly in terms of numbers.

I think it just rockets in population cohorts where it can then stops till it finds the next opportunity. I actually think the regular pub/bar going cohort have all had it which is why numbers are falling - it will try and find somewhere else to spread

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 633 / 751 / DOWN 118 Testing positive 13.2%

Wigan 614 / 731 / DOWN 117 Testing positive 12.5 %

Salford 612 / 630 / DOWN 18 Testing positive 12.7%

Tameside 570 / 621 / DOWN 51 Testing positive 11.0%

Salford 612 / 630 / DOWN 18 Testing positive 12.7%

Rochdale 543 / 698 / DOWN 153 Testing positive 12.9 %

Stockport 502 / 562 / DOWN 60 Testing positive 9.9%

Manchester 478 / 557 / DOWN 79 Testing positive 13.2%

Trafford 466 / 530 / DOWN 64 Testing positive 10.0%

Bury 457 / 569 / DOWN 112 Testing positive 12.2%

Bolton 434 / 447 / DOWN 13 Testing positive 13.0%


WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES!

For the first time in weeks EVERY borough now going down week to week

Some gigantic Pop Score falls result.

Nobody now over 700 and under 200 separating top (now Oldham again) from best (Bolton).




Stockport up by 50. well down on yesterday, to 9915 - and Trafford up 53 . So Stockport's lead rises to 108.

Trafford's excellent turnabout in past days delayed its entry into the 10K club until today where it is now on 10, 023.

Stockport IS the last borough standing in 4 figures on 9915, Will also join the 10K club either today or tomorrow depending on how good/bad the scores are today!

Bolton also joined the 13K club today - after the best GM rise today - just 45 - up to 13, 044

Bury also sub 50 - up 49 to 12, 198

Manchester up 57 to 13, 247 still the highest in GM though it is now pretty close

Oldham up 67 to 13, 232 - so could go top over Manchester today.

Rochdale up 63 to 12, 994 and staved off the 13K club one day but will be there today.

Salford also up 67 to 12, 739

Tameside up 58 to 11, 068

And Wigan up just 56 - a low here for some time - to 12, 492.

So GM has 1 (Stockport) in the 9000s (for 48 hours maximum)

1 in the 10K club (Trafford)

1 in the 11K club (Tameside)

4 on the 12 K club (Bury, Rochdale, Salford ad Wigan) but will be 3 today a Rochdale move up to 13K

And 3 in the 13 K club (Bolton, Oldham and Manchester - with Oldham on course to take top spot from Manchester in next day or so perhaps and that 3 to be 4 when Rochdale joins today).

NATIONALLY FOR COMPARISON

There is ONE place in the 16K club - Burnley on 16, 826 - so soon to be the 17K club!

There is ONE place in the 15 K club - Burnley

And two in the 14K club - Knowsley and Hyndburn (Accrington etc)

And two others only bar the GM ones in the 13K club (Hartlepool and Pendle).

AS YOU CAN SEE WITH ALL THOSE EAST LANCASHIRE BIG NUMBWERS ABOVE THE EPICENTRE OF DELTA IS VERY CLEAR. HENCE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE NORTH WEST NUMBERS


The lowest Pop Score across the pandemic is now 656 in Orkney.

Nearly all the others under the 3 K club (there are only 7 of them) are in the Scottish Islands.

There were others in rural parts of Devon & Cornwall but Delta has well and truly clobbered them lately.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Shows how shit AZ is compared to Pfizer.
Pissed off I had to take AZ!

The modelling numbers have undercooked the effectiveness of double jabbed AZ against Delta. The actual figures came out last week.

 

[Healdplace]

Shows how shit AZ is compared to Pfizer.
Pissed off I had to take AZ!

After two doses the risk of serious illness and death are pretty similar if you look.

Pfizer is slightly better in those numbers. But not enough to worry about.

THAT is the point of vaccines - not to stop you catching Covid.

It is the biggest single mistake nearly everyone makes about vaccines.

The data shows pretty conclusively they both work as otherwise the numbers in hospital would be much nearer the 40K they were in January not the 5K they are now.

If AZ was not working as well as Pfizer stopping that it would be well above that level given how many in the UK have had AZ doses.

 

[splinter]

Figures are now only being released on Tuesdays and Thursdays, but the rate has been slowing in recent weeks; it’s down 45% on what it was in mid-June. Some 20 million have likely been given by now, but it would need to be around 30 million for everyone over 12 to be double dosed. It’s expected that 1 million will be given this week.

Unlike France/Greece/Cyprus etc., there’s been no stick approach to the vaccination programme, so I suspect the government will see how many have participated voluntarily before deciding what to do next.

Excellent figures

 

[grunge]

There's one possible explanation. They spiked up because of the football?

That’s what I’m thinking. Football spiked it higher than natural growth and we have normalised a bit.