Coronavirus (2021) thread

[inbetween]

To those considering the drops in case numbers, just think about what has been driving case numbers in recent weeks. We've just had major events such as the Euros where the majority of participants were young unvaccinated people out on the lash. We've also had schools gripped by a pingdemic, we've had lots more random asymptomatic testing than before however the schools are now closed and that testing should drop.

The result is of course cases are going to drop because case transmission in more traditional settings has fallen dramatically because of the vaccines. The R number back in March last year was in the region of 2+, it has since never risen above 1.5 despite us having no measures and dominant Delta!

It is no longer credible to say that Delta is more transmissible or able to avoid the vaccines. Whichever it is, we are slowly beating this virus.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 559 / 798 / DOWN 239 Testing positive 13.3%

Salford 547/ 683 / DOWN 136 Testing positive 12.8%

Wigan 541 / 791 / DOWN 250 Testing positive 12.5 %

Tameside 520 / 658 / DOWN 138 Testing positive 11.0%

Rochdale 498 / 726 / DOWN 228 Testing positive 13.0 %

Stockport 458 / 603 / DOWN 145 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 425 / 598 / DOWN 173 Testing positive 12.2%

Manchester 424 / 593 / DOWN 169 Testing positive 13.3%

Trafford 409 / 554 / DOWN 145 Testing positive 10.1%

Bolton 388 / 487 / DOWN 99 Testing positive 13.1%


MORE HUGE FALLS IN WEEKLY POP - EVERYONE DOWN AND ONLY BOLTON NOT BY THREE FIGURES AND IT IS 99!!.

Lowest GM has been in three weeks.

Nobody now over 600 and 150 separating top (now Oldham again) from best (Bolton). Now under 400 again.




Stockport up by 56 to 9971 - and Trafford up by the lowest it has had in ages - just 41 to 10, 064. So Stockport's lead was slashed to just 93 by a vastly improved Trafford.

It looks set to regain the lowest Pop Score from Stockport if this continues for much longer,

Stockport will stop being the last 4 figure Pop Score when it rises into the 10 K club too tomorrow.

Bolton again was the best Pop Score in GFM - just 39 - first by anyone under 40 in few weeks - up to 13, 083

Bury up just 44 to 12, 242

Manchester up 42 to 13, 289 still the highest in GM - just!

Oldham up just 49 - its first sub 50 in some time - to 13, 281 - and it could be either them or Manchester with the highest Pop Score in GM tomorrow as the race at the top is even closer now thwn the one at the bottom.

Rochdale up 61 to join the 13K club at 13, 055 as its 4th member. GM has the most of these anywhere,

Salford up 62 to 12, 801 and will be the fifth into the 13K club one day next week.

Tameside up 55 to 11, 123

And Wigan up just 53 - another low here for some time - to 12, 545.

So GM has 1 (Stockport) in the 9000s (for 24 hours anyway)

1 in the 10K club (Trafford)

1 in the 11K club (Tameside)

3 in the 12 K club (Bury, Salford and Wigan)

And 4 in the 13 K club (Bolton, Oldham, Rochdale and Manchester - with Oldham on course to take top spot from Manchester any day now as they are just 8 apart).

 

[ganganvince]

To those considering the drops in case numbers, just think about what has been driving case numbers in recent weeks. We've just had major events such as the Euros where the majority of participants were young unvaccinated people out on the lash. We've also had schools gripped by a pingdemic, we've had lots more random asymptomatic testing than before however the schools are now closed and that testing should drop.

The result is of course cases are going to drop because case transmission in more traditional settings has fallen dramatically because of the vaccines. The R number back in March last year was in the region of 2+, it has since never risen above 1.5 despite us having no measures and dominant Delta!

It is no longer credible to say that Delta is more transmissible or able to avoid the vaccines. Whichever it is, we are slowly beating this virus.

Really hope so as we have nothing else to hit it with.

 

[antspider]

Over a million yellow cards raised for adverse reactions according to the government which is lower than the actual bearing in mind most dont report feeling crap for a few days

That is quite a high figure. Do you know how bad a reaction has to be for a card to be raised ?

 

[Healdplace]

GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 78.1% / 64.0% V 78.0%/ 63.7% Up 0.4

BURY 79.6% / 65.1% V 79.5% / 64.8% Up 0.4

MANCHESTER 63.0% / 45.4% V 62.9% / 45.2% Up 0.3

OLDHAM 75.1% / 60.2% V 75.1% / 60.0% Up 0.2

ROCHDALE 75.8% / 62.2% V 75.8% / 61.9% Up 0.3

SALFORD 70.0% / 51.6% V 70.0% / 51.1% Up 0.5

STOCKPORT 84.1% / 68.8% V 84.0% / 68.5% Up 0.4

TAMESIDE 79.6% / 65.7% V 79.6%/ 65.6% Up 0.1

TRAFFORD 81.6% / 67.6% V 81.5% / 67.2% UP 0.5

WIGAN 82.8% / 68.1% V 82.8% / 67.8% Up 0.3




Salford and Trafford on 0.5 - the most today.

Tameside the least on 0.1

As you see not even Stockport - easily best in GM - is quite up to the national % number levels.

Which as of today in the UK are:-

First dose 88% of all adults (England 87.9%, N Ireland 82.6%, Scotland 90%, Wales 90%)

Both doses 70,3% of all adults (England 69.9%, N Ireland 69.4%, Scotland 69.4% Wales 78.2%)


Wales has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I wonder if we've hit or close to HI amongst the adult population, and now the kids are our of school that sub-population completely unvaccinated just isn't mixing

Don't know if you follow Francois Balloux or not on social media or or aware of him, but he said this today re HI and I found it logical and interesting.

 

[Essex blue]

That is quite a high figure. Do you know how bad a reaction has to be for a card to be raised ?

Too be honest anything that’s reported to a doctor will probably have a yellow card raised or should

Over 1400 deaths as well but only counted apparently if it happens within 7 days of a jab.

For most the jab is relatively safe but we don’t know the longer term affects yet

 

[Essex blue]

AZ figures from the gov yellow card


TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG
794545
999
TOTAL REPORTS
222291
TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS
999

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK

But any rise in cases linked to the 19 July unlocking is unlikely to show up in the daily data just yet.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[inbetween]

AZ figures from the gov yellow card


TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG
794545
999
TOTAL REPORTS
222291
TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS
999

The yellow card scheme must be taken with a pinch of salt, reports on there are outcomes that aren't subjected to a review process as to whether the vaccine did have anything to do with the outcome. If I had undiagnosed diabetes, had the jab and then got diagnosed a week later with diabetes, did the vaccine cause it?

One lung cancer death has been reported on the AZ yellow card print however clearly the vaccine did not cause it as opposed to the cancer present when that person had the vaccine.....

The biggest single thing is it gives regulators knowledge of patterns. If an unusually high number of young people start dying of blood clots for example within a few weeks of having a vaccine then that clearly is something to investigate.