Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

ZOE DATA (TODAY)


PREDICTED DAILY CASES

UP from 62, 502 to 62, 888. ZOE HAS FLATTENED IN PAST FEW DAYS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED OF THIS NUMBER WHILST THE REAL CASES DAILY WERE PLUMMETING

ONGOING SYPTOMATIC CASES - UP ON ZOE

From 767, 618 to 783, 674 - a rise of 16, 056 TODAY V 16, 884 yesterday and over 23 K the day before



Highest watch zones.

1st LONDON down slightly from 1243/1487 TO 1232 /1476

2nd NE & YORKS down from 1033 /1426 TO 1016 / 1406

3rd NORTHERN IRELAND UP from 551 / 1838 TO 554 / 1846

4th NORTH WEST UP from from 914 / 1188 TO 914 /1190

All the other regions BAR two are in the mid red with Wales and Scotland alone in the lightest watch zone on their own.

Wales UP from 351 / 646 TO 354 / 651

And Scotland - lowest in UK - UP from 338 / 569 TO 341 / 573


Zoe also shows Greater Manchester as worse than most of the NW right now.

Tameside has become the worst part of the NW Though some others not far off and rising.



GM BOROUGHS: ESTIMATED CASES PER MILLION POPULATION YESTERDAY / TODAY


BOLTON UP 18 806 TO 21 915

BURY DOWN BIG 16 267 TO 7118 FALLEN INTO LOWEST WATCH ZONE

MANCHESTER UP 18 629 TO 20 232

OLDHAM DOWN BIG 17 935 TO 9864 ALSO NOW IN LOWER WATCH ZONE

ROCHDALE DOWN 4583 TO 4404 * BEST IN GM IN LOWER WATCH ZONE

SALFORD UP 9366 TO 13 382 BACK UP INTO HIHER WATCH ZONE

STOCKPORT DOWN SLOWLY 15 517 TO 14 940 EDGED DOWN FROM WORST IN GM TO NOT CLOSE IN LAST FIVE DAYS

TAMESIDE UP 21 802 TO 19 24 971 - NOW HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WEST AND STILL RISING ON ZOE

TRAFFORD UP 12 456 TO 12 820

WIGAN DOWN 17 475 TO 12 391

 

[worsleyweb]

By the way - anyone want to hazard a guess as to what the percentage of cases right now are people catching covid for a second time?

answer

about 1 in 200.

Or more accurately testing positive for it after already having had it before.

My daughter - student nurse thinks she has again. Lost smell and feels like shit - had it last November and double jabbed. Just going for a test.

 

[Healdplace]

My daughter - student nurse thinks she has again. List smell and feels like shit - had it last November and double jabbed. Just going for a test.

That is a shame for her. Hope she is OK. Chances are she will be.

I suspect even more have had it twice than realise and had it despite vaccinations possibly too.

Largely as catching it once or having the vaccine will have primed the body to react unlike the first time when it is a new thing the body has never seen.

It is very probable that makes a big difference in many people as to how the body responds

Much as most people seem to have fewer bad reactions on second dose of vaccine to the first. The body recognises what it is from a few weeks before.

So - whilst there will always be exceptions - catching Covid twice or catching it after vaccinations seem likely to be different experiences from catching it the first time or catching it pre vaccination

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

The yellow card scheme must be taken with a pinch of salt, reports on there are outcomes that aren't subjected to a review process as to whether the vaccine did have anything to do with the outcome. If I had undiagnosed diabetes, had the jab and then got diagnosed a week later with diabetes, did the vaccine cause it?

One lung cancer death has been reported on the AZ yellow card print however clearly the vaccine did not cause it as opposed to the cancer present when that person had the vaccine.....

The biggest single thing is it gives regulators knowledge of patterns. If an unusually high number of young people start dying of blood clots for example within a few weeks of having a vaccine then that clearly is something to investigate.

Sounds like how they count Covid deaths but with 21 days with less leeway.

 

[Healdplace]

Professor Paul Hunter just been on BBC News talking about the falling cases.

He suggests many more young people have had Covid than we are counting from all the mixing in June and that we are close t o the point of equilibrium where cases would naturally flatten and fall.

He notes that Scotland showed this first (but despite doing this from Cheshire where I assume he lives) did not seem to have noticed it was happening in the North West to hospital data after Scotland but before this weeks fall.

He says there likely will be a small uptick from the opening up sometime this week but that numbers will quickly level off and fall again as we are around as high as this wave is going to go.

He expects hospital data in England to peak middle of this week as it lags the cases from last week.

He also says that whilst vaccine impact wanes across several months the evidence is the more important body protection (I assume he meant T cells) are more long lasting and potentially could last years and more important as they will help mitigate any second infection to less severity.

He did not mention new variants we may yet face but that is a given risk but uncertain as to
if or when that would happen.

Think that fairly summarises his live interview.

 

[Healdplace]

Incidentally one theory being discussed on why this plateau has come early - assuming it is real - is that Delta creates faster infection so there is less of a lag before people know they are ill and take action - and those few days difference might reduce the peak of any wave if you base it on the infectivity rate of past variants. Because in the past they could have infected more in dribs and drabs in differing locations during the period they were still not sure they were ill.

No idea if that makes sense as science - especially as Delta seems more infectious too - but it seems as plausible as anything I have seen.

Chances are it will be several things converging. Yet as this variant acted similarly in India - steep climb and early peak - it could all be related to a common denominator of this variant.

 

[salfordbluetrue]

Professor Paul Hunter just been on BBC News talking about the falling cases.

He suggests many more young people have had Covid than we are counting from all the mixing in June and that we are close t o the point of equilibrium where cases would naturally flatten and fall.

He notes that Scotland showed this first (but despite doing this from Cheshire where I assume he lives) did not seem to have noticed it was happening in the North West to hospital data after Scotland but before this weeks fall.

He says there likely will be a small uptick from the opening up sometime this week but that numbers will quickly level off and fall again as we are around as high as this wave is going to go.

He expects hospital data in England to peak middle of this week as it lags the cases from last week.

He also says that whilst vaccine impact wanes across several months the evidence is the more important body protection (I assume he meant T cells) are more long lasting and potentially could last years and more important as they will help mitigate any second infection to less severity.

He did not mention new variants we may yet face but that is a given risk but uncertain as to
if or when that would happen.

Think that fairly summarises his live interview.

Since most of the population will have already had the virus twice before the vaccine came out( from my own small survey of staff and their families 300 pods) and 30% did not show any symptoms, another 30% slight symptoms with a estimated 15% rejection of the vaccine, i would say your prof was edging his bets, but coming from the BBC it probably is trash.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA:

GOOD AND BAD NEWS

BAD:- CONFIRMATION NO DATA FROM TAYSIDE LAB SINCE 23 JULY. I WILL LET AYRSHIRE SUGGEST HOW MUCH DATA THIS MIGHT MEAN IS MISSING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT

GOOD: CASES AND POSITIVITY AND HOSPITAL NUMBERS GOING DOWN STILL


0 Deaths - was 0 last week (Monday usually is nil due to no registrations on Sunday)

1000 cases - was 1464 last week

8,0% positivity - was 10.3% last week

475 patients - down 5 on yesterday - was 536 last Monday

65 ventilated icu - - up 1 on yesterday - was 45 last week.

Looks as if there are fewer patients but some staying longer term are bumping up icu beds


RECALL VENTILATORS AND DEATHS WILL BE THE LAST MEASURES TO GO DOWN.

PATIENT NUMBERS CLEARLY ARE AND HAVE BEEN FOR OVER A WEEK AND THIS WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING IF THERE WAS ONLY AN ILLUSIONARY FALL AS PATIENTS WOULD STILL GET SICK ENOUGH TO BE HOSPITALISED WITH OR WTHOUT A TEST

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS SATURDAY


58 with 14 North West - was 29 with 16 NW last week & 22 with 8 NW week before


ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS SUNDAY


12 with 3 North West - was 10 with 4 North West last week & 20 with 10 NW week before


ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY



5 with 1 North West - was 11 with 6 NW last week & 4 with 2 North West wk before


Three day weekend total 75 - was 50 last week & 46 week before


As you can see the NW total is visibly falling now too as a factor of the total especially

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS ACROSS THE THREE DAYS

By age: 1 (aged 20 - 39), 14 (aged 40 - 59), 28 (aged 60 - 79), 32 (aged 80 PLUS)

By region: East 5, London 6, Midlands 13, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 18, South East 4 , South West 7

North West deaths:

SAT Bolton 3, Knowsley 2, Tameside 2, Chester 1, Christies 1, Manchester 1, Morecambe 1, Pennine Acute, Salford 1, Stockport 1

SUN Manchester 3

MON Morecambe 1