Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Del_Bosque]

Is there an argument to say that loads of young lads going out on the lash during the euros and actually catching covid - who might not have bothered to get a vaccine - is a good thing in terms of herd immunity?

I believe that’s the gist of love rat Neil Fergusons latest thinking.

Short sharp artificial exit wave getting immunity up quickly.

Chicken pox parties for 2021

 

[roubaixtuesday]

131 all settings deaths

23, 511 cases another small fall of `1439

Was 46, 558 last week - almost double.

801. 210 Pillar 1 & 2 tests today v 778, 717 yesterday & 1, 066, 724 last week

Continued remarkable fall, 30% week on week but in reality closer to 50% trend as some of that comes from the previous rising trend in the week before.

Test numbers implying some of it might be down to reduced testing, but still really good to see. I'd guess the initial impact of any behaviour change on 19th is now starting to work through too.

Not making any predictions where this goes next!

 

[Manc in London]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

117

By region:- 6 East, 19 London, 20 Midlands, 36 NE & Yorkshire, 22 North West, 7 South East, 7 South West

Highest in the NE & Yorkshire in months but follows them overtaking NW in patients last week as my hospital data daily showed so was inevitable.

Midlands and London have done the same in the past couple of days to put NW down to 4th. So their deaths will overtake the NW too soon as these things follow a path from cases to admissions to inpatient numbers (how many stay in and for how long versus those discharged) to ventilator rises to deaths.

Over maybe 3 or 4 weeks.

In the short term this will raise the death numbers daily. But the impact of lower cases is yet to be seen (next week or after for that on deaths to be very clear). So hopefully not a very high peak coming.

You would expect so as London and Midlands have around 2m more people. Plus pop density etc..

Interesting point about the Euros.

 

[splinter]

1st vaccine dose 64,585 2nd vaccine dose 171,676..keep jabbing away

 

[Healdplace]

Continued remarkable fall, 30% week on week but in reality closer to 50% trend as some of that comes from the previous rising trend in the week before.

Test numbers implying some of it might be down to reduced testing, but still really good to see. I'd guess the initial impact of any behaviour change on 19th is now starting to work through too.

Not making any predictions where this goes next!

Me neither! As they will probably be wrong given what is happening.

DID this happen in India and if so did it spike up again as we are all expecting/fearing/hoping not

Though they did not have the Euros which do seem very likely to have been a big factor here especially if that temporary spike in male v female cases is true. As that makes little sense otherwise.

 

[Healdplace]

Again today most regions are similar in their behaviour

London is now the highest on its own. Only them and the South West rose today,

Everywhere else down modest amounts.

Yorkshire and North West both down by almost the same number - about 600 - The most today,

North West sub 3000 for first time in 30 days.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester down 242 on the day and 916 week to week from another huge NW weekly fall of 2385.

A little below expectation but not really by much.

In GM itself half the boroughs were under 100. Tameside in the 70s. The others (Bury, Bolton and Trafford in the 80s), But the best of all was Rochdale - recently sky high with Oldham as one of the worst in the UK - but just 74 today.

Outside of Manchester on 228 - a recent low here too - the highest of the rest was Salford on 125.

But almost everywhere with huge week to week falls again - even Stockport down 101 and Wigan down 178 and Manchester down 113.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Admissions:

836 on Sunday - was 734 Saturday and 698 last Sunday

Still rising pretty much everywhere whatever the cases are doing. Though there will be a short lag.


ADMISSIONS SUNDAY BY REGION:- (Last Sunday - SAT - THIS SUN) daily admissions


London 101 - 134 - 130

Midlands 142 - 122 - 133

NE & Yorkshire 164 - 161 - 200


AND NORTH WEST 110 - 131 - 121

So the NW still a lot of people going in but the lowest of the four main regions on latest data.

NE & Yorkshire the most and starting to show in the deaths as we saw today where they had more than the NW.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

PATIENT NUMBERS

Up 108 from 5055 to 5163 V Last Tuesday when numbers rose by 81 to 3894

Rise week to week of 1269 - last week the rise was 924 from 2970 to 3894

So numbers are rising week to week but not by much so far.

REGIONS: UP/DOWN ON YESTERDAY V LAST WEEK



EAST 354 - DOWN 23 V 254

LONDON 1001 - UP 44 V 662 - Biggest recent rise here

MIDLANDS 966 - UP 7 V 749

NE & YORKSHIRE 1168 - UP 16 V 884

SOUTH EAST 456 - UP 10 V 315

SOUTH WEST 321 - UP 28 V 223


AND NORTH WEST

897 - UP 26 V 807


This is a large rise by recent NW numbers

BUT as you see up week to week still easily the least and now below ALL THREE of the other large regions.

THIS IS EXATLY WHAT WE EXPECT TO SEE FROM THE NW PEAKING AND OTHER REGIONS STARTING TO ESCALATE AFTER IT

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND VENTILATOR NUMBERS

738 TODAY up 26 from yesterday.

Last week was 544 - up just 1 from day before.

That rise wk to wk is 194 - week before it was up 74 from 470 to 544

These are rising now other regions are coming on stream not just the NW and this will inevitably create a rise in deaths in coming weeks. 200 deaths in a day UK wide is now very realistic.

But not anything like the 1800 peak in January.


REGIONS: UP/DOWN ON YESTERDAY & NUMBER TODAY V LAST WEEK


EAST Down 1 to 51 V 30

LONDON Up 18 to 179 V 131

MIDLANDS Up 5 to 134 V 102

NE & YORKSHIRE Up 8 to 156 V 99

SOUTH EAST down 4 to 43 V 30

SOUTH WEST Up 3 to 47 V 28

Big rises everywhere week to week except in the North West

NORTH WEST down 3 to 128 V 122


NW - so long the biggest number here - now below London, Midlands and NE & Yorkshire and the smallest wk to wk numbers,


THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO FEWER NW DEATHS IN COMING WEEKS